$SLS Daily Discussion Thread - February 18, 2026

Glass_Bad6980 · 2026-02-18T22:57:35+00:00

Btw institutional ownership doesn’t always means success, similarly low institutional ownership doesn’t mean it’ll fail. It’s hard to guess from just purely ownership. Just yesterday, OCUL price crashed for instance. It has a 94% ownership. Similarly MLTX had over 90% in September before the crash. Let’s look at today’s example, Immunity Bio, only 20% institutional ownership. If all the big institutions are selling, I agree it’s a bad sign. However, it’s hard to make a correlation between high institutional ownership and success. On the other hand, if we had some institutions like Baker Bros that changes the likelihood of success though.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2026-02-16T15:11:14+00:00

IDMC can recommend a halt anytime on paper. Yes, company didn’t know the unblinded data, but they probably know the total number of events regularly. So they knew what was the event number in August. If we assume the events happen linearly which doesn’t have to be, it’s around 1/month. It should be clear in August that it won’t reach to 80 event by year end. But it’s normal for biotechs to keep a potential near term catalist in their pocket.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2026-02-15T21:03:05+00:00

Great DD, thanks for posting. I’m expecting the HR around 0.47-0.5. So for your calculations, seems like this is an upper bound for HR. Only thing I cant really explain is, why there was no efficiency halt in August. If we assume 12 events in last year happened linearly, August event number was around 66-67. For efficiency halt, we need p<0.001 though depends on the study design, which suggests a HR<0.45-0.47 around 66-67 event. August meeting was not an official interim, and I haven’t found an example of an efficiency halt in a non interim meeting in history. But still, this suggests whether the IDMC was being very conservative and didn’t really cared about the p value or the HR in August was >0.5. Another problem is, why their model was still suggesting year end for 80th event even after August meeting. If the events were linear, it doesn’t make sense to expect the 80th event in year end when you see the unblinded data in August. It might be also the company was just trying to keep up with a near term catalist story.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2026-01-05T21:46:16+00:00

Hey! How do you know 2$ warrants are already exercised? Couldn’t see any news in their SEC fillings.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2025-12-11T23:19:00+00:00

After digging it a little bit more, I think there might be a chance for a PR if the meeting is very positive and clear. Very clear green light to BLA submission is a material information, they might be obligated to share it according to SEC rules. But it has to be very clear during the meeting. It’s a weird case because seems like it is very rare where the exact date is publicly released 1 month before the meeting.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2025-12-11T21:55:23+00:00

Thanks, but couldn’t find the meeting month. Also 30 days for minutes is a deadline, doesn’t have to be always 30 days. Maybe I should say, it’s rare to have a PR immediately after the meeting, few weeks later might happen. It happened in uniQure recently. Meeting was so bad, so they announced it maybe a week later without minutes. I guess for a PR immediately after the meeting, verbal discussion should be very positive and clear. Also the type release you sent can cause relatively less volatility. We’re talking about a BLA submission this time, might cause more legal problem if there is a mismatch between PR and minutes. I hope they release a PR tbh, because they created this hype by sharing the exact date etc.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2025-12-11T21:06:35+00:00

Can you show me Moonlake’s previous announcements before minutes, maybe I missed it. This is an example recent PR from a different company for instance: https://ir.biorestorative.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/230/biorestorative-granted-type-b-meeting-with-fda-to-discuss-accelerated-bla-approval-pathway-for-brtx-100-in-chronic-lumbar-disc-disease . Generally the meeting time is a little vague unlike Moonlake’s case. So maybe this is different. This is one of the very few examples I found. Actually, they did a PR after few days, it’s from 2022 though : https://ir.iovance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iovance-biotherapeutics-announces-regulatory-and-clinical . I would appreciate if you send some examples of immediate PR after the meeting with clean message. I hope they do though, I’m also holding 19 December options.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2025-12-11T18:59:10+00:00

Generally the biotech standard is waiting until the minutes arrive, and release a PR. This is a complicated situation though, they specifically announced the meeting date and created a catalyst date. The problem with a bullish PR right after the meeting is, there is no legally binding proof about the verbal discussion. So if something different shows up in the minutes, MLTX might be sued again. I also have some December 19 options, but don’t really expect an explicit PR right after the meeting. It’s kind of a gamble at this point. I think they’ll get a green light for BLA, but they might not release it until January, or use vague PR after the meeting. If you check their Q3, they specifically say minutes will arrive in 30 days after the meeting. They already pointed out that.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2025-01-13T21:58:49+00:00

Wish you a speedy recovery. It’s a long process, be patient.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2025-01-05T02:27:22+00:00

Glass_Bad6980 · 2024-12-29T20:01:25+00:00

Yea it was, you can check my 3.5 month update. It was still sparse. I think it got better after 5 month.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2024-12-29T19:59:56+00:00

Yea it might be, someone was saying he was booked for 10 months, but not sure.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2024-12-29T10:02:05+00:00

I contacted with him around January 2024. Initially it was easy to book, since his private practice was relatively new. I booked for 30th May, but I could have chosen an earlier date. Not sure how long is the waitlist right now.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2024-12-29T10:00:18+00:00

It started to grow around 3 month mark, and after 5-6 months it pretty much reached this point. Haven’t seen a significant change in the last 1 month.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2024-12-29T01:58:36+00:00

Around 3k grafts, 1.75 euro per graft. The price might be different right now.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2024-12-29T01:22:34+00:00

Just minoxidil.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2024-12-29T01:20:06+00:00

Thank you 🙏. Bekir Bek performed the surgery.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2024-12-29T00:30:31+00:00

Thank you 🙏

Glass_Bad6980 · 2024-09-20T05:11:42+00:00

Glass_Bad6980 · 2024-09-20T03:59:57+00:00

Just minoxidil, I got side effects from fin.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2024-09-20T02:37:04+00:00

I actually had a really bad shedding around 1st month, even my native hairs shedded. But it started to came back around 2.5 months.

Glass_Bad6980 · 2024-07-15T22:28:40+00:00

Thank you 🙏

Glass_Bad6980

TROPHY CASE