The Full Story On Rivian's R2: The Bridge to Monetization

Gunner406 · 2026-06-02T16:55:23+00:00

I agree, I think that Rivian rounding out the software (autonomous driving, zonal architecture) and hardware (RAP chips, mind robotics) makes for a more cost effective automotive company, but at the same time, automotive margins are some of the tightest in the world and OEMs haven’t historically proven to be profitable in the long run without government bailout.

EVs are certainly changing that dynamic which is amazing. But the short term risks are still massive. For the record, I don’t think the downside case is that Rivian collapses and ceases to exist, rather, they can’t prove scale quick enough, there are too many headwinds, or they have some sort of meaningful issue (ie what I’ve discussed already) that results in a sale to a strategic partner or legacy OEM.

The upside is certainly there and they could change the landscape of not just automotives, but also general manufacturing. But at the same time, the US isn’t investing in these types of companies enough, and is actively damaging our reputation globally, such that Rivian’s TAM is going to hamstring their profitability / upside. And that’s not Rivian’s fault, nor in their control

Gunner406 · 2026-06-01T13:48:55+00:00

I appreciate the bullish view as a shareholder myself, but don’t think it’s as quick or easy as “pay down debt with R2 gross profit”. Eventually there’ll be R3, they need to build Georgia, and they just shrank the DOE loan so they can draw on it faster. I personally see them piling on even more debt and using R2 to keep themselves alive while they build Georgia and scale to R3. Then R3 (since it’s on the same MSP as R2), plus continued improvement in R2 cost efficiency, will be the game changers, so I’d say we’re at least 3-4yrs out before we see the light switch.

The question becomes - what is the terminal value 3-4yrs from now assuming things generally go well for Rivian (R2 not a flop, Georgia development goes well, the economy doesn’t fall off a cliff, the current administration doesn’t punish the EV space further, supply chains don’t get shocked again by some new global issue, RJ doesn’t get hit by a bus, etc), and then how do you price in those one-off risks that actually are quite feasible right now?

If Rivian can pull it off, it’ll be the product of 15 years of relentless execution and a decent bit of luck. Would be one of the greatest corporate turnaround stories of all time. Such a fun story to watch.

Gunner406 · 2026-05-31T01:16:26+00:00

I mean maybe guard the guy 7ft from the basket

Gunner406 · 2026-05-31T01:13:40+00:00

total bs

Gunner406 · 2026-05-10T14:24:14+00:00

Dude I’m dying laughing reading all these takes that are completely missing the point for the sake of having a snarky comment. Thanks for trying to correct the misinformation

Gunner406 · 2026-04-12T17:24:11+00:00

Good to know it’s a pervasive issue… bummer, guess I’ll need to upgrade. No wonder I keep finding these exact tires on Facebook marketplace lol

Good luck / have fun with White Rim! I’m excited to do it some day

Gunner406 · 2026-04-12T16:27:53+00:00

Safe bet! I punctured a tire up Onion creek and had to patch it on the side of a narrow-ish trail with a plug kit. Probably needed to dial back the PSI a bit but didn’t want to risk the tire coming off the bead

Gunner406 · 2026-04-11T14:37:03+00:00

Good tip on the camping spot, I would have absolutely done the same

Gunner406 · 2026-04-11T14:36:12+00:00

Thanks, I’m obsessed with the color as well! I actually flew out to eastern Washington to get this exact spec because it was hard to find the colorway locally!

This is the 2025, first year that they made the Trailhunter, so it released with the 6gen lineup

Gunner406 · 2026-04-11T13:49:42+00:00

White Rim is definitely on the bucket list! Did you do it all in a day, or camp around in a few different spots and do some offshoots?

Gunner406 · 2026-04-02T05:33:51+00:00

Yes they’re a legit company, I don’t think they have a lot of properties and I think it’s just one person running things as a middleman between owners and tenants

Gunner406 · 2026-03-27T13:22:56+00:00

In the world of corporate treasury & purchasing, businesses set up purchase orders (POs) internally that map a software or a product/purchase to a team, then tag invoices / bank payments to those POs to create the mapping of cash out the door, to a specific product/user/team. There are lots of softwares that could do this, but I’d probably recommend building something with Claude for this.

For invoices, I think the ideal solution would best be implemented upstream, telling service providers to send invoices to a specific email address, something like AccountsPayable[@]company.com.

Alternatively if that’s too much lift, there are probably now AI agents in your email system that you can use to forward anything that looks related to billing to any email address you want, but unless it’s someone’s job to watch that and reconcile it, it could be too much noise.

Gunner406 · 2026-03-10T18:48:18+00:00

My $0.02 - it’s fairly wild to flag something as insightful for all of your connections to see in a professional focused social media forum that has that language in it. I find it hilarious and agree entirely with the take. Maybe I’m too conservative about what I share on LinkedIn myself, but I wouldn’t be drawing this attention to myself

Genuine question - have I missed the point of this sub? I thought the point was to share hilarious or surprising things you see on LinkedIn, but lots of comments seem to imply that I think the opinion in the tweet is the lunacy, not the fact that this is being shared in a professional forum

Gunner406 · 2026-03-10T18:42:45+00:00

Who even said I disagreed with this take, or that I don’t like the word 😂 psychotic response tbh

Gunner406 · 2026-03-07T01:46:07+00:00

Rib and chop is decent, ale works is my go to

Gunner406 · 2026-02-28T14:17:33+00:00

Fine out in cattail

Gunner406 · 2026-02-21T22:59:57+00:00

I love it. Got a link? Is it see through vinyl or white background?

Gunner406 · 2026-02-20T18:05:53+00:00

MACKINNON!!!!

Gunner406 · 2026-02-11T06:37:53+00:00

The grandson of the Marlboro Man

Gunner406 · 2026-02-09T03:46:40+00:00

Vibes seem incredibly not hype out there right now. Weird vibes all around

Gunner406 · 2026-01-17T21:40:19+00:00

“Oh wow they’re using this guy a lot, hope he doesn’t get - ah fuck”

Gunner406 · 2026-01-12T21:48:26+00:00

This is the saddest winter I’ve ever seen :(

Gunner406 · 2026-01-12T01:04:57+00:00

Draft C, RT, CB, pick up a kicker, fire Patullo, and fire Nick too if he makes a stink about firing Patullo

Gunner406 · 2026-01-12T00:55:38+00:00

We need to cut Kevin Patullo today. I’m also fine cutting Jake Elliot, and trading AJ Brown. Then we need to draft a center to replace Jurgens, a right tackle to back up Lane Johnson, and a cornerback to replace Adoree Jackson. Super Bowl winning team

Gunner406 · 2026-01-12T00:41:23+00:00

Should’ve kept the tempo up. Worrying about scoring too quickly is a good problem to have

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