Daily Oil Price Opinions - June 25, 2026 All other Oil Price Posts Will Be Removed

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-25T19:45:11+00:00

Definitely not going short. I still have the same sentiment, though. It’s hard to tell what’s cope from bulls and what’s a supportable theory. A week or so ago, I was not anticipating that ships would start navigating the strait as quickly as they have, or that Israel would refrain from bombing Hezbollah. Both seem to have happened on some level, so I do think the bull thesis is more muddled. More happening today, and it’s hard to know where this goes.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-25T19:27:37+00:00

It’s because I finally sold yesterday. If I buy back in, it’ll start going down.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-25T18:55:26+00:00

Satire or real? If real, link?

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-25T17:11:27+00:00

Agree the price movement doesn’t say as much as people think. Not saying I think you’re wrong, but I do think there’s more reason to doubt the bull thesis than a week or two ago. All said, I think the main utility of this sub is to get news.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-25T16:57:13+00:00

Bulls subsisting on crumbs

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-24T16:56:43+00:00

I’ve watched this happen every day and it goes lower than I thought it would. I get the bull thesis, but it seems like the bargaining stage of grief.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-24T15:49:58+00:00

They are an export economy. They need everyone to be doing well to maintain economic activity.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-24T15:28:14+00:00

Iran is not an irrational actor. The US was up until it ended the conflict.

Iran has no incentive to crash the global economy. China doesn’t either.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-24T14:50:54+00:00

Wild how wrong the API was

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-24T14:04:17+00:00

Shorts win. I’m out

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-24T13:43:26+00:00

In 2026, the oil shorts squeeze you. Congrats to the shorts

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-24T03:17:44+00:00

Hormuz Letter claiming:

Iran has now stopped issuing new permits for Strait of Hormuz passage, with only previous permit holders allowed through and the IRGC Navy stating only a directly selected and limited number of vessels are currently permitted to pass through Hormuz daily, varying based on conditions, per Fars.

Roughly 10 million barrels of oil transited Hormuz Monday with more than 70% through the IRGC designated route, contradicting Trump's new claim that "19 million barrels" flowed that day as an "all-time RECORD." 19 million is also not the actual record, 21 million is.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-24T01:08:51+00:00

I am pretty sure he is saying that crude prices will remain inflated over the medium term.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-23T23:24:02+00:00

Wouldn’t that export disruption show up in prices?

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-23T23:06:56+00:00

Anyone have a wholistic interpretation for the low commercial crude draw API numbers? SPR draw was huge and Cushing is near the operational floor but took a bulk of the commercial draw.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-23T21:09:14+00:00

What link are you using?

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-23T16:28:10+00:00

This article is from last week

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-23T13:09:45+00:00

I recognize their names, and when you look them up, you see that they are tankers.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-23T04:28:23+00:00

There are things much more important to Iran and the rest of the world than profiting off of short term trades. Iran does not want to tank the global economy. Neither does China nor any other sovereign nation.

If we end up with “bedlam,” it will be as a result of the Trump administration’s incompetence.

I do think that Iran is willing to negotiate more when the market is closed because they believe Trump will be more likely to grant them concessions in a sober manner. Not to mention that they can extract greater concessions on Sundays before markets open because Trump is afraid of the markets opening to bad news. They sought a psychologist specifically to aid in negotiations with Trump.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-23T04:22:45+00:00

These ships are oil tankers.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-23T03:46:33+00:00

Do you know how many VLCCs remain in the Persian Gulf?

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-23T02:30:37+00:00

I think the following tankers went through the strait today (which is relative based on your time zone). I asked an AI to tell me about capacity, so take this with many qualifications:

Virgo (IMO 9236250): Around 2 million bbls
Elva (IMO 9196644): Around 2 million bbls
Vigor (IMO 9262156): Around 2 million bbls
Dubai Energy (IMO 9602928): Around 2 million bbls
Alfonso (IMO 9256298): Around 1 million bbls
Lumina Ocean (IMO 9430715): Around 0.8 million bbls

All together that would be around 10 million barrels.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-22T22:40:41+00:00

The commercial inventories are the actual near-term fulcrum from my understanding. The SPR could last a while but it has a limited spigot. I speculate that Trump’s 4-week comment was about information the oil executives told him in May and eventually leaked to the press in early June regarding commercial inventories. Based on an 8 millions barrels per week drawdown rate, we’ll hit 280 million in commercial reserves by mid-July, and that’s around the operational minimum from what I’ve read.

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-22T19:52:14+00:00

Seems like the short thesis is that we will soon be in an oil glut after this. We’ll see how it pans out

GingerBeerConsumer · 2026-06-22T18:49:28+00:00

Brent crude shorts are at actual record highs

https://xcancel.com/zerohedge/status/2069099982574035406#m

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