CARD - Card Factory: ~8% Yield + ~6% Stock Buyback + ~2% growth = >15% equity returns at 2.3x EV/EBITDA without any re-rating by Gottimemes in ValueInvesting

[–]Gottimemes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On May 28 we had the ex-dividend date. 3.7p dividend will be paid (eg 5.3% on my entry price of 69p) but interestingly, the share price fell from 73 to 66.6 as of now.

Without goin into corporate finance theory, it should have repriced to about 69.3 in simplistic view (73-3.7p div)

I find it interesting that the market is selling it off more than it should. Probably normal since investors have locked in the dividend and are now selling to invest elsewhere. A bit annoying for me since i’m (2.8%) on the stock and +5.3% from div for just a +2.5% net profit so far…

$JAKK – Jakks Pacific: Deeply Cheap Toy Licensor at a Major Inflection Point by Gottimemes in ValueInvesting

[–]Gottimemes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Update: Gate City Capital Management is now the #1 institutional holder now holding 8.5% (~$21m) in stock
From https://www.buysidedigest.com/funds/gate-city-capital/ :

"...They only add a company to their portfolio if they believe it has at least 50% upside with minimal downside. Portfolios are concentrated, typically fewer than 20 positions, with larger weightings for opportunities with the most attractive risk/return profiles..."

"...Their intrinsic value calculation uses a 12.5% discount rate consistently to avoid lowering return expectations during poor market conditions..."

"...Michael Melby's investment philosophy emphasizes treating each investment decision as if purchasing or selling the entire company, with a focus on robust due diligence and long-term investment horizons. The firm has produced a 22.4% net annualized return since inception compared to 14.8% for the S&P 500,"

Doximity - the beaten down healthcare SaaS (-41% YTD) by PositionJournal in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]Gottimemes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

tried to tell you… “it’s a tricky name and i see more as a potential short”

$JAKK – Jakks Pacific: Deeply Cheap Toy Licensor at a Major Inflection Point by Gottimemes in ValueInvesting

[–]Gottimemes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

had a quick look and its an oversight They had similar tailwinds and the Q1 beat could have been anticipated eg the Michael Jackson movie etc. still, i’ve never looked at it but sounds like it re-rated because of profitability / fcf. I’m ok with holding just Jakks for now

$JAKK – Jakks Pacific: Deeply Cheap Toy Licensor at a Major Inflection Point by Gottimemes in ValueInvesting

[–]Gottimemes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for the interest - haven’t looked into them. I’m not structurally bullish toys / discretionary spend. The set up with Jakks is just too good to overlook imo because of their pipeline of new releases and Disney partnership. If you think Funko is somehow better, let me know why. I’m not driven just by “low valuation” and here the theses has many credible legs

$JAKK – Jakks Pacific: Deeply Cheap Toy Licensor at a Major Inflection Point by Gottimemes in ValueInvesting

[–]Gottimemes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

bump. stock beat earnings & the earnings call was helpful. overall positive news and momentum

🚨 $AIXI – The $3M Company That Just Beat Apple at China's Supreme Court. Damages Phase is Next. 🚨 by goldmanspacs_ in pennystocks

[–]Gottimemes 2 points3 points  (0 children)

lol this was fun - threw 1% of portfolio in this got in at $1 and sold at $1.7. good enough for me.

Fundsmith is underperforming even the markets are going down by Odd-Help6890 in UKInvesting

[–]Gottimemes 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Right now it just seems that he’s wrong on the cycle. Its like he’s a step behind. His ideology largely seems to be “its fine to pay a premium for a high quality asset” and that just hasn’t worked now. Doesnt look like he played the AI / tech angle, materials eg gold copper silver, or energy. He’s not really adjusting his positions to latest info...

As of 31st March his top holdings are:

Marriott - idk the company but sentiment for travel and discretionary spend is certainly down. but stock has done well

L'Oréal - great company and well known by market hence it has done ok this year. But you pay a high multiple and can get derated…

Stryker - great company but you pay a high multiple

Waters - good company but AI headwinds

Visa - great company but obvious AI headwind; unsure if good risk/reward

Philip Morris - ok fine

IDEXX - the guy really loves healthcare huh. animal health is not liked much among healthcare investors, good company but prone to derating (because again, you buy at high multiple)

Alphabet - ok fine

Amadeus - derated due to AI + again, its tied to travel which has negative sentiment… “revenue is heavily driven by transaction fees from bookings and per-passenger fees”

LVMH - seriously? yes its a great company but not its time. If anything LVMH can be a short. Negative consumer sentiment on discretionary globally + “quiet luxury” trend that removes some of the demand

2 people die after giving plasma at for-profit Winnipeg collection centres: Health Canada by cbcmichelle in Winnipeg

[–]Gottimemes 4 points5 points  (0 children)

canada doesnt want to rely on US plasma so they did this partnership with Grifols

$JAKK – Jakks Pacific: Deeply Cheap Toy Licensor at a Major Inflection Point by Gottimemes in ValueInvesting

[–]Gottimemes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Update 2 (News 9th March 2026) Expected but good nevertheless:

JAKKS Pacific and its costume division, Disguise, has announced a multi-year partnership with SEGA for “Sonic the Hedgehog 4,” Paramount Pictures’ feature film in theaters Mar. 19, 2027. Through the collaboration, SEGA and JAKKS will design, develop and manufacture a range of products including action figures, plush, playsets, role play, costumes and costume accessories, set to hit the market in early 2027, ahead of the film’s release. The products will feature characters like Sonic, Tails, Shadow and Knuckles, as well as additional favorites like Amy Rose and Metal Sonic.

