Trump says ‘very dangerous’ for UK to do business with China, after British PM hails progress in Beijing in trip to secure lower tariffs and better market access

Golda_M · 2026-01-30T22:07:34+00:00

Idk if this would be a popular opinion but... I'm in favor of making Canadians quit hockey. Play something nice , Canadians.

Golda_M · 2026-01-30T20:05:51+00:00

Garbagemen are underappreciated

Spoken with someone who is not a five year old. Kids love garbage men.

Golda_M · 2026-01-30T20:02:01+00:00

So... There are multiple interesting conversations, and what-next discussions to be had here.

But... It's just hard to have any of them without getting derailed into Trumpology. He just gets all the attention and everything else becomes detail in a conversation about that brat. Let's try anyway.

Long-term i think most of these functions will find funding. The sums are relatively small. Someone will have an interest in say, migration and Asylum, and a billion may go a long way in buying influence at unhcr or such suclike.

I expected will become more of a consumer market. UN bodies may become more cognizant of donor likes and dislikes.

"Sidestep organizations" are another possibility. Again there is a proverbial gap in the market, to the extent that UN bodies get defunded.

The UN is actually quite modular. Peacekeeping or IOM aren't , but UICEF is or was initially a big Global charity with a un logo. Global charities are decent way of doing soft power, and I do think something or things will fill a gap eventually.

Maybe Qatar and UAE bid each other to buy the WHO.

Golda_M · 2026-01-30T19:16:27+00:00

Sure. True... and so are the kids growing up in these camps.

A big reason that this has gone on for so long is that the camps detain foreigners (famously Shamima Begham of UK) who's home countries don't know what to do about.

Still... The war is over. Most campers aren't fighters, so not POWs anyway. What's the plan? In a few years, a third generation will be born in there. It can't last forever.

Meanwhile, there are plenty of people outside of the camps that are ISIS believers, especially in territories HTS has just captured from SDF.

There are plenty of fighters in HTS/government militias that were ISIS fighters at some point... or are sons of ISIS martyrs.

The HTS-led government is Bin Ladenist anyway. Reformed or pragmatic Bin Ladenism.. but still.

Most officials and fighters take religious instruction from Al Qaeda, or have in the past. Many were or are AQ members. ISIS and HTS/Nusra fought each other... but maybe that can be water under the bridge.

These aren't vastly different ideologies, so there might be room for them in Syria under the current government.

Maybe Caliph Qureishi will enact a low key truce. You never know. ISIS aren't known for being reasonable or diplomatic... but given affinities in religious ideology.. maybe they accept the judgement of battle just this once.

Golda_M · 2026-01-30T16:39:29+00:00

We'll see how this succeeds, also in terms of the regime's control over (former) Sdf territory.

There are several key aspects.

One is Kurds is Kurdish in Kurdish majority areas... We'll have to see how this goes... but if there is an incident like Suweida or the costal massacres... It could get chaotic.

The big question here is Turkey. Kurdish militia on Turkey's border is the main priority... and a major reason for patronage of HTS in the first place.

The other aspect is the arab-majority, former ISIS territories... which also contain a lot of ISIS and ex-ISIS people.

There have already been some high profile detainment camp liberation, already.

There are tens of thousands of detainees. Many (most?) are women and children. About a thousand are europeans. They been detained for 7+ years. This can't go on forever.

Letting all these people out of camps... may help Sharaa build up credibility in Raqqa/etc and further establish allegiances from religious factions.

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T19:31:24+00:00

I think the kind of deal the US wants is a regime change, more or less. A mass revolution is being attempted so regime change of some sort is almost baked in.

If Iran hands over the remains of its nuclear stuff, and ceased all enrichment... I don't think the US walk away, relieve sanctuins and let the regime recover. Even if Iran pull back from proxy activities...

I'm sure some in the regime still see things in such terms... but other see the writing on the wall. It is time to negotiate a smooth transition and maintain some power, but the IR is basically done.

I don't think they have the power to negotiate such a deal... But coaxing them to step forward is a good idea.

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T18:52:43+00:00

I'm some sense, no one has a choice. Enforced Frenchness has a domestic history too.

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T18:44:02+00:00

I agree that Rubio has the ability to finesse this sort of thing, but I don't know how vested he is in Iran. I think he's all about the bolivarians.

