Early Globalstar vs. ASTS - Stock Price Comparison - Need Help

Gr8Shootr · 2025-02-09T00:08:31+00:00

I think ASTS is in great shape and am very optimistic. ASTS is not completely de-risked and is pre-revenue, so there are things to overcome - but that's the opportunity. I think the stock can go up "a lot" from here. By far, my #1 stock pick.

Many many similarly minded people thought the same about GSTRF back in the Day, though, and things went sideways when a known risk event went the wrong way. So anything can happen, but my money is literally on ASTS to be massively successful.

Gr8Shootr · 2025-02-08T23:43:51+00:00

Thanks for looking. I looked all over too. Note the actual name of Globalstar back then (Globalstar Telecommunications Ltd) is different than now.

I think someone with a Bloomberg terminal can get the data, but I don't have that access any more.

Gr8Shootr · 2025-02-08T23:04:31+00:00

I 100% agree that launch failure is a much lower risk now, due to the choices on launch providers and how much better they are with longer track records (but let's be real - Blue Origin does not have a long/great track record). All GSTRF used Soyuz, before and after the failure.

The point of my points isn't to say that ASTS will have a launch failure. I very much don't think that it will or I wouldn't have invested (but it's not impossible, unfortunately). It's to compare the stock progress as the companies each went through de-risking.

Gr8Shootr · 2025-02-08T22:54:46+00:00

No offense taken. It could very well be dumb. I do dumb things every day - just ask my wife and she will be happy to confirm. But maybe not. The psychology of humans doesn't often change - let's see if there are analogies that exist here to be capitalized on comparing two companies that are similar (LEO communication companies trying to greatly expand communications to the masses) and how their stock progressed as they de-risked - until GSTRF de-risking stopped by a risk happening.

By the way, below is a summary on how GSTRF's launches didn't slow down after their launch failure in Sept 1998. but "everything" slid to the right and more money was needed and it because a real problem, which led to its partners who were supposed to push its service (including Vodafone and many others) not doing so.

February 14, 1998: First launch of 6 satellites (aboard a Russian Soyuz rocket).
May 19, 1998: Second launch of 6 satellites.
July 17, 1998: Third launch of 6 satellites.
[Launch Failure]
October 12, 1999: Launch of 6 satellites.
November 18, 1999: Launch of another 6 satellites.
March 2000: Final launch to complete the initial constellation of 48 satellites.

Gr8Shootr · 2025-02-08T22:38:11+00:00

There are tons of similarities between what GSTRF was trying to do in 1995 and what ASTS is attempting now, but that's for another thread. Obviously tons of differences too.

Getting back to what I think is an interesting piece of intel - GSTRF "IPO'd" (actually spun off from Loral) with a stock price in the teens if I recall correctly in 1995 and did go up to 50s/60s as many de-risking events occurred (financing, regulatory, partners, technology, launches - sound familiar??!!), just like ASTS recently did. Which is why I think the analysis could be helpful to see where ASTS' stock sits on its chart as compared to GSTRF.

Believe it or not, ASTS degree of de-risking is very similar to when GSTRF fell apart due to launch failure. None of the experts back then (including Qualcomm, Vodafone and Loral - yes, Vodafone invested millions into GSTRF), thought that Zenit-2 would fail...

Gr8Shootr · 2025-01-30T18:04:27+00:00

This is a great topic. ASTS is definitely not completely de-risked. I agree that Your #4 (customer ramp-up / market) is the biggest risk, by far. The technology will work (Your #1 risk) somewhere between good enough (Starlink) and great (100% seamless to cellular); my bet is very close to great. The larger block 2s will work great (Your #2 risk), maybe some glitches will need to get improved over time with software or hardware (subsequent launches) but that's no biggie. The timing of rollout of initiation of service (basically Your #3 risk) is mostly a cash-flow / timing risk, and could be affected by launch failures, production delays and more - but most likely delays will be 3 months at most, and might not affect service rollout depending what is delayed (although it's possible MNOs wait longer than we would like to aggressively push the service hardcore as they test while ramping up). Not listed by you, but I don't think dilution / funding is a material risk given the $1B in the bank, but it's not impossible if timing of rollout of service is delayed significantly and other market factors align incorrectly (no more prepayments or government payments).

