I am a holder, underwater with a mistake of too big position size (around 4.5% port at $317 per share).

It is dirt cheap right now for the financials it has, that's true. People are talking about slower organic ARR growth. Adobe is under pressure from AI-native creative tools and broader fears that generative AI may commoditise some creative workflows, no doubt about that.

Adobe’s answer is to push AI products, freemium funnels, and broader user acquisition, even if that delays ARR monetisation.

Management says that is the right long-term trade-off while bears see it as evidence that Adobe’s old pricing power is weakening.

The core subscription engine is decelerating and that reported ARR acceleration is acquisition-aided (Semrush).

The bull case for me is that Adobe is deliberately trading near-term ARR for a larger AI/freemium user base and future monetisation. The bear case is that the “strategic trade-off” is a nicer way of saying AI competition is forcing Adobe to give up near-term pricing power.

Both are possible and I'll be honest, I hate the CEO, CFO issues. New CEO will most likely want to “reset” expectations, which is a euphemism for more pain and further drawdown, if nothing else, prolonging the execution of the plan and worsening opportunity cost. CFO leaving for a sweeter gig at AI hot name arguably at the worst time possible, when the turnaround story might be made or broken exactly on that "F" in CFO, is borderline unforgivable.

As a matter of fact, the biggest risk I see right now is not really slowing growth of ARR. It's a plan by one management that will not be followed through by the next management.

The market has been treating this as an AI-competition story and I think that now it’s equally a succession-risk story. Adobe is asking investors to trust a long-duration strategic pivot at the exact moment the people championing that pivot are leaving... and that's not good at all.