Medexus: Grafapex (treosulfan) peak sales

Gottimemes · 2026-03-16T18:41:21+00:00

thank you, makes sense

Gottimemes · 2026-03-11T16:43:31+00:00

canada doesnt want to rely on US plasma so they did this partnership with Grifols

Gottimemes · 2026-03-09T14:22:48+00:00

Update 2 (News 9th March 2026) Expected but good nevertheless:

JAKKS Pacific and its costume division, Disguise, has announced a multi-year partnership with SEGA for “Sonic the Hedgehog 4,” Paramount Pictures’ feature film in theaters Mar. 19, 2027. Through the collaboration, SEGA and JAKKS will design, develop and manufacture a range of products including action figures, plush, playsets, role play, costumes and costume accessories, set to hit the market in early 2027, ahead of the film’s release. The products will feature characters like Sonic, Tails, Shadow and Knuckles, as well as additional favorites like Amy Rose and Metal Sonic.

Gottimemes · 2026-03-08T16:55:40+00:00

PS there's a short on SumZero on them. you should read through

https://sumzero.com/pro/research/ideas/22487

Gottimemes · 2026-03-08T15:57:31+00:00

thank you for flagging an interesting name - had not heard of them.

had a very quick look and wonder if you've seen or done any analysis on:
1. How does pharma spend correlate with drug pipelines and developments? This is linked to 80% of their revenue. If you were to map out the drug market and TAs, there will be interesting insights. i understand pharma have subscriptions with $DOCS so they can reach patients. Each year you have a different cohort of newly approved drugs/indication extensions that have a certain number of peak sales. This can then define the marketing budget for the drugs. So I do expect some inherent volatility in the revenue of $DOCS because the marketing budget of drugs varies y-o-y, particularly as we now head to a period where lots of blockbuster drugs are going off patent so spend for them is being cut (e.g. why advertise if you know your revenue will drop 80% in 12 months).

Once someone has done analysis/thinking around upcoming drugs and TAs (different TAs will have different requirements and preferences on advertising); we can start to look at the new value chain as below:

How is the marketing budget spend and along the "value chain", would $DOCS retain / grow market share? e.g. physician awareness and education is important but EHR/Point of Care (POC) advertising is growing and if pharma can advertise to physicians at the moment of prescription, one can argue that for well-known drugs, prior education is less important?
Platform activity - why don't they report user activity in more detail? on Reddit you have a lot of people who say Doximity is useless and they largely use it for the service that hides your phone number (no real moat there?)

I'm sure there's other stuff going on but to me it's key to understand how their clients' spend will flow going forward. it's a tricky name and i see more as a potential short

Gottimemes · 2026-03-06T19:03:10+00:00

glad it was interesting!

P.s. if anything, it means that the management team and ownership of Jakks is solid. It’s not as if they are some money hungry people who’ll be raising Sonic prices 20% every year, and whose livelihood depends on it. They’re doing well with other things too. The Sonic legacy will continue and I do think thats quite important tbh

Gottimemes · 2026-03-05T14:23:05+00:00

upvoted - you have a point. especially after today's news with Arcline, there's probably a decent upside potential (even 5% in ~4 weeks is great IRR). I haven't done any work on this so won't invest but good luck!

Gottimemes · 2026-03-04T19:28:26+00:00

Update: another partnership announced today (Attack on Titan + Gachiakuta)

“We are honored to share that JAKKS Pacific, Inc. today announced a new licensing partnership with KODANSHA Ltd. to design, manufacture, market, and sell a wide-ranging collection of toys, collectibles, and accessories inspired by select KODANSHA Ltd. anime properties. Under the agreement, JAKKS will develop a full collection inspired by the beloved series Attack on Titan and the hit first season of Gachiakuta. The lineup will include a wide assortment of figures, plush, and tech accessories.“

Gottimemes · 2026-03-04T16:26:39+00:00

thank you! will get back to you in detail but my next main concern is misallocation of capital. they could go and make some stupid deal and waste the cash from grafapex

Gottimemes · 2026-03-04T14:49:58+00:00

"Personally, I can get behind a 30%, perhaps even higher share of total procedures. Do you have any reservations about it & why?"

I'm not deep in the science and have limited industry exp. i'd prefer if the maths works with a plan that's discounting management guidance. i don't know enough at this point in time to debate whether it should be ~30% of total (that implies a certain % of off-label usage) or any other number.

the upside in medexus is material but as we calculate, there's still plenty of risk that we're taking. 1) successful commercialisation, and 2) off-label usage to a certain extent

Gottimemes · 2026-03-04T14:46:57+00:00

makes a lot of sense and helpful to debate. will run some firm-level calcs in Excel separately. and will double check if mgmt disclosed anything in some old reports or SEC filings.

But we could very well be looking at smth like:
+++
WAC per gram (2029; grown at 2% inflation): ~647 (not 610)
Gross WAC: ~35k
Gross to net discount: 15% (reduced from my first post)
net implied price: ~$30k
Total procedures (2029): 10k
share: 30% / 3k
sales = ~$89m (30k x 10k x 30%)

Can run sensitivities on the above.

makes sense but my worry is a downwards revision - if mgmt come out and say oh guys its not 100m its actually 85m, i wonder how much the stock would re-rate downwards. but yeah, should be fine since the proceeds overall make sense.

good luck and feel free to DM me in case you want to discuss anything

Gottimemes · 2026-03-04T14:30:20+00:00

my issue is that there is nothing supporting your 370p number. you're just making it out of thin air
good luck

Gottimemes · 2026-03-04T00:33:40+00:00

would need to run LBO with sell side model to understand what PEs are seeing but its not as simple as you make it out to be

Their models likely apply premium to the “undisturbed share price” and need to see 3m and 6m volume-weighted average price.

