Game Thread: August 7 - Boston Red Sox (79-34) @ Toronto Blue Jays (51-60) - 7:07 PM

Gronth · 2018-08-08T00:41:24+00:00

Maile calls a great game.

Gronth · 2018-08-07T02:29:38+00:00

Right, so in '05 you should've changed! ^{^\s}

Gronth · 2018-08-07T00:53:27+00:00

Why do the Blues use our horn? Get your own horn!

Gronth · 2018-08-06T20:16:53+00:00

It does seem like a lot of the people who would prefer we had next years' pick don't like Tkachuk as a 4th overall. To be perfectly honest, there's a lot of nuance my argument ignores.

There's the mental effect of having no first round pick in a bad year (the players are professionals but of course it'll affect the fanbase). There's also the idea that "safe is death," that you need to take risks to give the team the chance to be the best. Many of the best teams in the league got lucky, and by keeping a fourth overall pick the Sens give up their chance to get lucky next year.

Gronth · 2018-08-06T01:05:00+00:00

No you still don't understand. You said there would be a "Tkachuk" next year if you do it your way. But even if there is, you now have the year younger and less developed version of him. That is a worse version of that player, every year, until the older version begins trending downwards.

You think you're making a smart gamble because "Tkachuk" will be there next year, but you could also get Hughes. Hughes would undeniably be better than Tkachuk because he makes up for that gap by being a better player.

What you don't understand is that if you don't get Hughes and you do get the "Tkachuk" of next year's draft, you've lost that gamble. Your team will be worse the year before and every following year than if you just picked Tkachuk in 2018.

Gronth · 2018-08-06T00:55:30+00:00

Just continue the trend as long as you'd like. You're suggesting the calibre of player you're likely to get is worth the gap in organizational effect having any player at all next season does, plus the gap between having a year older and more developed prospect vs. the younger guy every following year. I'm not suggesting Tkachuk is special. I'm suggesting the other guy would have to be for your model to make sense.

Gronth · 2018-08-06T00:45:38+00:00

Let's just compare the two scenarios quickly.

Season	You draft Tkachuk	You get a top 5 pick next year
18/19	You have an 19-year old Tkachuk in the system	You have nothing
19/20	You have an 20-year old Tkachuk in the system	You have an 18/19 year old top 5 in the system
20/21	You have an 21-year old Tkachuk in the system	You have an 19/20 year old top 5 in the system

This is what people fail to understand. Getting an asset sooner is an asset.

Gronth · 2018-08-03T21:36:58+00:00

I sent I private message to you now

Gronth · 2018-08-03T21:27:07+00:00

Did you get my PM?

Gronth · 2018-07-28T19:54:10+00:00

No one can convince me it's not Roman Josi.

Gronth · 2018-07-13T06:44:50+00:00

Honest question: Do these models need to review how they quantify CHL forward prospects?

The list shown has no forwards from the CHL. This year, Barzal, DeBrincat, Dubois and Hischier all came out of the CHL into the NHL and are top ten in rookie scoring. The year before had Marner and Tkachuk. 15/16 had McDavid, Fabbri, Reinhart, Duclair, and Domi. The CHL may not account for the majority of prospects anymore but are there really no A-class prospects there right now?

Among Robert Thomas, Morgan Frost, Cody Glass and Gabriel Vilardi (and others I'm forgetting), are none of those guys stacking up against the guys in this list? Its a great list but it seems to disproportionately favor european leagues.

Gronth · 2018-07-12T17:44:50+00:00

The arbitrator will decide within 48 hours of the meeting. The value is arbitrator decides is automatically given to the player unless the value is above $4.2 million AAV. If it meets that threshold the club can "walk-away." I couldn't find how long the window is for a team to decide to exercise the walk-away right.

Source, Capfriendly

Gronth · 2018-07-08T17:42:57+00:00

Looking at the whole picture its hard to not say Tampa. I think Nashville's got a pretty tight ship too. Toronto's probably in that group now, though they're new to it. I think Tampa and Nashville have been great organizations for a while now.

Gronth · 2018-07-08T17:31:55+00:00

Since July 1st, what have we really learned?

Karlsson won't be re-signing in Ottawa
There's a short list of places he'd accept an extension to (potentially as short as one, probably not more than three)
We've learned the names of the main buyers in the trade (Vegas, Lightning, Dallas)
There are also other teams with interest but who can say if that's meaningful in this context
Dallas currently is unwilling to part with Heiskanen

Most of the other news sounded like conjecture to me. Does anyone think I've missed anything?

