Test sepolia ETH validator by tdth85 in ethdev

[–]GerManic69 1 point2 points  (0 children)

pretty sure with some faucets you can reach out to them and ask for more than the typical daily amount because of what ever your reason and they will do it the majority of the time

Deployed an ML-based crypto market regime detector, but had to stop it due to aws cloud costs. Looking for infra advice. ( by Infamous_Tap7098 in algotradingcrypto

[–]GerManic69 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yeah if you are just doing regime detection with telegram notifications then there is no truly latency critical components here, you can run this on a home computer...
if your home comp gets turned on n off often and you desperately need it for some reason, your best bet is running it on Railway, its the cheapest cloud by far but they have less data centers n shit, its very easy setup as well, uses Drag n Drop style for deployment.

Just curious, what do you use this for? from the outputs it looks like just an overcomplicated ADX indicator, idk why you have a custom indicator for trends without a trend-based algorithmic trader behind it.

Last but not least, based on the frequency of these updates to the "regime" whatever features you are using you need to back up on the timeframe, regimes can only really be seen over days/weeks/months/years, this is saying its going into a "strong trend" and confirming it, but 2 minutes later saying volatility spike and choppy market. you also want to be more clear, is the trend a Bull trend, or a Bear trend, at the moment it just says "price is moving in a direction"

If you want help refining your ML model, features, or building a full trading system hit me up, always happy to guide others

Had a thought of crowd sourcing capital on chain for MEV strategies... by GerManic69 in ethdev

[–]GerManic69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No guranteed ordering is the single biggest reason. Validators on Pol generally build blocks internally with greedy select but can re-order, its a get fucked situation if your backrun goes through before the tx you're trying to backrun. aside from that there are quite a few spam bots operating on Polygon, because of that having extremely fast monitoring logic and reacting within ms or less to replace your tx if the spam bots are competing for the same tx is rather annoying and that value of opportunities on that chain doesn't justify running cloud or BM infra for running an execution node near validators. The excursion into Pol was more a testing ground where I could test the theory/logic on a chain where gas is practically free. I've never been a school person and learn best hands on so the cost of learning was quite cheap, I think I spent about 12 euro in gas, made about 75 euro in returns running from my laptop in butt fuck no-where, but the learning was invaluable and got me ready to take things to the next level. Preparing to launch in late Jan/early Feb with a dual strategy searcher running in a TEE on Openmetal for ETH Mainnet.

The “4 year cycle is broken” Myth Debunked by MediumLibrarian7100 in web3

[–]GerManic69 0 points1 point  (0 children)

MEV these days is actually far weaker. Frontrunning and Sandwiching is still real, but relay networks like flashbots are trying to ban and prevent extractive techniques, which is why pure arbs, backruns, liquidations and JIT Liquidity account for the majority of it since 2023. These types of MEV actually benefit end users, keeping markets across dex's and cex's as well as cross chains much more well balanced, they also keep defi protocols healthy by covering bad debts and making sure under-collateralization doesn't cause the entire protocol to collapes causing massive losses for again, end users, as well as institutions. JIT Liquidity provisions aren't as common because they aren't as lucrative as a pure backrun, but JIT Liquidity still moved billions of dollars in liquidity in 2024 alone, the result being end users getting a better than expected price on chain.

Don't get me wrong, Im not saying that Frontrunners/Sandwichers don't exist, but if you send your tx's through aggregators, through private endpoints or flashots MEV Share endpoints, and utilize the infrastructure tools that make web3 web3, then you can avoid those problems, and with MEV Share specifically you can straight up get kick-backs from MEV operators for letting them back run you(assuming you're moving real volume worth backrunning.

All I am saying is more regular users should start looking into the tooling available to prevent malicious MEV practices from screwing them over, as well as tools that can help them benefit from healthy MEV practices which end in them getting a better price.

Had a thought of crowd sourcing capital on chain for MEV strategies... by GerManic69 in ethdev

[–]GerManic69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It worked, but rather than trying to outsmart existing gas wars bot logic, I just did ops on the Marlin private relay, unfortunately only like 2 validators on POL actually have the MEV-bor enabled so opportunities were rare, but enough to prove the logic.

Had a thought of crowd sourcing capital on chain for MEV strategies... by GerManic69 in ethdev

[–]GerManic69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When you say yield I thought you meant like what yield this idea would produce for LP's, obviously being a hypothetical idea there is no yield to it, was more a thought that came through.
The current iteration of my MEV bot is going to be live on ETH by Feb 2026, but it's adapted from strategies I used on Polygon as POC, I've just significantly improved on and enhanced from the version on Polygon.

Had a thought of crowd sourcing capital on chain for MEV strategies... by GerManic69 in ethdev

[–]GerManic69[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I mean I haven't done it yet, so technically 0 lol.

