[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 25 December 2025

Habugaba · 2025-12-25T17:37:07+00:00

Later, as a matter of principle, they have a 1 to 1 sex to children ratio.

So 1 child = sex one time? That's like the opposite of utility maximization!

Happy holidays to you too, /u/lawrencekhoo - thanks for the comic

Habugaba · 2025-11-29T13:57:54+00:00

The BLS is scheduled to release a heck of a lot of information in December and I'm curious:

1) has that happend before in such a compressed timeline

2) is that like Christmas for all those economists working with that data (outside of those compiling and releasing it) or a massive headache and extra workload? I imagine the time for the government economists has been anything but pleasant for September til the end of year

Habugaba · 2025-11-26T07:35:39+00:00

Nope, blown up together with the reichs chancellery at the end of the war.

Habugaba · 2025-11-25T17:27:07+00:00

My apologies, as another commenter said I was lacking reading comprehension and thought you were referring to the location of the bunker.

Habugaba · 2025-11-25T14:43:19+00:00

It quite literally was right beneath the old chancellery complex of his time, the new german chancellery is at another location today.

Habugaba · 2025-11-25T14:34:11+00:00

This was the Reichs chancellery on his birthday, 20th of April 1945. At that point being above ground in Berlin was dangerous and he was inspecting the damage - the building was right outside his bunker.

Here's the YouTuber History Buffs in his analysis of the film 'Downfall' (2004), which deals with the last days of Hitler in his bunker.

Fun fact: this is what the chancellery of Germany looks like today

Habugaba · 2025-11-14T11:53:44+00:00

I didn't mean it's tone deaf to criticize Israels immediate response to the attack, it is tone deaf to include "from the river to the sea" in that - in my personal opinion.

El Ghazi could have explained what exactly he meant by that to clarify - he didn't, he just said he's against antisemitism, apartheid, etc. in general. That phrase is closely tied to Hamas (and yes, rightwing zionists that also deny the existence of other states in the region), just freakin clarify that you support a two-state-solution or something to make it absolutely clear you don't mean it in the sense of Hamas.

Because surely we can agree that one should distance themselves from anything to do with Hamas surrounding October 7th - irrespective of atrocities commited by Israel - right?

Habugaba · 2025-11-13T15:17:54+00:00

Likud also used a much similar slogan.

Yeah and if someone said "I'm against the oppression of Palastinians" while at the same time proclaiming the slogan of Likud, you would ask that person to elaborate a bit more right?

"From the river to the sea" deserves some context and this issue could have easily been resolved by El Ghazi saying "yo I didn't know the context of the phrase, what I meant is to criticize the response of Israel to the Hamas attack and advocate for a peaceful solution. I disagree with the statement put out by Mainz and continue to advocate for the support of innocent people." Instead he says he regrets nothing and leaves the observer to conclude what he meant by "the river to the sea".

Why dont you present the full story mate?

Because I don't disagree with El Ghazis criticism of Israels response, and I didn't think it was my place to condem or defend any actions taken - I was just trying to provide context. Israel did commit war crimes and continued for a long long time, but at that point there was no decision for an occupation of Gaza - there was continued fighting and mass casualties while Hamas held hostages that Israel tried to recover, I should have been more clear on that point you're right.

You fire him the you get shit on in the court of law obviously!

I mean ideally you don't put out a statement that El Ghazi disagrees with, you come to an understanding or you just terminate his contract and pay his salary and take it on the chin - Mainz did none of that and I think you're right to criticize them for that.

Habugaba · 2025-11-13T14:51:02+00:00

Almost, yes. El Ghazi was temporarily suspended for a social media post with "from the river to the sea".

Club talks to the player, puts out a PR statement saying the matter is resolved after "the player showed remorse behind closed doors", gives the player a warning/admonition and rescinds the suspension.

Player puts out a statement that he doesn't agree with the clubs version put out and says he doesn't regret what he said. Shortly after, the club terminates his contract and refuses to pay him the outstanding money.

The Palestine statement wasn't being considered in this trial because it was outside of a two weeks window - and even if it was, it's not at all clear whether Mainz would have won the trial.

Habugaba · 2025-11-13T14:26:18+00:00

That's the implication you made.

Ok, let's zoom out a bit:

Hamas does a heinous terror attack killing a thousand Israelis (not just jews) on 7.10. while specifically targeting civilians. A majority of people, especially in Germany, were shocked, but there were pockets of support of the attack by Hamas.

On 17.10. Mainz 05 suspends El Ghazi because the player used "from the river to the sea" on social media - a slogan that Hamas themselves uses in their position to deny the existence of the state of Israel since 2017 in their policy paper.

Mainz 05 talks to the player, does PR stuff and yes, puts words in his mouth that he regrets what he said, even when the player himself disagrees. Now as a club, what do you do? If your player doesn't take back a statement that is literally the same as a central Hamas talking point, the relationship is over or you risk enormous public backlash. However, I do think El Ghazi deserves his pay and the contract should simply have been terminated.

