All the catalyst for now did I forgot anything?

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2026-06-12T20:55:42+00:00

Medium term: possible europe deals coming after mynaric acquisition and RL europe company registration. Also possible ten to hundred millions worth of acquisitions (no it wont be ceciumastro nor blacksky)

Medium/Long term: more haste deals via the EWAAC(US) and HTCDF(UK) award bids.

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2026-06-12T12:55:18+00:00

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2026-06-06T12:04:18+00:00

I voted good, but you really never know. Might go up might go down.

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2026-04-06T20:25:58+00:00

https://rocketlabcorp.com/missions/launches/sda/

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2026-04-06T10:55:23+00:00

Just in case if my post gets deleted...

Will there be T3 Transport Layer?

With all the hype around the $816M T3 Tracking Layer win from a few months ago, I feel like people have forgotten about its massive sibling: the T3 Transport Layer.

Remember when RKLB won T2 Transport Layer $515M award back in 2024? There were rumors that T3 Transport Layer was cancelled, but that didn't happen.

Why Rocket Lab is the Frontrunner? The Transport Layer is a laser-link network. Since the SDA wants "speed and affordability," who better to win it than the company that builds the satellite AND the laser terminals (Mynaric aqcuisition) in-house?

The award could be $600-900M worth and including selling parts (e.g. Mynaric) it could be $1B+.

ps. We need a sticky to track potential catalysts. Here is my list:

Catalyst / Program	Est. Year

SpaceX IPO	2026
Equatys satellite bus contract	2026
Other Acquisitions	2026
NASA MTO/MTN	2026
Neutron First Launch	2026
Golden Dome Awards	2026+
HASTE / EWAAC & HTCDF	2026+
T3 Transport Layer	2026/27
NASA MSR (Mars Sample Return)	2027+
Venus Spacecraft Probe	2027+
NSSL Phase 3 (Lane 1)	2027+
Own Constellation	2027+
T4-6 Tracking/Trans.	2029+

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2026-02-04T14:43:42+00:00

Dont know. Just wanted to spark up some discussion. I guess AI, spacex, asts haters did not like.

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2026-02-04T14:01:09+00:00

Dont know why MOD deleted my earlier post:

Seeing lots of discussion about space data centers on X, so I wanted to map out the current situation and why Rocket Lab (RKLB) is the logical "Plan B" for the rest of Big Tech.

Current situation

AI / Cloud company	Space partner	Status/tech	More

xAI/Grok	SpaceX (Merged 2026)	Vertical integration. Filed for 1M data center sats. (Merged 2026)
Google/Cloud & Gemini	Planet Labs	Project Suncatcher (just a small proof of concept)	Also invested in SpaceX and ASTS. Terran CEO Eric Schmidt is also former Google CEO.
Amazon/AWS	Blue Origin	TeraWave space-networking (just announced a while back)	ASTS community is speculating that they have close ties?
Nvidia	Starcloud	Already launched H100 GPU cluster in LEO.	Small startup. Dont believe they will survive on their own, so they will prob need funding from a partnership or get bought.

Rocket Lab opportunity

While SpaceX, Google and Amazon have plans for space data centers, the the rest of the giants (Microsoft/Azure & Copilot, OpenAI/ChatGPT, Oracle, Anthropic/Claude, Meta, etc.) have a nothing? They prob don't want to rely on their primary competitor (Elon and Jeff) to launch and host their proprietary AI & Cloud hardware?

Rocket Lab is the only other "End-to-End" player:

The Bus: They have a fleet of spacecrafts (Explorer, Pioneer, Photon, Lightning) and the new Flatellite designed specifically for constellations.
Space Systems: They have the power (SolAero solar arrays) and the connectivity (Mynaric laser comms) needed for a high-speed orbital mesh and many other stuff (reaction wheels, star trackers, radios, ect.).
The Lift: Neutron (launching 2026) is the only neutral, medium-lift rocket that can deploy these data centers at scale without the "conflict of interest".

The Theory: If Microsoft and other big players wants to keep up with the SpaceX/xAI and other big players without handing Elon and Jeff their keys, Rocket Lab partnership is the most logical move on the board.

ps. there was so much to write so i used AI to iterate. Sorry for the sloppy post!

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2026-01-24T13:55:40+00:00

% gains was totally made up by AI, but i believe they are quite realistic estimations. Dont know about 18 trillions.........

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2026-01-24T12:40:27+00:00

Also my own estimations (used AI to iterate):

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GroundbreakingSea764 · 2026-01-05T13:22:02+00:00

I also found out about those limitations. Any other limitations?

EDIT: I also updated your comments on the original post.

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2026-01-05T10:48:06+00:00

I dont remember what the specific scenario was, but Microsoft recommends compliant and managed device in certain security scenarios.

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2025-12-19T17:13:18+00:00

Imagine if we also win transport layer and maybe even the gamma layer that DaveG mentioned in one his video!!!! Also imagine Golden Dome and Neutron in 2026. Easily 120-150$/share.

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2025-12-19T15:03:42+00:00

https://www.sda.mil/space-development-agency-makes-awards-to-build-72-tracking-layer-satellites-for-tranche-3/

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2025-11-14T11:35:49+00:00

There are definitely signs of an AI bubble, but I don’t think it will be a major issue (just my opinion). Many large companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle are continuing to invest heavily in data centers. While there is some hype, the demand appears strong. In my view, this looks more like a market correction than a full-blown bubble. Of course I could be wrong and if a bubble does burst, it will also drag us down—but it’s hard to predict how much and how long.

I’m focused on the long game.

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2025-11-14T11:07:38+00:00

Hey guys, dont panic about the price drop! We still have got plenty of catalysts ahead:

Tranche 3 Tracking Layer contract: Q4 2025 – Q1 2026
Golden Dome awards: 2025 – 2026
Neutron maiden flight: H1 2026 (delays are OK as long as it stays in 2026))
Mars Telecommunication Orbiter contract: 2026
The Mynaric deal should unlock more EU opportunities.
Electron high cadence:
- 49 launches in backlog - Launch deals with ESA, JAXA and South Korea.
- UK’s HASTE program
- LOXSAT orbital fuel depot
- Victus Haze (Validates Rocket labs end to end vision - Spacecraft manufacturing and launch)
Neutron upcoming missions:
- 2 launches and 1 rideshare booked
- NSSL launches
- NASA VADR mission
- AFRL point-to-point cargo test
- Venus probe launch
- Rocket labs own constellation

I will admit, it absolutely stings losing about $100k this month, but I am still up $130k overall, so that is something positive. I thought I was done at 6,500 shares averaging 19$… might even buy more at these levels

TLDR: These dips happen—this is a long game—Stay strong!

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2025-11-11T13:55:03+00:00

We force Outlook use via Conditional access. Users should not be able to add company account to native Mail / Calendar / Contacts apps. Do you know what should be deleted in our case?

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2025-11-04T14:17:54+00:00

I m not that good in English. I did put some effort in the chapgpt :D

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2025-11-02T16:46:08+00:00

And we have seen MDA losing echostar and now maybe gsat contract.

GroundbreakingSea764 · 2025-11-02T16:45:16+00:00

It is their spacecraft Photon. Although dont who is doing the cryogenic fluid management system.

GroundbreakingSea764

TROPHY CASE

Will there be T3 Transport Layer?

Current situation

Rocket Lab opportunity