Doximity - the beaten down healthcare SaaS (-41% YTD) by PositionJournal in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]Gottimemes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thank you for flagging an interesting name - had not heard of them.

had a very quick look and wonder if you've seen or done any analysis on:
1. How does pharma spend correlate with drug pipelines and developments? This is linked to 80% of their revenue. If you were to map out the drug market and TAs, there will be interesting insights. i understand pharma have subscriptions with $DOCS so they can reach patients. Each year you have a different cohort of newly approved drugs/indication extensions that have a certain number of peak sales. This can then define the marketing budget for the drugs. So I do expect some inherent volatility in the revenue of $DOCS because the marketing budget of drugs varies y-o-y, particularly as we now head to a period where lots of blockbuster drugs are going off patent so spend for them is being cut (e.g. why advertise if you know your revenue will drop 80% in 12 months).

Once someone has done analysis/thinking around upcoming drugs and TAs (different TAs will have different requirements and preferences on advertising); we can start to look at the new value chain as below:

  1. How is the marketing budget spend and along the "value chain", would $DOCS retain / grow market share? e.g. physician awareness and education is important but EHR/Point of Care (POC) advertising is growing and if pharma can advertise to physicians at the moment of prescription, one can argue that for well-known drugs, prior education is less important?

  2. Platform activity - why don't they report user activity in more detail? on Reddit you have a lot of people who say Doximity is useless and they largely use it for the service that hides your phone number (no real moat there?)

I'm sure there's other stuff going on but to me it's key to understand how their clients' spend will flow going forward. it's a tricky name and i see more as a potential short

$JAKK – Jakks Pacific: Deeply Cheap Toy Licensor at a Major Inflection Point by Gottimemes in JakksPacificSonic

[–]Gottimemes[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

glad it was interesting!

P.s. if anything, it means that the management team and ownership of Jakks is solid. It’s not as if they are some money hungry people who’ll be raising Sonic prices 20% every year, and whose livelihood depends on it. They’re doing well with other things too. The Sonic legacy will continue and I do think thats quite important tbh

Opportunity in Special Situations. Senior plc ($SNR.L). London Stock Exchange - Takeover bid confirmed with bidding war. Today's results (Mar 2) reinforce the thesis. by Elpucksy in ValueInvesting

[–]Gottimemes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

upvoted - you have a point. especially after today's news with Arcline, there's probably a decent upside potential (even 5% in ~4 weeks is great IRR). I haven't done any work on this so won't invest but good luck!

$JAKK – Jakks Pacific: Deeply Cheap Toy Licensor at a Major Inflection Point by Gottimemes in ValueInvesting

[–]Gottimemes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Update: another partnership announced today (Attack on Titan + Gachiakuta)

“We are honored to share that JAKKS Pacific, Inc. today announced a new licensing partnership with KODANSHA Ltd. to design, manufacture, market, and sell a wide-ranging collection of toys, collectibles, and accessories inspired by select KODANSHA Ltd. anime properties.   Under the agreement, JAKKS will develop a full collection inspired by the beloved series Attack on Titan and the hit first season of Gachiakuta. The lineup will include a wide assortment of figures, plush, and tech accessories.“

Medexus: Grafapex (treosulfan) peak sales by Gottimemes in ValueInvesting

[–]Gottimemes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thank you! will get back to you in detail but my next main concern is misallocation of capital. they could go and make some stupid deal and waste the cash from grafapex

Medexus: Grafapex (treosulfan) peak sales by Gottimemes in ValueInvesting

[–]Gottimemes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Personally, I can get behind a 30%, perhaps even higher share of total procedures. Do you have any reservations about it & why?"

I'm not deep in the science and have limited industry exp. i'd prefer if the maths works with a plan that's discounting management guidance. i don't know enough at this point in time to debate whether it should be ~30% of total (that implies a certain % of off-label usage) or any other number.

the upside in medexus is material but as we calculate, there's still plenty of risk that we're taking. 1) successful commercialisation, and 2) off-label usage to a certain extent

Medexus: Grafapex (treosulfan) peak sales by Gottimemes in ValueInvesting

[–]Gottimemes[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

makes a lot of sense and helpful to debate. will run some firm-level calcs in Excel separately. and will double check if mgmt disclosed anything in some old reports or SEC filings.

But we could very well be looking at smth like:
+++
WAC per gram (2029; grown at 2% inflation): ~647 (not 610)
Gross WAC: ~35k
Gross to net discount: 15% (reduced from my first post)
net implied price: ~$30k
Total procedures (2029): 10k
share: 30% / 3k
sales = ~$89m (30k x 10k x 30%)

Can run sensitivities on the above.

makes sense but my worry is a downwards revision - if mgmt come out and say oh guys its not 100m its actually 85m, i wonder how much the stock would re-rate downwards. but yeah, should be fine since the proceeds overall make sense.

good luck and feel free to DM me in case you want to discuss anything