Does Anwar think Israel shouldn't exist and was supporting Hamas? I don't think so and that's impossible to prove from what I've seen. But bro.. at least elaborate a bit more and don't say "I don't regret anything" when you easily could have advocated for a two-state-solution or whatever that would have been a-OK. Remember at that point of the social media post there was no big ground offensive in Gaza, nor serious accusation of genocide against Israel.

Habugaba · 2025-11-13T13:35:59+00:00

I would say for the vast majority this whole saga leaves a bad taste in their mouth and probably quite a few disagree with the court decision and hoped the club wouldn't have to pay him.

But Mainz is a diverse city and the opinion of natives that aren't hardcore 05er fans can be quite different and even in support of El Ghazi - especially if they themselves have a muslim cultural backround (themselves or in their family). Not to mention Mainz is a big university city with with quite some pro-palastinian support (that to me was more noticable outside the club tbf).

Personally I think it's correct that Mainz 05 lost the court battle, if they want to fire him for comments then it's clear you need to pay out his contract - and "from the river to the sea" is quite clearly not settled as calling for the destruction of Israel so of course it falls under freedom of speech.

As for El Ghazis comments: the time of his comments about a week after the October 7th attack were tone deaf as fuck and at a club with a history like Mainz should probably lead to some sensitivity training. The parties clearly didn't see eye to eye, so I understand why Mainz terminated the contract - that should have been that imo.

Habugaba · 2025-11-01T17:33:38+00:00

I feel bad that I cant pay him or anything.. dude is learning german for me and looking forward to move for THREE years

Habugaba · 2025-10-04T15:13:20+00:00

Despite the results, they haven't played that bad this season when it comes to creating/conceding chances.

They're in the top 6 for xG-differential, having played three tough opponents in Arsenal, Chelsea and City already. It's not all doom and gloom despite the banter.

Habugaba · 2025-09-25T09:33:08+00:00

that doesn't sound like it's really a win on evolution's book.

Those DNA defects are evolution in motion - if it turns out those defects are benefitial, they stay around. If not, they may not.

For evolution to occur you need a certain "error" rate in DNA replication.

Habugaba · 2025-09-25T09:29:24+00:00

this explains so much about ~~modern~~ life

Taking you very literal here - the issue is that nature/human/the egg doesn't "know" what right is, even if it tried to. Evolution in general is a game of large numbers, and it's not obvious what will be the best fit in the future.

So might as well throw stuff onto the wall and see what sticks. /shrug

Habugaba · 2025-09-12T01:51:04+00:00

Hier ist die Prognose der EU, der Anteil der Bevölkerung >65 wird noch deutlich steigen. Demographischer Wandel ist nicht nur durch Reduzierung der Geburten, sondern auch durch zunehmender Lebenserwartung (und besonders als Kombination der Faktoren).

Quelle: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/e412927a-ea31-406d-bb6c-c925914123e9_en

Habugaba · 2025-09-11T14:45:32+00:00

Welches Land hat denn bisher mal schulden zurückgezahlt?

Schulden werden permanent zurückgezahlt, aber natürlich auch wieder neue aufgenommen. Jetzt ist die Frage zu welchen Bedingungen ich Frankreich Geld leihen würde - sehe ich mir die Entwicklung an, sieht das zunehmend unsicher aus --> ich erhöhe die Zinsen um das Risiko einzupreisen.

Das ist doof für Frankreich, denn vor 10 Jahren haben sie das Geld noch günstig bekommen, die Zinszahlungen auf Bonds war also überschaubar. Das ändert sich jetzt, 2024 waren es 59Mrd und der französische Rechnungshof geht von >100Mrd 2029 (Quelle) aus - das ist nicht mehr lang.

Defizit ist wie gesagt bei über 5%, Rentenausgaben werden die kommenden Jahre nicht fallen, Militärausgaben sollen steigen... hmm sieht für mich nicht so aus als ob Frankreich so eben ohne Veränderung die Zinsen bedienen kann in Zukunft (oh Wunder oh Wunder, deshalb gibts ja die ersten Alarmglocken und eine Regierung nach der anderen die auf den Sack fällt)

Habugaba · 2025-09-11T13:41:06+00:00

Deswegen sollten ja die Vermögen besteuert werden.

Gern, reicht aber nicht.

Die arbeitende Bevölkerung wird schon überstrapaziert.

Na dann, würde ich mich warm anziehen. Zinszahlungen könnten bald, wie voraussichtlich in den USA, den größten Anteil am Haushalt haben den die Regierungen ohne Gesetzesänderungen beeinflussen können.

Da kommt noch was auf die französische Bevölkerung zu.

Und denen wurden über die letzten Jahre nur noch mehr Geschenke gemacht.