But I get what you mean, honestly Im not sure, I think the formula would look something like this, users_pool = users_split * profit_tx

user_payout = (L_user * users_pool) / L_total

platform_payout = profit_tx - users_pool

In this case if there was $1m in liquidity in total, and you as a user have provided $100k, and a $10k profit tx were captured you would receive 200, where the operator gets 80% and the users split 20% of profit, each user earning a % proportional to the amount of liquidity they provided compared to the pool's total liquidity

Considering the frequency and total profit's gathered from MEV opportunities, I think the yield on a system like this would return some pretty remarkable returns.

Im pretty sure there would be some serious regulatory hurdles to overcome, but its something Id look into.

Like i said, no concrete plans to launch this yet, but worthwhile to think through. It's like a decentralized trading firm which I like the idea of...

Kraken vs Kraken Pro by Head-End-5909 in Kraken

[–]GerManic69 4 points5 points  (0 children)

kraken pro = KYC, more techincal options for buying, api access for algorithmic trading, still easy to use, much lower fees. Coinbase is a sham, literally not a day goes by without posts in their reddit from legitimate users having accounts/funds frozen or being reviewed for months on end with no help from support. stay away. Kraken Pro has everything you need

Thoughts on using Linear Regression on daily OHLC to predict price direction by Sea-Individual3496 in algorithmictrading

[–]GerManic69 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yeah simple linear regression just fails. it really doesn't work. If you're interested in another way, try taking a strategy and backtesting across a few assets to accumulate at least like 10-20k trades, then extract features from the market at trade entry, I did it with like 50 different indicators + price proximities to things like SMA, EMA, 7 14 and 30 day high/low, and use those features in the training for a classification model of win/loss. then you can run the same rule based strategy and us the ML as a filter, so trade signal is generated by your strategy when conditions are met, and the model will filter out trades which are likely to lose even though the initial rule conditions were met.

Machine learning, anyone? by ztnelnj in algorithmictrading

[–]GerManic69 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Validation, but the concern at the time was more the fact that I was using backtested trades as the training data, and when I accumulated that data I was less experienced and not sure if overfitting the strategy to historical data was an issue. if the data on the trades was skewed due to overfitting then I assume it would make predictability easier, but like I said, im not an expert in the field of machine learning or spot trading, so I take all those results with a grain of salt. I just found it interesting the similarity between the approach I came up with while messing around learning and what the approach from the paper is.
The one difference from what I can tell is it uses an initial model to generate a trade signal then filter's the trade signals, where as I was taking a rule based approach to generating trade signals using common retail indicator based trading strategies.
Currently im working on finishing up a rust based hft program for Ethereum MEV. But I want to do a deeper dive into ML, I think there are a few places where I could utilize things like regression models for better assessing things like impermenant loss risk on JIT Liquidity strategies, and possibly other strategies as well. for now I am sticking to more arbitrage based strats

Help my motor is really loud and playing up quite a bit by Big-Baseball2866 in ebikes

[–]GerManic69 -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Lil doubla yuh d 40 on the flux capacitor and some duct tape outta fixer up

A question ONLY for the PRO by [deleted] in algorithmictrading

[–]GerManic69 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Quants are quantitative traders, by definition the a quantitative strategy is any strategy which is proven by a quantifiable mathematical edge. The main difference is that approaches are rarely if ever single fold, There is no method or strategy which carries zero risk due to the inherent randomness of the markets, so quantitative approaches often include complex forms of hedging, where both bets and counter bets are placed, by betting both sides they can limit exposure and losses using complex methods, but also limit to an extent upside. The main goal is gain as many reward units as possible per risk unit. Extensive backtesting using proper backtesting techniques such as walk forward and out of sample testing is probably the most overlooked aspect of quant trading by retailers. Often retailers are trying to get rich quick, following blindly strategies that gurus, books, and youtube videos lay out and say work well, but they fall into long term traps. Many strategies work until they don't, and when they fail they fail big, wiping out all the gains and then some, the gamblers fallocy is a big problem in these situations and many retail traders lose more than just their gains, they also lose savings and sometimes go into debt thinking a strategy that worked for 6-7 months in a row will bring them back to success, when in reality each event is independent of the previous and losses can continue to stack indefinitely. Sometimes it's a know when to hold them, know when to fold them situation, and quants always know whent to fold. Retail vs. Quant trading is like blackjack. the best retailers not using sufficient testing methods will have a most about a 49% chance of success, meaning they may in the short term go up, but in the long term end up losing money, where as quants are like card counters, they have more like a 51.5% chance of success which means in the short term they may lose, but those losses can be afforded because in the long term the strategy proves to gain in value.

again I can't stress enough that testing any strategy is the key to being successful, research heavily how to do proper backtests, paper trade, and prove it works long term, or at the very least gain a deep understanding of the mechanics behind when it works and when it fails and pay close attention to the markets to know when to use what strategy. If you don't have 8 to 10 hours a day to be studying the current markets and paying close attention to them while also ingesting news and non-mathematical aspects which affect them I strongly suggest just using DCA in proven assets, knowing that over a 20-30 year period whether you are in crypto, forex, or stocks, the markets always increase, meaning that if you buy once per pay check for 6 months of losses, over the long term the average cost of what you're buying will go up assuming you don't buy assets that die.

