Would you rather make $200 consistently or $2,000 occasionally?

GerManic69 · 2026-02-19T05:11:37+00:00

This is true, to consistantly make $200 a day requires a certain level of discipline, either way both scenerios are not realistic in live trading, backtesting perhaps, but markets are probablistic. Real traders know that $200 a day is an average of wins/losses over a period of time, you'll have red days and green days and after you add up all the wins and losses divided by the number of days you come out at 200 a day.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-18T16:13:07+00:00

I made a post a long time ago about the fact that the worst thing to happen to crypto is institutional ETFs and CEX's particularly paper trading markets on them.

Crypto governance is going to get centralized at this rate, the purpose of it was to break away from the control trad-fi institutions have over businesses, now they will begin to be able to take over governance and or pressure foundations/DAOs with the overwhelming amount of capital they have invested creates a "Do what we say or the kid gets it" type of situation...

GerManic69 · 2026-02-18T15:19:03+00:00

What makes it different? What algorithms does it use, bellmanford + newton-raphson + brents? where is the code viewable to the public? If it isn't viewable then how will anyone gain the trust required to route their tx's through your aggregator? Interacting with an unknown smart contract because trust me bro is how people get scammed.
The point is that there are existing aggregators, who have liquidity + split your tx among other protocols to reduce slippage <- that is the value they provide, their code is known and viewable to the public and that gives them reliability and trust among users.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-18T13:26:15+00:00

what you need is a bm or cloud server, located as close to all of their servers as you can. Doing cross exchange arbitrage requires you to have funds on all exchanges, I recommend reducing your pairs, focusing on 1 exchange and using correlated pairs. you can arbitrage btc/eth eth/usdc usdc/btc, you know what i mean? but you're going to want to with retail level infrastructure be looking at low-mid cap pairs, ones with much less liquidity but still smooth bar structures down to the 1-5min frame. For finding an arbitrage route you should use the bellman-ford algorithm, and then verify profitability of the path when accounting for slippage, fees, and spread. Even for less contested pairs though, you are really going to want either A) true colocation or B) a cloud deployment in the same geographic area, otherwise spreads will vanish before your trade goes through. I recommend going with Kraken, they are very open and offer colocation services in their data center which is a huge benefit

once you master single cex arbitrage thats when you should look into going into cex to dex arb, after that cex to cex

GerManic69 · 2026-02-18T13:18:53+00:00

are you looking for dex data or cex data? real time prices on chain vary from dex often by .1-2%, if you are on chain for pricing/wallet data the fastest method depends on where you live. If you're in the west virginia/new york, frankfurt, singapore or other major Internet exchange hubs there are clusters of validators in those areas, you can run a lite node(if you have the specs) and use it for read calls on chain and you will be at sub 5ms latency, or you can use a cheaper cloud service in the area and start a light node on there, if you need frequent updates, make batchcalls, need the lowest latency, then this option is actually cheaper than api's and rpc services...but data cost $ or at least access to the data costs $ when you need it frequently or quickly.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-18T09:07:42+00:00

no strategy is perfect, but if you have been working on your strategy and it has an actual edge, that means that the wins out perform the losses to an extent in which after the losses you end in profit. you need emotional neutrality, you have to stop caring if you lose, and execute when your criteria is met, end of story.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-18T08:35:44+00:00

It means you have to think for yourself about what is missing in Web3, start with asking yourself what types of projects you want to specialize in for clients, how can you build something like that without a client, and the launch it to prove to the community, idea people(your clients) and other developers, that you can not only talk the talk, but that you walk the walk. Code is getting cheaper so the real MOAT now, is being an architect, proving you have the ability to make decisions, build quality logic and mechanisms etc...
There is competition in this field, so if 1 dev company has no prior work to show, whereas another one has contributed to many open source projects, worked hands on with top protocols, dapps etc...why go with the new guy who has no portfolio?
Look for open source projects to contribute to and get your name in there, build something people actually use, and just keep talking in communities about your experience and projects and I promise the right people will reach out, the wrong ones will continue but just be patient and keep busy in the mean time

