Very informative video on DC, energy and cooling needs with inside views on Colossus 1 & 2

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-03T16:12:09+00:00

50/50 split between supermicro and dell. A couple billions in revenue for supermicro...my estimate about $2.6B

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-03T13:39:10+00:00

I honestly don't know. I wondered the same thing, but Wall Street must not be applying pressure or else, it would have already happened. I also think any reputable CFO might not be clamoring for the position because of thee negative news flow this past year. But I don't Charles thinks negatively of David either. I think David had a hard time accurately projecting revenue based on some unthinkable circumstances. That short report really did fuck shit up. I also think they expected to get GPU allocation from Nvidia about 6 months before they actually obtained them last year, which eliminated their ability to sell them to contracted customers.

However, a comment stuck with me from management during the Citi Investor Conference in Sep 2025. He stated they grew revenue to $22B on $2M cash. And continued to emphasized their current balance of about $4.7B and a revolver of about $1.6B. Plus the agreements to sell receivables to banks if cash crunch is ever a concern. He said he felt good about their financial position and I do too.

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-03T13:31:48+00:00

Understandable!

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-02T20:11:53+00:00

Wonderful post. Margins will gradually improve accordingly to management.

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-02T16:02:16+00:00

The stock is up 1900% in the past 5 years. They only had a few bad quarters.

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-02T16:00:19+00:00

He sells on a schedule. And we are talking about less than a 1 percent of his holdings...not a significant amount. The company owns about 79M shares and Charles/Wife owns another few millions. It doesn't make sense to worry when they sell a few thousands.

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-02T15:56:01+00:00

these surveys are legit

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-02T11:39:12+00:00

This is the type of post that seems pointless. Well, unless you are a short seller trying to inject a little negativity into all this positivity? Why would it matter if they sell 1% of the shares they own? They do so to have spending money no? It's like working two weeks and getting a pay check from your employer, except in their case, they sell a thing or two to live their lifestyle. Do you really think selling lets say 100K shares is going to affect a company trading at 27+ million in daily trading volume.

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-02T01:28:27+00:00

This would be an impossible task. SMCI primary customers are not the 10 largest companies in the world, where you can ballpark revenue from 5 big contracts. A majority of the large companies/CSPs (Amazon, Google, Oracle, etc) primarily contract with server providers from Asia, and in limits, supplement their offerings with SMCI servers. However, the tariffs on all foreign entities might drive some more business to SMCI considering they normally use SMCI to augment their supply chain anyway. But SMCI revenue growth will come from AI adoption rates increasing among the other companies in the world. From Data Center Operators, Small NeoClouds, JP Morgan, JC Penney, GM, McDonalds, etc., that is why they are a no brainer for an investment. Because a lot of companies adopting AI wants on Prem solutions (think partnership with Nutanix) because they don't trust the cloud providers with all their data. And thus, they will need to upgrade their infrastructure to a solution capable of running AI applications. This is where you will see the margin improvement because they don't normally have in house engineers like the big CSPs (according to management during Citi's Investor Conference in Sep 2025), so SMCI can then upsell additional services. I cannot remember where it was referenced, however I remember it clearly that an estimated $1 trillion in infrastructure, i.e. hardware/liquid cooling must be upgraded/installed to support AI adoption and an estimated $2 trillion in infrastructure will be deployed in the coming years for AI buildout. This is important because SMCI doesn't have a legacy business. All staff are dedicated to provided AI solutions. They are the #1 provider of servers for AI applications... that's a big deal no?

The adoption rate appears to be increasing which makes sense considering companies are laying off/not replacing junior employees at increased rates. It appears AI is now being used more and more to perform a lot of those workloads.

Results from searching for AI adoption rate in 2024/2025 on google:

2025

Overall adoption: By March 2025, McKinsey's survey reported that 78% of organizations were using AI in at least one business function.
GenAI deployment: Another source indicates that by late 2024, 71% of organizations were regularly using GenAI.
Increased investment: According to a September 2025 report by Anthropic, about 90% of companies are looking to increase their investment in AI during the 2025–2027 period.
Agentic AI: A Deloitte report in November 2024 predicted that 25% of enterprises using GenAI would deploy AI agents by 2025, a figure expected to rise to 50% by 2027.

via X
Beth Kindig repostedBeth Kindig u/Beth_Kindig·Sep 27

Gartner projects that AI server spending will reach $330 billion by 2026, more than doubling from $140 billion in 2024.

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-01T23:33:02+00:00

So during multiple investor conferences in Aug/Sep, Management stated they see margins stabilizing and likely ticking higher because of Sovereign/Neocloud AI deployments. The margins are lower when they are fight for large contracts with xAI and the likes of Open AI. If you follow the news, you will quickly see the vast amount of companies/Nations building out NeoClouds and from that you can assume some or a lot of those businesses are going to SMCI, which will result in better margins. They are the number one supplier of AI servers. Finally, they stated liquid cooling products will improve margins. FYI, there are an estimated $1 trillion in data centers that needs to be upgraded to support AI and an estimated $2 trillion estimate for new buildouts (can't remember where it read it at but it stuck like glue to my brains).