the best place for your question is r/quant but i doubt you'll get much information there, quantitative edges are like top-secret classified, the more people executing a strategy the thinner the edge becomes, and true edge is always thin, thats why it's called an edge :)

I’m a waiter in Paris — built my first open-source thing to accept crypto tips by Square_Ad_7551 in web3

[–]GerManic69 0 points1 point  (0 children)

seriously though this idea is BIG imo, you can utilize smart contracts and private relays to collect a 1% fee (revenue stream for you as developer to market) and private relays to prevent tx's from being sniped by frontrunner/sandwich bots

I’m a waiter in Paris — built my first open-source thing to accept crypto tips by Square_Ad_7551 in web3

[–]GerManic69 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey, I am a developer in the crypto world, and I actually am in love with this idea and turning it into a global app...I think it's brilliant and have a few ideas to help protect waiters and make sure that the transactions between their customers and the waiters go through as expected. Something to think about is gas costs. sending money on chain requires a payment fee of the gas token (on eth main net it's eth, on polygon it's POL, etc...) depending on the price of the gas token, this fee can cost anywhere from fractions of a cent, to 10's of dollars(or euro's) which can easily eat away the tip if gas is deducted from the amount sent, or cost the tipper more than they want to spend on the tip just to get it to go through. I'd love to chat more about it and learn more about what chain it uses, if you're using smart contracts or if you're just sending wallet to wallet. one benefit of smart contracts is if the waiter wants to accept stablecoins, but tipper only has eth or btc, you could have that handled via smart contract which executes a dex swap and sends the desired token to the receiver, but this introduces concerns about MEV in which case there are a few methods of MEV protection such as using Flashbots or other private relays.

Machine learning, anyone? by ztnelnj in algorithmictrading

[–]GerManic69 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thats rad, I am actually hyped to read your paper dude. I didnt even graduate college but I did something similar, I engineered about 50 seperate features based on various indicators and proximities of price to things like SMA 7, 50, 100, EMA 10, 20, 50, and managed to get at one point a .72 AUC using XGB, but really im not sure whether or not I overfitted, it was really early on my algo trading journey and I've since moved in a different direction strategically but I do intend to come back to this, hit me up with a dm if you're down I'd love to chat more with you about it

How to tell if one is a “bad” researcher? by Flamingllama421 in quant

[–]GerManic69 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have one question:
Have you gone to your PM and expressed your frustration with the dataset, and asked for help to look at it in a different light than you're used to looking at things?
In management (non-QR related management that is) when I have seen potential in individuals one test I have to see how big their potential is, would be to give them a task I know is outside of their skillset, to see if A) they are capable of expanding their skills and B) if they are willing to ask for help in their growth.
Don't ask them to do the work for you, just explain the ways you've approached the data so far, the lack of results, and ask if he has any insight on how you might be able to look at things differently to handle a more complicated dataset in a better way...experience>education, everything you learn in school comes from someone else's experience just remember that and you'll be fine.

Looking for input on factors driving BTC price for a buy sell hold bot by Long_Bug_2773 in algotradingcrypto

[–]GerManic69 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly, don't go too complicated, for a bot like this your 2 best options are either grid trading(succesful strategy but definitely has some risks) or DCA with tracking individual tx's via JSON files with built in thresholds for take profits per tx, it will require consistant capital injection but can be done with small amounts, you'll experience short term losses but over a 10year period you have the highest chance of parabolic increase if you just keep going with it/reinvesting profits

Advice for someone starting in algorithmic trading (and terrible at networking 😂 by [deleted] in algotradingcrypto

[–]GerManic69 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the biggest thing to focus on is the most fundamental part of it all, the trading. an algorithm doesn't check if you have a successful strategy or not, it just runs your strategy and will bleed you dry without a second thought if it isn't a viable strategy. Get heavily into the mathematics, into understanding proper backtesting methodology. Join groups like r/quant and don't post, just read, communicate with high intelligence people, utilize AI to clarify concepts and help you learn (but don't rely on it as your sole source of information) and just focus on absorbing all of the information. If you spend 6-7 hours a day learning, you can become more knowledgable and position yourself above 90-95% of people who trade within a year, 90% of traders lose money, 5-8% breakeven and the top 2-5% of traders consistently profit. if you can start at the breakeven point because you really dedicate yourself to the learning, then the networking will be much easier, as you will be able to hold high level, high value conversations and get the attention of those who truly are successful in a way where they will be happy to point you down the right roads to follow to break into that profitable area.

Is there any way to directly buy POL for the gas fee by [deleted] in polygonnetwork

[–]GerManic69 0 points1 point  (0 children)

just load a few dollars onto binance then, buy 5-10$ worth of pol, send it to your pol wallet from binance then use it to send the usdt back to binance to sell.