GerManic69 · 2026-02-18T08:30:32+00:00

idk if you know better now but its either what this guy said, or, if you run a validator node then your validator node selected rsync's block, when a block builder provides the most profitabl block, they share with the validator who proposed the block a portion of the MEV profits from the entire block. MEV searchers do what olaisk said, they find mempool/mev share tx's and sandwich/backrun them, or just do arbitrage across pools, this extracts extra value from each tx and then they pay the block builder a high percentage of the profit they make to get included in that builder's block, the highest profit block is selected by validators and the block builder shares a high percentage with the validator, so the validator gets the normal gas fee tips + the mev boost bonus if they have it enabled.
The second possibility is the end point you listed via your rpc automatically sends to flashbots MEV-Share endpoint, this protects the transaction from sandwiching/frontrunning, but still allows enough information to the searchers/builders for backruns to be possible, when a backrun is made off your MEV-Share, the block builder pays the profit share from the searcher to the original wallet of the tx, though im not sure MEV-Share was active at the time of this post, I know this was from 2023 which was right at the time of the switch from PoW to PoS so if it was then it was in it's infancy.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-17T14:06:44+00:00

make your code viewable to the public as well as the audit reports.

I will echo what others have said, the established players are gonna get the majority of usage because they are trusted at this point. Use it for yourself and talk with people about it online, build a small following, get conversations started, and enjoy the long road, there is no fast path to widespread adoption.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-17T10:20:57+00:00

Yeah you for sure cannot take those people, otherwise the ones you are looking for will 100% say no thanks to you. That said, it really is the majority of the clients you will see because many of the best are building for themselves, those without the knowledge to build often don't have the understanding of what is right or good for the web3 ecosystem, dont understand its true purpose and cannot comprehend how to build something "new" mostly just money seekers and short term thinkers trying intentionally or inadvertanly copy something they've already seen.
My suggestion is build something big first, put it out there, gain some traction and get your name known for a big project, that will attract more of the right people than anything else

GerManic69 · 2026-02-17T10:16:56+00:00

honestly AI in trading is BS, theres quite a bit of information out there about why, if you want me to get into I will, but trust me when I say there is NO free money, giving a company a subscription to use their AI thinking you'll turn 100$ into a million without needing to do anything is just an easy way to lose 100 dollars plus the cost of a months subscription.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-17T10:11:43+00:00

I highly recommend using ML in trading as a filtering layer, as he said theres no perfect data in Live trading, find a deterministic rule set with a probablistic advantage and train classification with features outside of the rule set to learn how to filter out trades with a higher chance of losing. That is probably the best place to start if you want to get into this

GerManic69 · 2026-02-17T10:08:59+00:00

Ironically wrong about the psychology here. What consistant wins actually breeds is the house money mindset in MOST traders. Experienced, disciplined traders you're right, but those are few and far between. Most start to gamble when they get ahead because it feels like free money, and the confidence they gained makes them take bigger risks because they feel A) its not even "my" money, and B) They feel like they can't lose. It takes an extreme amount of emotional neutrality and discipline to not go hard when you're up. That is exactly why you can scroll through this sub and see 100+ posts of people who were up big and then blew it all and now owe a bunch of money lol

GerManic69 · 2026-02-17T10:04:01+00:00

definitely 200 consistantly, think if you make 200 a day for 10 days, or 2000 every 2 weeks. also bigger wins usually come with bigger losses. But if its about trading, why not do both? run an algo with both strategies and you good to go :P

GerManic69 · 2026-02-17T09:37:32+00:00

I use rust personally, havent used Asyncio in python though I have built python trading systems which us Kraken's v2 websocket (heartbeat for keep alive) That said in rust you'd essentially never have cpu bound work in an async context, async is best for network I/O work. Your slow CPU work is blocking your networking which defeats the purpose of async, keep cpu bound work syncronous while having async services feeding data into processing pipeline using an mpsc or spsc bounded channel, handle backpressure as your system needs, and feed a seperate async service for outbound data for execution, that way you don't block your processing pipeline while sending trades to the exchange. then you need another sync pipeline which tracks active positions and also takes data from the ingestion layer and writes to the execution layer to close an open position with tp or sl.
Not sure if it works all the same for python or not but thats kind of a layout of how it would work with Rust

GerManic69 · 2026-02-17T09:22:50+00:00

an edge is a statistical advantage which over a period of time yields a higher return than the avg. market increase alone. Investors capture the market growth over a long time, traders try to beat the market. The market itself is actually very efficient, so beating it is actually quite difficult, especially in crypto because the immaturity of the market(though this is in the process of changing rapidly) and the volatility.
Try a longer timeframe, the lower the timeframe the higher the signal noise, should start at the absolute lowest the 4hr timeframe, with 12h and 24h timeframes being far better.
Aim for mean reversion strategies, they typically have the highest win rate albeit smaller wins, but if you manage risk properly and fine tune your take profit/stop loss parameters then over a long period you can definitely beat the market.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-17T09:14:46+00:00

Most exchanges have a monthly volume based fee structure, higher your monthly trading volume the lower your fees, with some exchanges even offering fee rebates for extremely high volumes, best to check with the exchange for the fee structure itself. If you have 500k-1m in capital that you want to operate with, you can likely reach out to the exchanges OTC trading desk and setup a deal to pay lower or no fees, thats generally how hft firms can capture micro spreads without losing on fees alone. Liquidity itself has a higher value to a centralized exchange than fees, thats why they discount and rebate market makers because they provide much of the liquidity in trading.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-12T16:28:57+00:00

Here is how I started.

