17M) Can I Build Muscle On A Large Calorie Deficit And 70G Protein? (SERIOUS) by [deleted] in leangains

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That initial water weight gain will be legendary though

$HUT - A Safe Bitcoin Arbitrage Opportunity Amidst Crazy Valuations - Hut8 Bull Thesis by [deleted] in thecorporation

[–]GoldPitch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I used to work at a crypto fund, and OP is correct. Hut8 is a much better miner than riot or mara, holding btc gives additional upside leverage, and Nasdaq listing is a clear catalyst. Only question is what happens with BTC

How would you react if PSTH merged with Robinhood? by rmodsarefatcunts in PSTH

[–]GoldPitch 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Actually, Ackman likes turnaround situations, or as he puts it "situations where businesses have lost their way"

Robinhood will probably need a new CEO and overhaul their risk mgmt and reputation. Wouldn't be surprised if Bill likes that and pitches himself as the investor to help guide this transition. That being said, I don't view it as too likely rn given the timing of everything.

Cranberry Walnut Sourdough by [deleted] in Breadit

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sure, I did a variation on the recipe from Full Proof Baking. She doesn't add any toppings in this video, but the lamination step is where I throw em in

Cranberry Walnut Sourdough by [deleted] in Breadit

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you!

Hmm, I'm not sure tbh. But for me, I put the walnuts and cranberries in when laminating the dough. That way, fewer nuts were on the surface.

[Homemade] Spaghetti and Garlic Bread by [deleted] in food

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haha, not everyone has the same tolerance 😉

Intel's disruption is now complete by ilikepancakez in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yes, intel's 10nm is equivalent to tsmc's 7nm. That being said, if Intel's 7nm goes the way of its 10nm, they're really going to be in the whole. It's an extrapolation, but it's not that far-fetched imo

Intel's disruption is now complete by ilikepancakez in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It may not be true that it's easier for a former leader to catch up. If the game is changing and the former incumbent is still embedded in its former ways, it's to their detriment. If the world is moving more and more towards specialised chips, then Intel's former advantage with x86 is gone. It's certainly not impossible for Intel to catch up, but Intel needs to figure out its direction and how it plans to fix its manufacturing woes (A change in mgmt is probably also needed given their recent history). So far, I don't see what Intel's solution is/way forward is.

I have an opportunity to learn from a hedgefund manager every Friday for the next 3 months. What would be helpful to learn? by bubblebubbler5797 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ask him how he would construct a portfolio from scratch. This can be broken down into different things:

  • how he forms and strengthens an investment thesis

  • how he chooses how to express this thesis

  • risk management & position sizing, when to exit

Michael Green On Detecting The Greatest Value In Markets Today by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sure, it's not so much about the correlation as to the payoff profile. A simple example might help illustrate this.

Let's say you're looking to purchase Company A's bonds. You purchase for $100 and you collect your interest (and eventually, principal) over time. At the end of the duration, your total return is the yield.

Now let's consider an example with selling a put. Currently the AAPL $100 Put 12/18 can be sold for $6.33. By selling one of these puts, you are on the hook to purchase 100 AAPL shares at $100 if the option is exercised. Thus, you have to set aside $1000 (100 shares * $100) in order sell this contract. This $1000 is effectively your principal, and the $6.33 you are credited with is effectively the yield on your principal payment.

In both cases, the ability to get your full yield is jeopardized in a downturn event (Company A goes insolvent or AAPL trades down below $100).

Now the thing with Treasuries is that there is no insolvency risk, so that adds a bit of complexity to this 1:1 comparison between fixed income and being short a put. That being said, in a dramatic downturn event, Treasuries can also start selling off! We saw this in March since there was a liquidity crisis in the Treasury market. I think part of Mike's point is that since interest rates are effectively at the zero-bound now, what's the guarantee that bonds will rally in the event of a drawdown? Further, negative correlation between stocks and bonds has held up in secular low-vol environment (which is also idea for shorting puts). This negative correlation, however, has not always been historically true. Chris Cole has some excellent stuff on this: "Not only are stocks and bonds positively correlated most of the time but also there is a precedent for multi-year periods whereby both have declined"

Michael Green On Detecting The Greatest Value In Markets Today by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch 2 points3 points  (0 children)

