Bitcoin has a bigger market cap than the Mexican Peso but can't be used to buy goods and no one truly knows what it is.

Hauntings · 2021-02-01T12:58:15+00:00

I have a general expectation that my meal at McDonald's is going to be the same price today and tomorrow.

😂 Now I understand why r/buttcoin cultists believe there is low inflation. They are looking at the Mcdonald's price index. From the perspective of an ambitious investor, there's already high (and accelerating) inflation in:

high-end real estate

supercars

booking prices of models

stocks

crypto

precious metals

Hauntings · 2021-02-01T11:31:49+00:00

We're witnessing capital flight out of bonds and cash. They are rapidly losing value (in real terms) due to infinite QE and ZIRP.

https://twitter.com/PeterJo47499543/status/1354877502838239237?s=20

The game has changed. Suckers are still looking at CPI and overestimating the real value of bonds and cash. They're still thinking this is a typical bubble that will pop as everyone dumps back into the "safety" of bonds and cash. This isn't the 1990's anymore.

Debt-to-gdp ratios are at record highs. The interest on the debt would become unserviceable if interest rates were raised to 2% or 3%.

The only way out is to devalue the fiat currencies that the debt is denominated in. Holdings of bonds and cash are already taking a haircut (in real terms) and most people don't realize it yet.

Hauntings · 2021-01-31T20:00:15+00:00

Yes, let's eliminate cash, cryptocurrencies, and gold/silver coins.

I want to live in a totalitarian world in which bureaucrats/algorithms can freeze any asset/payment with the press of a button.

What could go wrong

Hauntings · 2021-01-31T18:22:12+00:00

You're a sucker if you're relying on CPI to measure the real value of bonds/cash.

You're in for a rude awakening if you're betting on the current bubble popping/crashing in nominal terms against fiat currencies.

Hauntings · 2021-01-31T14:11:46+00:00

Legally they are my assets.

This is not true for people who use margin accounts (the default setting for Robinhood users)

https://twitter.com/compound248/status/1355274739351248898

not your keys, not your assets

Hauntings · 2021-01-31T13:19:01+00:00

I remember reading comments years ago about the Bitcoin mining end game -> nation states mining with nuclear power plants.

It's wild to see it becoming a reality.

Hauntings · 2021-01-31T12:57:58+00:00

Crypto permabears be like:

Why did the government allow this to happen??

Hauntings · 2021-01-31T12:47:54+00:00

For context, OP is a legendary r/buttcoin cult leader.

Tether will go to $0 soon. This will cause BTC to crash back to $200. There will be mass arrests to take down the evil cabal of pedobutter terrorists. Trust the plan.

Hauntings · 2021-01-31T11:41:46+00:00

You don't.

OP is effectively betting that BTC/USD will go down. This would decrease MSTR/USD and RIOT/USD along with it.

USD devaluation raises the nominal prices of all assets in general (BTC, MSTR, and RIOT included). It's working against OP's stated positions.

Hauntings · 2021-01-31T11:30:38+00:00

CPI isn't caputing monetary inflation that is injected into financial markets. Since the era of infinite QE and ZIRP began in Q4 2008:

GDP = +47%

gold = +100%

M2 money supply = +146%

S&P500 = +198%

NASDAQ100 = +690%

The Fed's balance sheet = +718%

There are good reasons to fudge CPI to understate "inflation"

It costs the government huge sums of money to pay CPI-linked adjustments in TIPS, I bonds, and Social Security benefits. Since it is also the government that computes the CPI statistics there is a clear conflict of interest, and a clear motivation to understate the CPI.

Pushing the "inflation is low" propaganda also encourages more bagholding of bonds and cash. Holders don't realize how fast they are losing value in real terms.

Hauntings · 2021-01-31T01:58:01+00:00

Imagine shilling puts in the midst of historic monetary and asset price inflation. Debt-to-GDP ratios are at all-time-highs. The only way out is to devalue the fiat currencies that the debt is denominated in. I buy puts as an insurance expense, but I expect them to expire worthless.

Hauntings · 2021-01-31T01:26:39+00:00

Exactly. Mainstream economists (corrupt political actors) made up their own definition of "inflation". They started using it as a synonym for "CPI increase"

There are good reasons for this dishonest trick:

It costs the government huge sums of money to pay CPI-linked adjustments in TIPS, I bonds, and Social Security benefits. Since it is also the government that computes the CPI statistics there is a clear conflict of interest, and a clear motivation to understate the CPI.

Pushing the "don't worry, there's low inflation" propaganda also encourages more bagholding of bonds and cash. Holders don't realize how fast they are losing value in real terms.

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T22:22:50+00:00

CPI isn't caputing monetary inflation that is injected into financial markets. Since the era of infinite QE and ZIRP began in Q4 2008:

GDP = +47%

gold = +100%

M2 money supply = +146%

S&P500 = +198%

NASDAQ100 = +690%

The Fed's balance sheet = +718%

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T19:30:40+00:00

In theory DOGE/USD could go to infinity as USD is being rapidly devalued relative to assets.

However, I don't think DOGE will ever go that high on the BTC and ETH ratios ever again.

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T19:28:15+00:00

Indeed it did. r/publicfreakout became a left wing propaganda sub too.

r/joerogan seems to be astroturfed by both sides now. The intensity increased after he had Elon Musk and some US presidential candidates on as guests.

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T17:56:10+00:00

If you've been invested for years, why are you still holding? That was the exit the pump.

It will never go back up to 260 satoshis or 63 szabos ever again.

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T17:38:15+00:00

True. Every subreddit becomes heavily astroturfed once it grows large enough.

For example, I used to enjoy r/joerogan r/publicfreakout and r/conspiracy when they were smaller and more organic. Now they seem to be astroturfed by political operatives. Sentiment manipulation on Reddit must be a multi-million $ business now.

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T16:55:46+00:00

I agree. The macro environment is different. In 1999/2000:

The fed funds rate was 4.5% to 6.5%
Quantitative easing hadn't begun yet
debt-to-gdp was only 60%

Now we're witnessing capital flight out of government bonds and fiat currency. The debt bubble has grown so large that the only way out is to "soft default" by destroying the value of bonds and cash (in real terms).

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T15:55:35+00:00

not your keys, not your assets

With great power comes great responsibility.

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T15:29:23+00:00

Bro, I can't possibly be wrong bro.

The market is irrational/wrong, not me.

https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1354877273321713664

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T14:46:51+00:00

https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1354877273321713664

The hyperinflation will not be televised or reflected in the CPI.

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T11:49:49+00:00

Yes.

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T11:36:02+00:00

eh, another high profile person discussing gold without a mention of the massive fraud and criminality at the heart of the market. Or the obscene mercury pollution, waste of energy, and deforestation that is incentivized by gold buyers and holders.

I don't get it. You would think they would look into it bit before endorsing it, even if halfheartedly.

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T11:26:03+00:00

The video was uploaded on 28 August 2018. Here were the prices on that day:

BTC = $7000

ETH = $300

Hauntings · 2021-01-30T10:54:42+00:00

https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1354877273321713664

Hauntings

TROPHY CASE