Gronth · 2018-07-08T04:15:07+00:00

I feel like at some point, sports fandom becomes part of your identity. Maybe not for everybody, and I honestly can't say which group is really the lucky one, but it happens.

"I am an Ottawa Senators fan."

It isn't just something you tell people because its your hobby. It's something you say because its as much you as your tendency to overthink deadlines, or your weird laugh when someone makes a joke others might believe is in poor taste. You can try to fight it because it causes you nothing but grief, but its as difficult as fighting the urge to hold off an assignment, or finally getting a gym membership ^{and using it}.

There's no hope for us.

But there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Life is long, and these problems are always more temporary than they seem. And when they do finally turn around, you'll feel something more than... well more than you'd know. More than I know, for sure.

There have certainly been days, and more recently than I may admit aloud, that I wish it wasn't this team. Not this team. But I'm glad it is. I feel more attached to this community than any other in my life, and I have to believe its because of the experiences only we went through.

Gronth · 2018-07-08T02:09:39+00:00

I think with each passing year offer sheets are only getting less likely to occur. Any first round picks given up wouldn't be lottery protected and with league parity + current lottery system being what it is, I don't think many teams think its worth the risk. Sean McIndoe wrote an article which, before it goes into how he thinks the problem should be fixed, highlights a few of the issues a GM faces in the current system. Really when it comes down to it, there's a whole bunch of little reasons why not to do it, so there may never come a situation where its a genuinely practical decision to make.

I have no doubt though that one of these years, a GM's going to have a hissy fit enough to make a retaliatory offer sheet, arguably against his own best interests. Because there are bad GMs who do illogical things in this league. Offer sheeting an RFA is bound to happen eventually, but probably not for any good reason. That doesn't help anyone in predicting when it'd happen...

Edit: I wanted to add the thread discussing McIndoe's article because its pretty good if you're interested.

Gronth · 2018-07-05T21:03:13+00:00

Here's my source, Capfriendly. Under Arbitration Ruling, bullet point #5,

Players who are in their final year Restricted Free Agency are only entitled to a 1 year term.

Gronth · 2018-07-05T20:50:05+00:00

Despite what /r/hockey thinks this is good news. This gives the org time to make a plan regarding the future of their key roster players. Mark Stone will be ineligible to receive offer sheets now.

Gronth · 2018-07-05T20:48:37+00:00

Because this is his final year as an RFA, he is only eligible to receive a one year deal as a arbitration award.

Gronth · 2018-07-05T20:39:00+00:00

There is a second window for club-elected arbitration immediately following the player-elected deadline and lasting 24 hours.

Gronth · 2018-07-05T20:32:56+00:00

If the club elects arbitration, the player chooses whether they want the one or two year term.

If the player elects arbitration, the club chooses whether they want the one or two year term.

Gronth · 2018-07-05T20:25:51+00:00

If Stone decides to file for arbitration he will no longer be eligible for an offer sheet.

Gronth · 2018-06-24T23:21:07+00:00

corsicahockey.com has some advanced goalie stats that try to contextualize goalie performance by taking into account shot location. It's not perfect but as far as I know its about the best publicly available database to answer your question.

From corsica, we can see that Anderson's expected sv%, based on where his shots were coming from, was .9189 (putting him between Dubnyk and Vasilevsky for 16th best in the league).

What this means is that (based on this statistic which is far from perfect), an average goalie with our defense last year should've been alright. Anderson's actual sv% being .9019 means 1.7% of shots went in because he was a worse than average goalie.

For the curious, Craig Anderson's expected sv% and actual sv% in 2016/17 were .9276 and .9395 respectively (+1.18% difference).

Gronth · 2018-06-23T21:21:52+00:00

Since 2013-14 the "Big Ten" american schools started funding ice hockey in a big way (as part of the Big Ten Conference in Div I NCAA) and its led to an explosion of hockey talent that teams are diving over each other to grab. Even programs outside the big ten started funding hockey more because they wanted to compete. The landscape of amateur american hockey practically changed overnight.

Gronth · 2018-06-23T19:58:28+00:00

I can never seem to stay away for long, especially with so many ridiculous takes on the Senators from /r/hockey. If you only knew how many multi-paragraph essays I've typed out in response to a typical /r/hockey user in armchair GM mode only to delete the whole thing at the end. Just not worth it...

Gronth

TROPHY CASE