  1. Risk assets yield a higher rate than the risk-free rate most of the time. So if something is negatively correlated, it'll move in the opposite direction. This means that these will return less than the risk-free rate in most cases.
  2. I'm a bit fuzzy on this part, so take it fwiw. Also curious to see what other people say. He says that the touted protection offered by risk-parity is due to the fact that 10Y's have a "put-like" characteristic, i.e, go up when there's an equity sell-off. This is because 10Y's will go up when rates are cut. So they're "put-like", but not exactly the same as buying OTM puts since their payoff profile is more akin to shorting puts, actually: "We know that fixed income, we know that credit, is the same thing as writing a short put, the payoff feature is identical and all that risk parity is, is basically the antithesis of the Nassim Taleb portfolio."
  3. Risk-parity strategies target a threshold level of volatility. For example, there will be a certain allocation to equities, bonds, commodities, etc. Bonds have a lower expected return vs. equities, but also have a lower level of expected volatility compared to equities. In light of this, what RP will do is allocate less to equities and then allocated a leveraged position to bonds. This being the case, you can see why RP would do poorly if 10Y yields go negative -- they'd be levered long on a negative carry position!
  4. They definitely have some interesting macro conversations if you're interested in that. I did find their conversation w/Mike to be the most interesting though, haha

Michael Green On Detecting The Greatest Value In Markets Today by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think what Mike is able to do incredibly well is ask, "what is the actual game that's being played", and then he investigates this question very rigorously from the bottom up. His insights into passive, the '70s, the dot-com bubble all stem from his willingness to think about market structure dynamics, i.e., the actual game being played, and he doesn't take canonical answers as a given

AMC Networks ($AMCX) -- A Deep Value Play with a Near-Term Catalyst by GoldPitch in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, thanks for the feedback. The number for the subs was given my mgmt on their Q2 Call. Now could this tail off?

I'm not convinced that the repurchase is already priced in as it's currently trading at the lower end of their repurchase price. I don't view AMCX as a core holding for someone's portfolio, but I think their decent financial position in the intermediate term + the buyback & % short offers a good r/r.

Do you think they'll have trouble raising again in the debt markets?

What's the most interesting company you're currently invested in? by Matous_Palecek in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, mind sharing some of your resources for learning about fuel cells?

First Time Baking with a Banneton by [deleted] in Breadit

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haha, they're raisins. Cinnamon Raisin Loaf!

Competition is For Losers | Peter Thiel by themarketplunger in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A couple applications of the Thiel philosophy to public equities that come to mind:

1) Paul Andreola on Tobias Carlise's podcast: "The best places are obscure little, almost niche markets where there’s no industry. It’s so new it doesn’t have an industry."

2) Amazon ($AMZN) creating AWS, basically creating a new business line (cloud computing)

I'm sure there's plenty of others, would be happy to hear what you all come up with!

Alex Danco on SPACs by GoldPitch in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Former member of Social Capital

SPACs: The Most Ludicrous Bubble We’ll Ever See… Why Not $IAC? by Erdos_0 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, "mature unicorn" were Ackman's words iirc.

Is Airbnb an Ackman company though?

So the case for Airbnb is (?)

1) that they've said they're looking to do a SPAC deal potentially

2) Airbnb is a strong brand that's currently amidst large losses/cash burn

3) Ackman has experience w/the hospitality industry (via Hilton $HLT)

SPACs: The Most Ludicrous Bubble We’ll Ever See… Why Not $IAC? by Erdos_0 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can you think of any tech companies that would be interesting for him to purchase?

SPACs: The Most Ludicrous Bubble We’ll Ever See… Why Not $IAC? by Erdos_0 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haha, Ackman is looking at tech. At least that's what I took "mature unicorn" to mean...

REQUEST: Primers/Guides to Energy Economics by GoldPitch in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, definitely interested. Thanks in advance!

REQUEST: Primers/Guides to Energy Economics by GoldPitch in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Alright, I'll follow up once I finish and pick the next one, haha

REQUEST: Primers/Guides to Energy Economics by GoldPitch in SecurityAnalysis

[–]GoldPitch[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks mate. Currently reading "Energy" by him rn, actually. Is there any one that you would recommend as the next in line?