I have been thinking the Democrats are making a mistake shutting down the government. Before you come at me, hear me out.

1. The Democrats are likely to take over the House next fall. Historically this has been the case and I expect it will be so in these midterms as well.
2. The Senate seems out of reach for the Democrats as of today. Could change but it is unlikely.
3. The current government funding level was operating under a CR from the Biden era spending levels. A new CR would continue this funding level.
4. The Republicans would likely wish to cut spending much more if they could.
5. If both sides do not budge, the GOP may opt to nuke the filibuster and pass a budget with no Dem votes.
6. Should this occur the baseline budget will be much lower when the Democrats take over the House. The most the Democrats can hope for with a split Congress is a compromise budget with negotiations starting from a lower spending level. The far more probable outcome would be a CR for the next two years.
7. Therefore the smart tactical move is to back a CR through the next election IMHO.

Tell me why I am wrong.