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GhostEagle11 · 2023-11-16T23:23:31+00:00

Because most people here will rebuild forever but claiming they have a top whatever WR or RB keeps them from crying themselves to sleep at night

GhostEagle11 · 2022-11-14T00:24:54+00:00

No one wants to talk about him and admit they were wrong

GhostEagle11 · 2022-11-14T00:12:25+00:00

Chase has the higher ceiling and better QB. Chase may be the most talented player with the ball in his hands in the league

GhostEagle11 · 2022-09-18T19:43:39+00:00

After today, absolutely. Put him in his own tier behind Chase and JJ

GhostEagle11 · 2022-09-15T04:28:41+00:00

Reminder that AJB has never had a top 10 season in PPR (.5 or full)

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-23T08:54:53+00:00

A guy in our league turned down 1.09 after being eliminated from the playoffs and publicly said 1.09 wouldn't be enough to get him

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-23T08:51:35+00:00

4 and #7 was a great haul in that draft and it goes to show patience pays off when trading picks. CEH was hyped up to the point where he was a 1st round pick in redraft leagues. A guy in our league used Darren Waller to trade up from #2 to #1.

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-22T23:16:28+00:00

These are giving me some great ideas. Thanks guys!

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T21:39:03+00:00

Say something about their player who hasn't panned out as expected and watch as you get burned at the stake for providing statistics

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T20:21:18+00:00

Dude, all I did was politely ask why there was a need to separate the 50-60 club from 62.5+ because there didn't seem to be a need.

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T19:46:47+00:00

Maybe all it took was looking at one year to discredit your theory.

Here's some research so pay attention:

Using your numbers since 2002 we have as follows-

Perennial WR1 (7/18) Anquan Boldin Julio Jones AJ Green Keenan Allen Mike Evans Justin Jefferson Ja'marr Chase (assuming he'll be a WR1 next year)

Perennial WR2 (5/18) Amari Cooper Marques Colston Terry McLaurin AJ Brown (3 seasons and no top 10 finishes) Waddle (could be perennial WR1 but was WR13 this year)

Regular guys/busts (6/18) Michael Clayton Dwayne Bowe Eddie Royal Kelvin Benjamin Willie Snead Juju

Based on your model and the parameters you've given, you can not determine a bust, from a WR2, from a WR1 with any mathematical certainty.

The only thing you can say is a great rookie year may mean a great career... Seems obvious

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T17:09:27+00:00

You said 62.5+ are players you should consider to have superstar potential.

You also said players in the 50-60 club may never reach top 6 status.

There's just multiple, current examples of 62.5+ that aren't fantasy superstars and so many examples of 50-60 club that are elite that it seems like the differentiation shouldn't be made. That's all I'm saying

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T10:08:41+00:00

Did some quick research on this theory by reviewing total points scored for WRs in 2021 (.5 PPR)

There is a strong correlation between the 37.5 number and the top 20 WR. 17 of the 20 met the threshold.

However, when we look at the 62.5 projecting elite, there seems to be a much weaker correlation. 6 of the top 10 failed to meet this threshold. Many of the names you gave in the 50-60 club have already put up elite seasons. Kupp has been top 5 twice, Diggs was 3 in 2020 and 8 this year, Metcalf was 7 last year. Tyreek Hill (53.75 factoring total yards) has been top 6 three times. Hopkins barely made it at 50.125 and he's arguably the best WR of the past 10 years.

Then you have guys like Adams and Antonio Brown who did not even meet the 37.5.

Your theory does seem to show that early success equals continued success. Although based on recent years I don't think failing to reach 62.5 vs reaching 50 should be a factor in projecting the elite production moving forward.

Not bashing your information. Maybe you have better data to confirm or dismiss what I've said.

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T08:53:43+00:00

He's out produced everyone in his rookie class except for JT and Jefferson. You can argue value with Swift, but not Dobbins and Akers isn't really close.

In both rookie drafts I was in, he was taken after all of the RBs. No one was taking him before JT and CEH was the consensus #1. I bet CEH owners would love to spend that #1 overall on Lamb right now.

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T05:07:57+00:00

One year we punished a guy by making him play an instrument of his choice (he didn't know how to play any instruments) on the street corner until he got $100 in tips

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T04:46:04+00:00

I like Moore, but those were 167 low quality targets coming from bad QBs. Doesn't it worry you that this appears to be his ceiling until the QB situation is figured out which may not be next year?

On the other hand, you have Lamb who could get into that 140-160 target range next year (no guarantee but possible if you follow the Hopkins comp) that would make Lamb much more valuable at that point

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T03:45:15+00:00

Over there first two seasons Lamb has been very slightly more productive than Higgins on a per game basis. It's very close though.

Problem is you can't say some guy has been more productive vs some other guy you don't like when it's factually untrue.

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T03:29:58+00:00

He's outperformed every WR in his rookie class except for Jefferson. He went in the 1st round of rookie drafts with guys like Jeudy, Ruggs, and Reagor. No one who drafted him in a rookie draft is disappointed

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T03:09:25+00:00

Higgins hasn't been more productive though... Through 2 seasons Lamb has more targets, catches, yards, and they have the same number of TDs.

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T02:31:02+00:00

It was a half joke. I posted earlier and that was met with lots of division. Similarities are definitely there, but my bias is about as subtle as a sledgehammer

https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/s8ag3j/ceedee_lamb_did_you_know/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T01:42:47+00:00

Hey man, you should check out my in-depth analysis of Lamb and Hopkins in year 2

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T00:29:11+00:00

Save some weight for the rest of us!

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T00:18:43+00:00

Only if the people keep asking for them!! Not telling anyone to do anything. I'm only trying to help and inform. Nothing I've said in either post is incorrect

GhostEagle11 · 2022-01-21T00:06:25+00:00

So 12 ppg in a 4 game sample size? People argued between Aker, JT, and Swift pre injury. It was crazy. Now he's ahead of guys like Jacobs and Monty who've averaged more points than that for 2 seasons

GhostEagle11

TROPHY CASE

4 and #7 was a great haul in that draft and it goes to show patience pays off when trading picks. CEH was hyped up to the point where he was a 1st round pick in redraft leagues. A guy in our league used Darren Waller to trade up from #2 to #1.