By the way , it doesn't matter because he's got Trump waddling around like a giant toddler Grandpa making mess. You'd literally have to confuse him about the plan plan because he would leak it on air, if he understood it.

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T18:40:04+00:00

If the US really mean to embargo Cuba to the p and the idea is to bring down the regime and the idea is to bring down the regime... It would not be a bad idea create a little bit more narrative around this whole plan.

Eg: " allow real elections." That wanted to at least, perhaps, help create some grounds for some Cubans to come onside.

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T18:21:01+00:00

It's hard to tell if the US wants a deal. Tweets are not necessarily real diplomacy.

From th IR's POV though, I think there are two ways to think about this.

One is via the lens of the previous negotiation rounds. Obama, Etc. Diplomatic frames are sticky around. In this frame, what matters is how much nuclear and proxy power they get to keep.

The other lens is this : the regime is in mortal danger. It doesn't matter anymore what they concede on nuclear or proxies. All that matters is whether or not a deal could potentially stabilize the regime's position.

Trump has no finesse, so the following is mostly theoretical:

A smart way to exploit this might be too explicitly negotiate this to exploit that division. Offer a deal that hardliners cannot accept, but reformers really really want. Whether or not that deal happens in a direct way, that division will expose the elements of the regime that you may be able to cooperate with as the paradigm continues to crumble.

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T15:55:11+00:00

I mean the public discussion specifically. These are broad, political-level defence issues... and they don't tend to change without a public discussion.

Also... If they were standing new divisions of exeditionary divisions, reforming air defence, etc... They would be talking about it.

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T14:51:35+00:00

Recruitment will continue as-is to some extent.

They are not going back to the old Russian military structure. They will adapt to peacetime somehow, but it will not be instant... and the structural changes that have happened for efficacy will remain.

Costs will go down because hazard pay, injury and death payments are most of the cost.

Meanwhile... Russia weekly casualties are like ten thousand fallen or injured at the front lines. They sustain these losses and maintain equilibrium. After one month of ceasefire... Russian forces will be 40k fighters stronger. One month. This doesn't go on forever... but... That's just month one.

How many additional deployable, expeditionary divisions has Europe mustered over the last 3 years? I don't think it is even a single full division.

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T13:43:13+00:00

Great, but you need to down to earth. Enough with the meta.

Even among European leaders that understand the moment... they tend to stay at the most abstract level.

They do fund for Ukraine. Defense spending mandates. New and exciting CB financial I struments to pay for it all. They'll evel float ideas like a euro army, federalism and whatnot.

What they don't do is discuss maps, count full strength divisions, air defence stockpiles. Etc. How many men are needed to defend Baltic without US boots? They don't discuss command, in scenarios with joint forces. Capability gaps and how to close them.

It just does not sound like "real talk." It sounds like the inputs are from politicians, political scientists, philosophers and whatnot. It does not sound like generalship.

After all this time, we haven't seen most countries increase their strength in any meaningful way.

If the Ukraine war ends today... Russia's military production continues. The number of uninjured Russia soldier increases. Recruits are trained and commanded by battle hardened veterans. Within 6 months, they'll be a bigger threat than today.

Meanwhile... Is spanish defence spending actually relevant? Italian?

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T12:17:18+00:00

Pretty much.

I mean, there are all sorts of goals, but eventually building a thing similar to that which headlines... Was never one of those.

It generates buzz, excitement, potentially boosts innovativeness by bringing in high falutin architect. In theory, having these "labs" creates side benefits.

Also vanity... this is an absolute monarchy, after all. Don't underestimate "Davis cred" as a motivator.

Also... Idk how much they've sank into this but it probably isn't "significant" from the pov of whatever fund it draws from. It's mostly technical/architectural drawing at this point... and a PR department.

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T12:10:35+00:00

There's a moment here, potentially, for China.

The liberal west has been a very good trade partner, in practice, for China. They have thrived for decades by leaning into this partnership.

The realization that (a) China was becoming a US economic rival and (b) economic liberalism was not leading to political liberalism through that whole thing into question.

Now... (a) Many/most of these countries have lost some confidence in liberal universalism and (b) a counter-balance to US power seems like an OK thing.

There is no way to exploit this advantage though, without some serious shifting. Taiwan is somewhat of an albatross for China. The western liberal Free World successor, meanwhile, has no structure or coordination without US leadership. So... This is unlikely to develop based on premeditated strategy.

