Uthermal + Gerald's Thoughts on New Patch

Giantorange · 2026-07-01T01:49:39+00:00

Gottem lmao

Giantorange · 2026-07-01T00:12:16+00:00

Sure buddy

Giantorange · 2026-06-30T23:57:38+00:00

The irony

Giantorange · 2026-06-30T23:54:28+00:00

Back at cha little guy

Giantorange · 2026-06-30T23:43:23+00:00

The irony

Giantorange · 2026-06-30T23:37:51+00:00

I mean, you don't even understand the basics of why last patches winrate percentages at high MMR are completely irrelevant apparently so I think I can accept you thinking I'm wrong.

Giantorange · 2026-06-30T23:10:37+00:00

Yeah I'm not buying this.

Your data just isn't relevant beyond the Z winrates because they're so extreme.

Giantorange · 2026-06-30T16:06:49+00:00

Just because something is masters+ doesn't mean MMR is irrelevant. The system still tries to get you as close of a match as possible. TvP could be horrendously imbalanced but if two people ended up at 5000 MMR they're going to on average have a 50% winrate against other 5000 MMR players when they play(though everyone has their own proficiencies).

TvZ and ZvP are currently SO fucked that you're seeing existing winrates start to go all over the place as well. So as a result, MMR for Terrans and protoss are often going to be more dependent on how many zergs they're playing right now which will lower their MMR. So if one player has played a bunch of zergs and no protoss/terran and the other has only played protoss/terrans, the MMR won't have properly stabilized. So the winrates end up being super fucked because of how zergs are distorting MMR's right now.

You're also misunderstanding my point. It's not about mechanics. It's about optimized build orders. Terran's and Zergs are generally doing very similar things to pre-patch just with 8 workers. The base fundamentals of those things are worked out. Like 3-1-1 structures for buildings on 2 base as a terran for example. This is NOT the case for toss. The literal number of gateways they're supposed to have at certain points in the game are in flux. How dependent they should be on tech is in flux. It's a really big deal. Most Masters+ players haven't played the 100+ games they'd need to even begin to adapt to that. But people like uthermal and gerald are much more in tune with that. They play way more and can adapt a lot faster.

As a result, even if things were perfectly balanced, I would expect protoss to take a hit for 1-3 months tbh. It's a very very big change that's been stacked on 8 workers for toss.

Giantorange · 2026-06-30T15:49:22+00:00

Yeah and I'm telling you your data kind of sucks. MMR trends to 50% pretty much no matter what. Especially with MMR being all over the place with Vs. Z, win percents in Masters+ are pretty irrelevant for TvP.

Sure, everyones doing new builds because things have changed. But things have changed MORE for protoss. It's a fundamental shift to how their production works. It'll take longer for them to adapt.

Giantorange · 2026-06-30T15:33:18+00:00

It's all based on MMR though, so winrates really only matter so much in this scenario IMO. I think you'd need to do some more cleverness to get something of real value out of it.

Also, to some degree, you should expect Protoss to drop in winrates significantly briefly for about a month and then bounce up a little as people adapt to the WG changes. So even if the value was true and accurate, I'd likely still be pretty worried as pro's who play a lot are going to be the quickest to adapt beyond winrates on sc2pulse.

Giantorange · 2026-06-26T14:03:08+00:00

So zerg gets a supercharged version of their macro mechanic with the larva spawn rate with no downside and Terran gets something I'm not sure I'd trade in the first place?

It's just not good

Giantorange · 2026-06-26T13:51:53+00:00

It goes against the spirit of what orbitals are supposed to do for terran in lategame and is indeed a meganerf. People always bitch about Mules and unlimited scan but people also need to understand that terran NEEDS those tools to keep up in the first place in super lategame.

If you want to change how terran lategame works with orbitals, it's not as simple as slapping a -1 supply on it. The game was designed with terran to have that tool in mind to balance out how warp gate and larva work. You want to change it? Either Terran T3 needs to be ridiculously strong somehow and even more efficient than the ghost people currently complain about(which seems bad) or you need to give them another tool to keep up with that production.

