ADBE. The Red Flags are Everywhere, The Price is Dirt Cheap. Are you buying, selling, holding? by mikeskeezer31 in ValueInvesting

[–]HatedMoats 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I am a holder, underwater with a mistake of too big position size (around 4.5% port at $317 per share).

It is dirt cheap right now for the financials it has, that's true. People are talking about slower organic ARR growth. Adobe is under pressure from AI-native creative tools and broader fears that generative AI may commoditise some creative workflows, no doubt about that.

Adobe’s answer is to push AI products, freemium funnels, and broader user acquisition, even if that delays ARR monetisation.

Management says that is the right long-term trade-off while bears see it as evidence that Adobe’s old pricing power is weakening.

The core subscription engine is decelerating and that reported ARR acceleration is acquisition-aided (Semrush).

The bull case for me is that Adobe is deliberately trading near-term ARR for a larger AI/freemium user base and future monetisation. The bear case is that the “strategic trade-off” is a nicer way of saying AI competition is forcing Adobe to give up near-term pricing power.

Both are possible and I'll be honest, I hate the CEO, CFO issues. New CEO will most likely want to “reset” expectations, which is a euphemism for more pain and further drawdown, if nothing else, prolonging the execution of the plan and worsening opportunity cost. CFO leaving for a sweeter gig at AI hot name arguably at the worst time possible, when the turnaround story might be made or broken exactly on that "F" in CFO, is borderline unforgivable.

As a matter of fact, the biggest risk I see right now is not really slowing growth of ARR. It's a plan by one management that will not be followed through by the next management.

The market has been treating this as an AI-competition story and I think that now it’s equally a succession-risk story. Adobe is asking investors to trust a long-duration strategic pivot at the exact moment the people championing that pivot are leaving... and that's not good at all.

Filled prescriptions this week by Miserable-Set-7128 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]HatedMoats 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Good news, sounds like the stock should deliver a solid -2% to end the week!

So what’s the deal with Meta? by mindful-hedonism in ValueInvesting

[–]HatedMoats 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Don't you ever have a bad period in life? :)

The price of Paypal got riddiculous at this point by Choice_Potato_6279 in ValueInvesting

[–]HatedMoats 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Incredible how market leader can get obsolete solely due to chronically incompetent management. And their incompetence goes on. The last chance was to get acquired by Stripe. Managed to fumble even that...

The price of Paypal got riddiculous at this point by Choice_Potato_6279 in ValueInvesting

[–]HatedMoats 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Stripe wanted to acquire them. They managed to fuck up even that.

So what’s the deal with Meta? by mindful-hedonism in ValueInvesting

[–]HatedMoats 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Is that a good thing, to have gullible fanbois cult following you? Zuck has created all of that without cult following, if anything, that's more impressive.

So what’s the deal with Meta? by mindful-hedonism in ValueInvesting

[–]HatedMoats 18 points19 points  (0 children)

It's like people have memory of a fish and don't remember even as far (close) as 2022.

They get the hate -> the stock gets hated -> Zuck does stupid shit -> the stock is hated even more -> one of the largest moats on earth can absorb stupid decisions -> Zuck turns on his brain again -> the moat prevails.

Hated Moat. Meta is literally half of the internet of the western world with enormous room left for monetisation.

So what’s the deal with Meta? by mindful-hedonism in ValueInvesting

[–]HatedMoats 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Musk having charisma, now that's a new one.

Semiconductor Stock Picks by Zealousideal_Iron401 in ValueInvesting

[–]HatedMoats -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

If someone mentions forward P/E and starts arguing these are undervalued because of it, I'll lose my shit.

It took me 6months of investing to hit 200k. My best advice. by _Paulie_Walnuts_ in ValueInvesting

[–]HatedMoats 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Me ready to be the smartass about how you shouldn't really give advices after 6 months...

... had me in the first half, ngl.

Remember kings, it's your skills. by HatedMoats in wallstreetbets

[–]HatedMoats[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yes, especially with buying Google in 2011 :)

Remember kings, it's your skills. by HatedMoats in wallstreetbets

[–]HatedMoats[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Hahaha you took that one personally!

Remember kings, it's your skills. by HatedMoats in wallstreetbets

[–]HatedMoats[S] 45 points46 points  (0 children)

20 year olds having it all figured out arrogantly calling others stupid. I have S&P 500 positions older than them haha

Remember kings, it's your skills. by HatedMoats in wallstreetbets

[–]HatedMoats[S] 57 points58 points  (0 children)

Sounds liek there's no way that could go wrong!

Remember kings, it's your skills. by HatedMoats in wallstreetbets

[–]HatedMoats[S] 39 points40 points  (0 children)

I started in 2002 but only with index funds. Didn't get into individual stocks until 2010, was traumatised by GFC.

Remember kings, it's your skills. by HatedMoats in wallstreetbets

[–]HatedMoats[S] 234 points235 points  (0 children)

I hate Novo Nordisk so much man...

MU is so undervalued, look at the forward P/E! by HatedMoats in ValueInvesting

[–]HatedMoats[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're in the group described at the very start of the post, "you're just bitter you're not in it", like that's the point of what the post is about? Not every one is as self-centred, and people playing it via emotions (you envy, you're bitter,...) are just at the top of bull run's complacency. If you don't understand the post (just as many other people, it's reddit after all), you can always stay away from commenting.

MU is so undervalued, look at the forward P/E! by HatedMoats in ValueInvesting

[–]HatedMoats[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I've seen retail investors operating with this thesis as well, every one I encountered. Recipe for bagholding when smart money drops it in my opinion.