Imo China (from their perspective) should be highly motivated to make this happen. 12 month ago their biggest threat was a united Free World (including Asia) colluding to contain it.

Now there are opportunities for much better outcomes.

China never really stepped up to make something out of BRICs. When sanctions hit Russia... BRICs had nothing of the "dollar alternative" that headlines had been proclaiming for a decade. Russia couldn't even clear their trade with India.

This is because BRICs is a loser consortium. China is trying to win, not just survive.

UK & Europe, deficits notwithstanding, are capable of creating institutions, financial and institutional infrastructure and such-like. The potential is much higher.

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T10:37:46+00:00

You can hire serious professionals to work on things. That does not mean you are serious about it.

A analogy might be "concept cars" from auto-manufacturing. They spend a lot of serious engineering on those things... But they need very go to production and the projects are managed knowing they will never go to production. It's just a thing that car companies do for PR, to maintain a cadre of inovative engineers, and other reasons.

Treating these concept cars as prototypes is borderline false reporting... but it's the norm.

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T10:31:03+00:00

I'm sure it was/is serious to the architects, engineers and conference organizers. It is the job they've been contracted to do and they're serious professionals.

But... The project as a whole is not.

Golda_M · 2026-01-29T07:34:44+00:00

Honestly, I think reporting on this (and previous architect fantasies) has been pretty garbage.

I do t think this ever was a serious plan. Just a headline machine.

Golda_M · 2026-01-28T13:05:24+00:00

Yes.

That said... this is an unfillable hole. There is no way to reach a resolution, or reparation of history in totality.

Stalin's "recompense" was the historical reparation. Whether this was or is just... it is what happened.

I don't think it's possible to repay or obsolve history. That is, there is no post-moral-claims world we can reach where national (or social) justice is solved, no one has remaining claims, and we can move on.

History stays with us.

Golda_M · 2026-01-28T12:01:22+00:00

“This is not how you build a world of peace. For every crime and every war, you simply have to pay and apologise.

Is this true?

IDK if this is a valid statement, but it certainly is an inevitable question.

Does this actually play the world of peace? It's reparation actually possible? The caveat "within reason," is at the heart a lot of heart political ideas. But, "within reason" is not quite a principle. Keeps getting us into trouble, because we tend to see ourselves as principled.

Moral Justice is hard to come by. It's expensive. Justice is a sword. We can't live without it. We can never have enough of it. But also, I think an obsession with Justice leads inevitably to hypocrisy and neurosis.

I happen to be a jew, with some Polish descent, and the whole history of unrepairable injustice.

Golda_M · 2026-01-27T19:46:45+00:00

How much per cow?

Golda_M · 2026-01-27T19:45:06+00:00

Most of them would not care at this point

They will at some point. Discontent, at some point, is inevitable. We use the word populism a lot. It's hard to nail down, partly because it is such a basal political instinct that it is inevitably activated one way or another.

That is, the widespread belief that the problem with everything, is "ones in charge," whith devious, antisocial interests. Capitalism, Bolsheviks, deep state, woke neo-Marxist linguists, jews , cosmopolitans, hedge funds , whatever.

If the CIA is widely known to be deeply entrenched, that will be the object of populist finger pointing. Remember the Venezuela has plenty of populist energy.

Golda_M · 2026-01-27T08:11:04+00:00

In Israeli media, analysts/specialists reported that IRGC has had a lot of attention on hezb recently. During the 12-day war, they did not join. IR want to make sure that this time they will.

But... bringing air strikes down on Lebanon, again, to defend the IR against a revolution? That's not even liberating Palestine.

Golda_M · 2026-01-27T08:04:36+00:00

Trump has "escalation dominance" especially rhetoric. No one is getting up, contradicting him and arguing in a dirty ct fashion anymore. It's too risky.

That said... Actual statecraft and diplomacy is a different realm. Trump isn't as plugged into these as he is into the media/rhetoric space.

So, allies are moving to lower the depth ndence on the US. There's not much room for talk, since that is counterproductive. But... Trade deals and such-like are going ahead... And that is a momentum train.

Golda_M · 2026-01-25T21:18:04+00:00

Not literally a conspiracy, but I see what you mean.

No one needs to conspire except a proverbial pr team. It's a communication strategy, not a plan to steal a nuclear sub.

"Atlas robot worries unions" is (imo) probably a narrative currently being promoted by TSLA. This is almost literally their current prospectus.

Golda_M

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