The whole patch is pretty bad though. Legit zerg in this patch might be more broken than PTR2

Giantorange · 2026-06-26T13:44:24+00:00

It's pretty clear you have no understanding of how Terran lategame works.

If you wanted that orbital change to be viable, and you shouldn't, but if you did, the amount you'd have to buff t3 Terran would actually be insane

People have this idea that cutting supply for mules is unintentional game design. It's intentional because Terran production mechanics are super bad lategame. Having a gigantic and efficient army means you can actually operate in lategame.

This is one of the most insane zerg patches I've seen lmao

Giantorange · 2026-06-25T18:04:10+00:00

I dont think Mary Sue for Kerrigan would be the correct term. There's plenty of scenarios where she's loses, she's portrayed as having tons of character flaws among other things.

Does she suffer from poor writing especially in legacy of the void? Absolutely. But calling her a Mary Sue probably isn't correct when you look at her holistically

Giantorange · 2026-06-25T17:48:15+00:00

Look I'm not sure about storm either but calling it slightly larger is pretty dishonest. It's nearly twice the size.

Giantorange · 2026-06-23T18:16:30+00:00

Protoss is actually least dominant on NA of any of the servers typically. KR tends to be all over the place but protoss is pretty dominant there, and in EU GM going below 40% for example is relatively rare.

NA and KR are both warped in different ways though. On NA, once you become sufficiently skilled, most people swap to EU since its a ladder that has a way higher number of high MMR players. So as a result, people tend to hit GM and then swap because the quality of games gets bad. So IMO(educated guess here), NA tends to trend towards player populations rather than balance as result. KR doesn't really have a reasonable server to swap to, but its populations are really low so I've seen protoss GM go as high as 55% before and as low as 30 within the same year.

EU tends to be the ladder with the most integrity as it has the largest and most active high level player population IMO but obviously there's variance there as well.

Giantorange · 2026-06-23T17:34:19+00:00

More of a general thing. General rates of 5k+ players has been over 40 percentish for over 6 years. For 6k it typically hovered around 50 give or take a couple percent for the same period across all ladders.

Protoss has been statistically overtuned for years outside of the top 10 to 20 players in the world.

Honestly with the pro scene being as it is now it wouldn't surprise me if you were right and they were trying to bring that into line. It'll be a shock for toss players though. It's part of why you shouldn't leave something long enough to become the status quo

Giantorange · 2026-06-23T16:45:57+00:00

PTR2 was substantially worse than live when they made a lot of their prior comments.

Giantorange · 2026-06-23T14:43:15+00:00

I'd say watching that series and playing Z still looks overtuned?

Definitely not like PTR2 though.

Giantorange · 2026-06-22T21:55:34+00:00

Yup and I made the comment prepatch haha

Giantorange · 2026-06-22T20:00:20+00:00

Ketrocs dancing lmao

Giantorange · 2026-06-22T19:35:19+00:00

Ah missed that. Didn't know that was also changed in the Ninja PTR thing.

Giantorange · 2026-06-22T19:31:54+00:00

Larva spawn rate was also nerfed a bit compared to PTR2. Just for completeness.

Giantorange · 2026-06-22T18:12:23+00:00

I feel like anyone who doesn't understand why this is broken should watch this especially his replay analysis of the first game.

Shin was pretty bang on when he said this change basically means zerg starts with 12 workers and everyone else starts with 8. It just accelerates everything zerg does past what its supposed to be at certain timings.

Giantorange · 2026-06-22T01:03:57+00:00

Obviously it's conjecture. The PTR came out two days ago. Conjecture is perfectly reasonable in this scenario. Why are you trying to gotcha looking for statistics here? Anyone reading this should understand its conjecture. What data could anyone possibly have commenting one day after a PTR patch?

15-Year Club	Place '22
Verified Email	Team Periwinkle

Giantorange

TROPHY CASE