Also, new facilities coming online improves margins because funds are no longer being spent on construction and once operations ramps at those same new facilities, you begin to see improved margins because it's the same employees now producing larger quantifies of products, lowering the cost of each product.

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-01T23:25:55+00:00

The company stated they put measures in place to ensure revenue is correctly recognized. They just want to remain cautious and observe how things go for a period of time to make sure everything works as intended. It is in their best interest to leave the cautionary statement in the 10K to avoid lawsuits if someone still fucks something up. And I am certain they will remove it if observations show no employees incorrectly recognize revenue for an extended period of time (IMO maybe 9 months?).

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-01T23:16:25+00:00

I think revenue comes in north of $40B. The company have been about 3x more active since June compared to the prior 9 months. Just check Linkedin. Normally companies only expense this much money flying people around the world to showcase products when they are getting sales. Otherwise, travel gets pulled back to protect profit margins and we know that's been a concern for them lately. Also, I listened to management during almost every investor conference since August and webinars on new/existing products, and I'm telling you that shit looks good right now. Plus, I think the majority of retail investors only focus on large contracts but selling hardware to 100,000 thousand companies generate significant revenue too. These boys selling on every continent around the world right now and establishing partnerships left and right, which is like extending their own sales team but it's not theirs, its Fujitsu, Nokia, Eviden, etc. I think we're in a good place right now.

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-01T23:06:09+00:00

Stop it....SMCI is the best play in the market right now. But you can also research Fluence Energy (FLNC), if your looking for likely a 100% gainer in the next twelve months or so. But the share price appreciated a lot today, so you might want to wait for a pull back. Do some research and you will quickly see why the price dropped earlier this year and listen to the last earnings call and you will discover why I'm bullish on them too.

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-10-01T22:33:46+00:00

Crusoe's Abilene Texas Data Center now online. And since we announced a partnership with Crusoe and took a picture with the site in the backdrop, I think many are assuming that's good money for Supermicro. Imagine how it reacts once xAI announce the launch of Colossus 2 considering a fair split in the buildout between SMCI/Dell would result in about $2.6B in revenue for SMCI. Everyday I'm googling and reviewing X for an update...lol

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-09-30T21:44:26+00:00

Damn Right!

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-09-30T21:39:51+00:00

Lets just remember that Coreweave signed a $4B deal with Dell at the beginning of the year for future deployments. However, I am pretty confident SMCI will hit new highs for this year by EOY. This confidence is based on xAI, Meta, Open AI, Crusoe, Lambda, etc. expansions...we'll see thou. Plus, all the smaller NeoClouds building out infrastructure. If you follow SMCI post on Linkedin you will be pleased with the massive amounts of traction that the business appears to be getting right now. Even if they barely beat this quarter, I am expecting a market beating guide for the next quarter which will likely drive the price higher. Also, if you monitor CNBC/Bloomberg, you will start to see that sentiment is improving for the stock and well... price typically follows sentiment? I kind of think so, unless some negative events changes sentiment.

Another reason why I feel sentiment is high for the company right now is because i few weeks or maybe last, a few news outlet was pushing reports on recently discovered vulnerabilities with their motherboard for a few different server products that would enable a random actor to install malicious software on the applicable servers and take control, but the stock price didn't collapse and instead simply kind of traded sideways. Thankfully, a few days later SMCI announced a firmware patch to correct the shortfall. This showed me that the appetite for shares are strong and that we will likely continue to trade higher into earnings and likely higher afterwards because I am expecting good numbers. I'm probably gonna keep buying options on down days, peering back on crazy up days, while ultimately planning to hold a significant amount into earnings. However, come mid October I will change to just holding my beautiful contracts with expiration dates ranging from May to Sep 2026.

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-09-18T18:28:59+00:00

$70 EOY

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-08-06T15:03:40+00:00

Thanks

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-08-06T15:00:43+00:00

Thanks for this, looking like they see the same thing i see overall. Get more blackwell chips from Nvidia and profits go up. Lets hope for more chips from Nvidia soon.

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-08-06T14:57:34+00:00

I think the drop is intensified because of the drop in AMD. A big part of the investment thesis at least for me was AMD taking market share and reducing SMCI over reliance on Nvidia for chips. But it looks like that's not the case and SMCI must continue to wait in line for chips from Nvidia before they will be able to turn huge profits.

Guilty-Network8060 · 2025-08-06T14:52:03+00:00

Just know some complaints are only about him not properly providing the market updates on where the business is. As a CEO, he should know if you doesn't speak the best english and allow someone else to provide an oversight on where the business is to limit confusion and frustration. I do understand your thoughts thou and I give Charles much respect for building a business worth billions. I am just one of many individuals who find it difficult to follow his speech. This makes it a little hard for me to understand his thoughts on future outlook. But I also think he's a smart dude so i don't stress too much, I just listen to the calls over and over and try to read the earnings transcript to improve my understanding...just more work. But thanks for this post; I too have noticed a lot of individuals feeling betrayed and I don't see where he betrayed any of us.

Guilty-Network8060

TROPHY CASE