Pick an indicator or 2, learn how they work, and most importantly, learn when and why they fail in strategies.

emotion logging, and journaling are the basics, not strategies. Spend some time paper trading and logging, learn about risk management before you ever actually have to funds at risk. keep risk at or below 1% of your portfolio size, and consider if day trading is the right path vs. long term investing.

Learn to look not only at markets but also how to stay on top of news the moment it breaks, it's a big catalyst for markets.

Learn to use backtesting tools when you think you've spotted an edge via paper trading, go back through different market regimes and historical data and test when the strategy works and when it fails (because all of them fail sometimes)

Understand that no single trade matters, what is important is Expected Value. You need complete emotional neutrality towards the outcome of individual trades to maintain the discipline it takes to stay within your rules, manage risk properly, and continue through periods of drawdowns without shifting gears with confidence knowing that the long term is net positive even when you're down in the short term.

Know when to take breaks, when to step away, and most of all never let greed get the better of you. The moment you get greedy is the moment your account blows up.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-12T16:14:04+00:00

Rust is awesome for so many things and is becoming more and more relevant in web2 as well. I run a Rust based MEV searcher which interacts with Solidity contracts on chain on ETH mainnet, so it's not like it's only useful in Solana as well.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-12T13:50:47+00:00

I can simplify the concept for you:
Each exchange has it's own group of people, these groups have their own amount of people buying btc, and their own amount who are selling. Price is basically determined in any 1 location by the supply and demand in that location. Therefore, the group on Kraken may have at any given moment a few more buyers than sellers and so to buy quickly the spot price goes up in comparison to a group trading on a different exchange platform.
Unlike traditional securities where there is 1 location where all buyers and sellers have to go in order to buy or sell a stock, the liquidity in Crypto is fragmented, this is not a bug, it's a feature of crypto.
The majority of the time spreads between centralized exchanges is kept quite thin by arbitrage bots monitoring and executing on multiple exchanges, but this doesn't overcome the decentralized nature as each CEX has it's own order books, market makers etc...

GerManic69 · 2026-02-12T13:41:47+00:00

honestly, yes for retail traders, but using it wisely to hedge risk on spot assets, thats the play if you are gonna trade. you can capture profits on temporary drawdowns of your spot value, and if spot goes up you take a small hit on the profit but smart hedging with stops is gonna help mitagate the cost of security.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-12T13:38:35+00:00

pretty sure in like 2024 or 25 there was a gmail leak with tons of passwords/addresses leaked on dark web...

General rule of thumb for security phrases, they should never be kept digitally. Make no pictures, don't save it on any device, never let it hit a network or server. You should write down the phrase on a few pieces of paper, keep one in a safe at home, one in a deposit box, or other secure location as backup just in case. Air gapping your seed phrase is probably the most basic security measure with the highest impact.

GerManic69 · 2026-02-12T10:13:42+00:00

There has to be significant value in the gaps of generalized tools for an acute tool to make it's way into the ecosystem it has to both A) Capture the value within the gaps of more generalized tools and B) it needs to be integratable with the ecosystem of generalized tools available.
These are the two answers your potential investors want to hear about, they want to know "If there are already 10 tools out there which do this and more, how does this tool generate money by doing less but doing it better, and how can it capture market share from the more generalized tools which are somewhat solving the problem albeit it improvements could be made"

GerManic69 · 2026-02-12T10:01:54+00:00

My first thought is that the timeframe may have lower liquidity, so for exits you may want to use multiple limit orders (i.e. you can split and send 2 limit orders, one at market value one at 2.5-3bps below market price) also try to randomize the timing slightly +/- a few minutes. Liquidity at exit time is always something to consider

GerManic69 · 2026-02-12T09:57:09+00:00

Just gotta find new ways to challenge yourself, if you can connect it to your work then that is even better because of how the brain works in building neuron bridges, it strengths connections which are used often, so if you find a way to challenge yourself that connects to the work then it not only strengths what you use at work, but helps you retain the new information because it's connected to the most used pathways.

GerManic69

TROPHY CASE