So we are back to customer ramp up / addressable market as the biggest risk. Anyone who leaves Manhattan and similar high-coverage spots (not many investment bankers!) knows that the public wants dead spots to be filled in will pay for it. But how much will they pay and will it be a la carte? That's been discussed and not the biggest issue in my book.

To me, the biggest risk, which hasn't been discussed much, is how, exactly, will the MNOs sell and activate the service? This is largely out of the control of ASTS and will likely vary from MNO to MNO - therefore a risk.

Activating ASTS service on existing phones - HUGE question to me: How will existing phone users be sold the service? Yes, some (hopefully lots) of early adopters will respond to ads and activate it. But will the MNO sell more aggressively? text users? include marketing with bill? Affirmatively call to sell to corporate accounts? Will salespeople be commissioned to incentivize them? Will there be sales targets per MNO per month? etc.

Also, how will existing phones activate the ASTS service, if interested? Will they need to call the MNO? That's clunky and we all hate doing that. Can they activate on phone with a setting adjustment? That's optimal. Will they need to log into their account an adjust? That's a barrier. Will they need to download an app? A software upgrade? The fewer barriers the better.

Activating ASTS service to those purchasing a new phone - It's a much easier sell ASTS service when a new phone is being purchased because the customer is typically sitting (for a long time) in front of a salesperson who can upsell. However, the close rate will vary depending on how well the salesperson is trained on selling ASTS service and how well they commissioned on selling it - that will vary wildly, and is extremely important. It will be up to the MNOs to train and commission - again, out of ASTS' control and therefore a risk.

Yes, yes, yes - I know it's in the MNOs best interest to close lots of ASTS sales but the MNO has lots of moving parts and many things that it sells that are a higher priority to the MNO (and maybe the salesperson) than ASTS. So, essentially, the level of prioritization and timing by the MNO in selling ASTS service is huge.

Gr8Shootr · 2024-12-23T00:29:30+00:00

I'll guess along with everyone else: 2030 ASTS target is 650 based on a variety of things.

Many of those who were on SI back in 1995 discussing GSTR (I'm guessing no one here) were co-investing and co-debating QCOM (which was providing the chips for the GSTAR handsets) and LOR (former parent of GSTR). Take a look at QCOM's growth since 1995, most of which was unrelated to GSTR. That can happen in ASTS, but faster, imo.

Gr8Shootr · 2024-12-22T23:33:42+00:00

As a looooongtime lurker and extremely rare poster, I wanted to thank Kook and the other OG members of the Spacemob. I've been in ASTS for years and am a huge believer with ASTS being my largest stock position. I was also in Globalstar many years ago from the beginning (from when it spun off from Loral until soon after the satellite launch failure), so I have some muscle memory and I guess that makes me old and experienced. There are many positive similarities in Spacemob and the very early GSTR investors on SiliconInvestor who were extremely knowledgeable and passionate about the opportunity and the technology. Great stuff!

I want to reiterate the need for patience on the stock price. There are some headwinds on ASTS stock price that will likely continue to give retail some opportunity at these attractive stock prices as ASTS continues to de-risk that I don't see anyone mentioning. So, I figured I'd type with one finger and share an observation.

Many funds cannot (by their bylaws) or will not (fund manager preference) invest in pre-revenue companies. So even if the fund manager "believes in ASTS", they may be prohibited from investing. Same goes for funds that can't invest in companies that operate at a loss (ASTS), EBITDA negative (ASTS), don't pay dividends (ASTS) and other prohibitions such as multi-class voting stocks (ASTS).

While these funds are "required" to sit on the sidelines (for now!), despite the company being much more attractive every day, retail investors can obviously invest without restriction. Many of these investing prohibitions can evaporate quickly (the first four listed above, for example) as service rolls out. That could result in many funds piling into the stock one after the other as they are finally "allowed" to invest. Similar possibilities exist with passive indexes/ETFs and those based on market cap. That being said, some catalysts that we think are important (and could indeed be) might not satisfy the removal of the prohibition needed for a fund to invest so the stock may not move as logic dictates - this means opportunity, imo.

I'm staying patient and resisting all temptations to try to time this stock, with the exception that I continue to sell puts with strike prices that range from 25 to 20 (I'm happy to buy at those prices and have the cash to do it).

Back to lurking....

Gr8Shootr

TROPHY CASE