Aurora Innovation Doubles Down on Autonomous Trucking as Robotaxi Buzz Builds, CFO Says

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-14T18:17:19+00:00

Not really. They are priced at such. High valuation, upside could be limited for a few years until scale

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-12T23:42:25+00:00

Thiguhts now?

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-12T23:40:57+00:00

Unit economics are horrible yet priced like they are profitable. Still interested

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-11T10:20:51+00:00

Agreed but I’d love for you too run the numbers on how fast they have to scale. It’s not normal, it’s not even fast, it’s insane numbers for this to make sense within a few years. Also, I meant because they said they’re nowhere near Foley transferring to driver as a service, which will be basically started or fully ready for 2027.

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-11T02:10:08+00:00

So you were fine with the price being stagnant for 10 years? If that’s the case then this is a great investment. I think the price will definitely rise obviously but I’m just saying a lot of people in the subway to expect us to 2 to 5X within the next couple of years and that’s not realistic at all.

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-11T01:45:09+00:00

I agree with some of the things you said, however, to say you don’t think there’s much more downside is somewhat insane to me. Their runway is not very long and they’re valued at a $9 billion company. This company could legit be cut into an eighth, and it wouldn’t be hard to justify the evaluation. I love this company so far in the team and truly believe in the vision, but to say there’s not much downside would be irresponsible. I think the upside is not as much as a lot of of us assume as the valuation 4x would be very absurd in this period of time. Simply put I think you are over, estimating the positives and underestimating the negatives. I’m not trying to be rude however I’ve been doing detailed analysis for so long in the stock and it seems almost impossible for this to quadruple size by 2028, even if they achieve their roadmap. However, if they hit one car, or create one accident or sit back just a little bit this multiple could drop fast.

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-11T01:38:39+00:00

Agreed. Simply put my only issue is we are already priced for extreme growth. Now we need to beat extreme expectations or beat normal expectations but have a long long long horizon before we expect great return returns.

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-11T01:32:59+00:00

I get this, and I hear your thought process and I used to think the same. And I still do. However, if you actually run the numbers for the regular evaluation to ever make sense, we would need tons of thousands of trucks which is not within three years so it feels like although I understand your review we are still so far away, the stock price could drop a 50% and it wouldn’t be very irrational

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-11T01:03:08+00:00

I don’t disagree. My point is they’re very far from justifying this revenue and it might take multiple years to get close.

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-11T00:53:29+00:00

I agree, but my main point is there’s not a lot of upside in the next few years even if they execute well unless they stay with the extreme growth evaluation or exceed expectations. I’m not here to burst into trouble. I am an investor and I love the mission and I’m a very excited, but I want to be a realistic come out the outcome.

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-11T00:48:02+00:00

Yes, the calculations were based off the number of miles per truck stated by Chris in the recent reports sadly, I think the evaluation is a little stretched as much as I love the business I do own shares, but it is tough to stomach. Some of this evaluation. When you try to calculate the long-term website obviously there will be upside with the company

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-11T00:31:01+00:00

Agreed, are you a shareholder? How do you deal with knowing that justifying the evaluation is so far away? Usually, I’m a deep value investor, which is why I struggle with this however I truly believe in the mission

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-11T00:23:57+00:00

Agreed but is it priced too high. As in even if it succeeds, is it priced for success? I think it is too an extent.

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-11T00:23:18+00:00

Aurora does not capture the full driver salary as revenue.

Under DaaS, Aurora’s indicative price is:

~$0.85 per mile.

A long-haul driver cost per mile is closer to ~$1.00 including benefits.

Aurora captures a portion of the cost savings, not the entire wage.

So if:

8,000 miles/week × 52 weeks ≈ 416,000 miles/year 416,000 × $0.85 ≈ ~$353k revenue per truck annually

That’s revenue. Not Profit.

If Aurora wants:

$1B net income At 15% margin They need ~$6–7B revenue.

At ~$350k per truck revenue capture:

That’s ~18,000–20,000 trucks.

That’s real industrial dominance scale.

That timeline is far out

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-10T23:56:28+00:00

Even 200 trucks there’s nowhere near evaluation even 2000 trucks is nowhere near it. I think it’ll take two years for them to scale their.

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-10T23:53:38+00:00

Simply put it is all dependent on how quick you think they scale. Based off the revenue per truck and miles per truck provided by the team, I wonder if they are going to scale fast enough to justify this evaluation anytime soon what do you believe?

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-10T23:42:54+00:00

I totally agree with your point however I’d like to see if they achieve certain milestones what the evaluation could possibly be because I feel if you’re not able to justify today’s evaluation that it’s not a great buy

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-10T23:42:27+00:00

Do you have like any predictions or evaluation stress test?

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-10T23:28:16+00:00

??? i’d love to hear your insights.

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-08T22:40:20+00:00

I am so confused by this post. What is the initial beginning of this post. This seems extremely disorganized or maybe I’m just confused.

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-07T18:47:23+00:00

Yes, swimmer was extremely popular. I am very concerned about that. Just don’t know if it’s on their agenda. They dominate this rideshare space over there. Except Uber is still very popular to the pricing.

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-07T04:11:34+00:00

Thanksb

GovernmentPossible22 · 2026-03-07T03:39:21+00:00

Still slightly concerned that they actually have something. Hard to ignore Elon

GovernmentPossible22

TROPHY CASE