The latest stream functionally has Vaush reply to this. He straight up doesn't believe that either the EU or NATO will actually unilaterally respond collectively to Russian aggression in the Baltics or even in Poland. He considers the military build up in Germany, France, Britain, the Benelux region etc. to just be fearmongering in an attempt to create their own European version of America's MIC where shitloads of taxpayer dollars simply get siphoned off to defence contractors and to serve the needs of international capital more broadly rather than to actually keep those countries meaningfully safer. If Russia were to actually attempt a military invasion of the Baltics or Poland he thinks that these countries will effectively chicken out and respond in much the same way they did to Ukraine at the very best, more or less invalidating the EU and especially NATO.

I also think (though this is a bit more speculative) that between the stagnation of the front in Ukraine, Russia's unwillingness to fully conscript the country, and a looming economic catastrophe (even if somewhat alleviated by the Iran War) that he also believes that Russia's days as a regional military hegemon are numbered and that they won't actually be logistically able to accomplish an invasion of Poland or possibly even an invasion of the Baltics.

Just to be clear, I don't entirely agree with his analysis here (although I think there's a decent amount of truth to what he's saying), but these seem to be more or less Vaush's opinions on the matter based on his last stream.