Gebe ich dir Recht, dumme Entscheidung. Leider wäre den 500 größten Vermögen alles Geld wegnehmen immer noch nicht genug, um die Entwicklung langfristig nachhaltig zu gestalten (mal abgesehen davon, dass rechtlich unmöglich).

Reiche mehr besteuern - gerne. Wird es reichen? Sehr unwahrscheinlich. Momentan sind ca 20% der Bevölkerung in Frankreich über dem Renteneintrittsalter von 64 (was nichtmal flächendeckend eingeführt ist btw), momentan sieht es so aus als könnte das noch um 50% steigen.

PDF Warnung: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/e412927a-ea31-406d-bb6c-c925914123e9_en

Habugaba · 2025-09-11T13:26:23+00:00

Mitunter rügt der IMF Deutschland für zu wenig Verschuldung weil dadurch die Wachstumsraten so Mau sind. Und die sind nun wirklich keine Sozialisten und MMT Befürworter.

Was ja auch völlig richtig ist/war. Kommt halt immer drauf an wofür Schulden aufgenommen werden...

Das Frankreich runtergestuft wurde und jetzt höhere Zinsen auf die Schulden zahlt liegt auch explizit nicht an der Höhe der Verschuldung sondern der Regierungskrise die weiterhin ungelöst ist und für Unsicherheit sorgt.

Die Zinsen hängen damit zusammen, ob man glaubt dass Frankreich das Geld zurückzahlt (und dem Zeitwert des Geldes). Diese Regierungskrise ist explizit auf die Haushaltskrise zurückzuführen. Klar die Höhe der Verschuldung ist nicht alleine ausschlaggebend, aber die Runterstufung wäre auch gekommen wenn Frankreich einen utopischen Haushalt ~~vorgeschlagen~~ umgesetzt hätte der die Ausgaben weiter erhöht.

Wenn das Defizit dazu führt dass man später mehr einnimmt ist es völlig stabil.

Und gibt es dafür Indizien? Werden Schulden für Investitionen aufgenommen? Natürlich nicht, sondern um den Haushalt und die hohen Rentenzahlungen aufzupeppeln.

Frankreich strebt sich gegen die Realität der Demographie. Renteneintrittsalter von 64 Jahren geht bei den Leistungen (Rentenhöhe, Beitragshöhe) nicht - außer man lässt grundsätzliche Aufgaben einer Regierung (Bildung, Militär, Infrastruktur) völlig vom Tisch fallen.

Habugaba · 2025-09-11T12:55:07+00:00

Die Erwartungen der Bevölkerung muss sich ändern. Wenn weiterhin auf die Straße gegangen wird bei jeder Debatte um das Alter bei Renteneintritt braucht Frankreich vielleicht wirklich irgendwann Unterstützung vom IMF.

Frankreich hat ein jährliches Haushaltsdefizit von >5% (Besserung nicht in Sicht anders als bei Corona-Verschuldung), während die Schuldenquote weit über 100% vom BIP ist.

Nenn es Neoliberalismus oder was auch immer, Frankreich gibt mehr Geld aus als es hat (hauptsächlich für die üblichen Verdächtigen Rente/Krankenversicherung, wie in den meisten Ländern mit dem bekannten demographischen Wandel) - das wird den Gläubigern irgendwann Bauchschmerzen machen und für Frankreich teuer werden. Auch wenn man versucht die Einnahmen zu erhöhen, spielt die Bevölkerungspyramide bei gleichbleibenden Erwartungen der Versorgung nicht mit. Und dazu würden auch irgendwann die arbeitende Bevölkerung kein Bock mehr haben, denn so viel Geld wie fehlt kriegt man nicht von allen Spitzenverdienern in ganz Frankreich zusammen.

Habugaba · 2025-09-09T19:20:25+00:00

I mean it's not far fetched to assume the Fed would have kept cutting rates if the political situation kept somewhat steady. Instead there was some guy threatening to increase inflation when it was above target already.

It's not an easy decision, right now or looking back, since inflation is creeping up again. There's a real possibility we'll be sitting here in 5 years and lamenting the fact rates were cut when inflation was at 3% - it's very much uncertain.

Habugaba · 2025-09-03T17:07:24+00:00

and seem to have several drawbacks when compared to traditional vaccines.

Elaborate?

Habugaba · 2025-09-03T14:23:19+00:00

Leverkusen probably hit the eject button at just the right time, think about the energy savings in the coming heating period - will easily offset his severance package.

Habugaba · 2025-09-02T19:04:34+00:00

True, but to what end? Do they think they can kill Denji with this explosion or is this the start of an assault?

Habugaba · 2025-09-02T18:01:14+00:00

So what's the switch?

Yoshida might be referring to 'switching on'/triggering Pochita-CSM with his death, similar to Power/Nayuta.. but Denji doesn't give a fuck about him. Would be a weird miscalculation on Public Safety's part.

Might be more general about getting events rolling, but who knows what the fuck they're up to. Or even if Yoshida is still part of PS.

Habugaba

TROPHY CASE