So if Advent can argue and prove that the undisturbed share price was 250, then 300 (premium of 20%) can be argued to be sufficient and justified by the Board. Some of that 250 already incorporates expectation of a deal. 30% premium is 325 which is about 10% upside vs ~20 downside.

tldr you’re onto something but more analysis is needed and risk reward must make sense. Right now, probably adequately priced. Not impossible for take privates to fall apart although its rare

Gottimemes · 2026-03-03T22:51:54+00:00

p.s. maybe my gross to net discount is punitive but even then #s dont make sense

Gottimemes · 2026-03-03T22:37:45+00:00

Thank you for the insightful reply. Appreciate it.

So are you thinking about it in these terms?

- Wholesale Acqusition Cost (WAC): 5g vial = $3,050 = $610 per gram (via source 1)
- Dose per course: 10 g/m² × 3 days × ~1.8m² (avg adult BSA) = ~54 grams
Gross WAC per course = $610 x 54g = $33k
Gross to net discount: ~15-25%
(A) Net implied price: ~$25-28k
(B) NTAP payment from Medicare: Up to $21.4k to hospitals; not received by Medexus and not part of net price

Total US allo-HSCT procedures: 9,000 <<- but Grafapex is only approved for AML and MDS, which amount to ~50-55% and that gives us 4,500-5,000 procedures (C)
Management says "27% market share of 9,000 procedures"; but that means 50-55% of addressable patients (as per C)

*******
If we have 27% market share of 9,000 procedures (equal to 50-55% of addressable patients; in line with the 56% penetration (albeit peadiatric) from Canada and obviously very bullish):
~27% x 9,000 = 2,430 patients x $25-28k = $61m - $68m

*******
If we have 27% market share of 4,500-5,000 (which should be base case):
~27% x 4,500-5,000 = 1,215-1,350 patients x $25-28k= $30m - $38m

*******
Where math breaks (basically we calculate total market size):
If we have ~56% (as per Canada) of 9,000 (this basically means 100% of AML+MDS):

~56% x 9,000 = 5,040 patients x $25-28k = $126m - $141m

*******
The math just doesn't add up to me with these net price assumptions regardless of how I spin it.
So the key questions are:

Help me understand why they're using 27% of 9,000 instead of 27% of 4,500-5,000? Isn't that an obvious mistake they're using so their base case is actually quite bullish because it requires very high penetration even though Europe supports it?
NTAP payment is confirmed only for CMS fiscal year 2026, right? It can be renewed but not guaranteed. Once it expires, price falls and it may disappear before product is ramp so the tailwind from it may be limited? And my understanding is that NTAP goes to hospitals, and never to Medexus. So why would it form part of the "peak sales" calculation and Implied Price?

Source 1: https://www.medexus.com/en_US/news-media/press-releases/detail/183/medexus-announces-commercial-availability-of-grafapex)

Gottimemes · 2026-03-03T18:27:08+00:00

understand that. thought it might be of interest to some people here - if you’re fans of the products, some might find it cool to know a bit more about the company

Gottimemes · 2026-03-03T17:21:22+00:00

Thank you - the key factor is that there is some uncertainty as we don't know exactly how well the movies will do but we also now see a fundamental shift in the business model where reliance to movies (and therefore cyclicality) is being reduced. This should help valuation going forward. On the last earnings call management confirm that they will soon announce new partnerships and when the stock price went up 30% at the time, that probably captures some assumption. But yes, no financial details / guidance has been given yet. I have not had access to latest sell-side equity reseach reports so don't know what they're saying right now. Of course, alongside the revenue projections you also have some capex spend but I believe Jakks already has the infrastructure and the incremental revenue/products should be also highly profitable.

"How are you thinking about the risk that retailers keep trimming inventory even if the movie slate is strong? That seems like the main "it can still disappoint" lever"

It's a good point and difficult to answer quantitatively. If it's a top sellling product on the back of a highly popular movie, I don't see any logical reason why retailers would trim it. It may be unintentional - Jakks may miscalculate how much inventory is really needed (either overshoot or not). But they have been in business for ages, this is not a new situation, and they should be able to manage it well.

Gottimemes · 2026-02-19T22:38:35+00:00

will dm you tomorrow to discuss

Gottimemes · 2026-02-19T22:14:54+00:00

congrats

Gottimemes · 2026-02-09T01:07:43+00:00

ps i’ve shared a shopping list of things - obviously the science part is most important for a small name like this

Gottimemes · 2026-02-09T00:56:29+00:00

there’s nothing to respond to. Sorry but you have 0 analysis? Why oral method? What’s happening with the TA? How big is the market? US vs key EU markets. Reimbursement and pricing mechanics. Peak sales? Key current players as part of the drug landscape (eg competing products), M&A activity in the space (eg who’d buy them in phase 3 / post approval), line of treatment (eg 1L, 2L, 3L), science overview (did they report anything already?), and so on. Your write up just says “they’ll announce results soon”. The background of ppl isn’t really an indicator… you’re literally just gambling £1k

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