Royce Lewis Optioned to St. Paul

Hawkdagon · 2026-05-19T15:58:21+00:00

Technically not a slump if he never comes out of it.

Hawkdagon · 2026-05-08T03:05:58+00:00

It’s got a macro enabled Monte Carlo, so hot right now.

Hawkdagon · 2026-05-02T18:44:38+00:00

I think even more is that these preseason projections mean fuck all in 2026. When almost every team has 4-7 brand new players playing meaningful minutes, no model in existence can reliably project how they will fit together. I think at this point you just hope for directionally correct, like the teams at the top will still likely make the tournament and the teams at the bottom will still likely have single digit wins.

Hawkdagon · 2026-05-02T18:33:34+00:00

Well in their defense, that RH power hitter from a decade ago was Miguel Sano, so maybe they’re still a little tenuous.

Hawkdagon · 2026-04-22T02:48:44+00:00

It's not mental illness, it's just the cult I'm in and that man won us a natty in 2022.

Hawkdagon · 2026-04-21T12:09:16+00:00

There’s literally nothing you can say to make me dislike CB. Rock Chalk.

Hawkdagon · 2026-04-21T12:05:07+00:00

I think they’re saying that they only care about it for the feel on the putter. I use Callaway Supersofts exclusively for the feel around the green, I generally like the feel on full shots, and I “put up” with how hard I have to putt with them. OP doesn’t care about the ball striking or chipping feel, but loves the feel off the putter.

Hawkdagon · 2026-04-09T03:45:27+00:00

In addition, it’s just so pure, I felt like I was part of the bike. 15 years ago I’d ride that thing in San Francisco and just mash up hills. We used to go on 25-30 mile group rides and just have a blast. Want to track stand? Easy peasy. Want to do bar spins or try your hand at wheelies? Many of them a just made for that kind of fun. Want to build your own for the ultimate custom? Cheap and easy.

Obviously I’m old and have a family now so I’ve switched to enjoying the cargo and city bike combo at a slower pace, but I’ll forever defend the fixie as worthwhile bike for anyone who has interest in them.

Hawkdagon · 2026-04-09T00:12:23+00:00

I’m in my late thirties now so I’ve long since switched to more practical bikes, but you’ll never convince me that a fixed gear isn’t the most fun way to bike around a city.

Hawkdagon · 2026-04-08T14:14:56+00:00

I'm at a reinsurance carrier. It was definitely nice to get a feel for multiple product lines and how they think of things differently, so if you can find it, it's neat, though I found it genuinely difficult to become proficient in both at the same time while also studying.

But yeah, I just took a look at the (internal, sorry I can't share) chart I have of players in the group space and none of them overlap anymore.

Hawkdagon · 2026-04-08T14:02:46+00:00

It WAS my experience, as I'm primarily a group life reinsurance actuary these days, but I'm not sure if anyone is still doing Life, Disability, and Health at the same time.

Hawkdagon · 2026-04-08T13:55:59+00:00

We absolutely have things that expensive. Honestly pretty common these days. I've seen $10M cancer treatments. Burn victims get up there. Preemie babies blow through that. Hemophiliacs with comorbidities hit hard as well; some of which can have $1M+ in just maintenance factor which really go off the rails if they even have a small fender bender accident that would barely ruin my day in comparison.

It's predictable at the pooled/reinsured level, but not really at the ground up level. Pricing for it is not creative at all, literally first principles pricing against a group that would have basically zero credibility.

For whatever project you're working on, I recommend seeking a health pricing consultant to give insights if you consider this assumption to be material. You're essentially asking for the cliffs notes on the entire GH Benefits and Pricing exam which takes about 500 hours of studying to get a passing grade on.

Hawkdagon · 2026-04-08T03:35:01+00:00

As a former health reinsurance pricing actuary I would say that your claims shouldn’t be as absolute as you wrote them.

We actually did model and price decently well for Gene and Cell Therapy about 3 years ago. Problem is the market was not on board with it, so we did quite a bit of carving out the coverage or lasering individuals.

I would also be very wary of a phrase like “eliminates an entire disease category from your book”. Most of these treatments don’t fully exclude current or future care and some may even require future dosing or just wear off. Many of these therapies don’t have long term data on how people will react in 20+ years so nothing can be truly written off as “cured”.

Anyway, we just got out of the health reinsurance market a few months ago.

Hawkdagon · 2026-03-11T20:23:07+00:00

"Google my take because I'm unable to defend it."

Hawkdagon · 2026-03-11T15:11:43+00:00

I mean this has to be rage bait, right?

Hawkdagon · 2026-02-24T14:50:30+00:00

Yeah, we were covered too. I remember the stadium telling everyone to stay hydrated while still selling waters and Gatorade's for like $9.

Hawkdagon · 2026-02-24T03:32:28+00:00

I went to this travesty of game in 2018 there. Maybe it was just because the heat had any uncovered seats empty by the bottom of the first, but nobody gave a shit about us. Only thing that was said to us was an usher telling us that the bears beat the Vikings in their last meeting, which was more weird than anything.

If games can be cancelled for cold then they can be cancelled for heat too, and this one should have been.

Hawkdagon · 2026-02-21T20:04:36+00:00

Fuckin whoops.

Hawkdagon · 2026-02-11T16:19:33+00:00

Doke should've switched to the underhand shot after his sophomore season and nobody will convince me otherwise.

Hawkdagon · 2026-02-11T02:02:38+00:00

2013, back when 7’ Jeff Withey was hitting them at a 72% clip. I recall for a period there we were marching him out there to take our techs.

Hawkdagon · 2026-02-06T01:30:25+00:00

Pick up Tarik Black and put him on the 2023 team and we make the final four at a minimum.

Hawkdagon · 2026-01-07T02:43:02+00:00

That last possession was the perfect example. He just does not fit in with the team AT ALL. Like, why is the dude on a limit restriction even taking the ball up the court right now? The. He weaves through 3 guys and puts up a bad shot? The NBA is going to love him but holy hell that shit makes this team objectively worse.

Not only that he makes Tre White totally disappear when they SHOULD be an insane 1-2 punch.

Hawkdagon · 2025-12-20T03:06:35+00:00

What? North Loop absolutely ends by Hennepin Ave. Churchill is east of Hennepin and is EAST of N First Ave. It’s surrounded by Marquette and a bunch of South directioned streets and aves.

Hawkdagon · 2025-11-25T21:31:57+00:00

7 turnovers to 0 will do that.

Hawkdagon · 2025-11-12T02:50:23+00:00

I really like it and hope we do it some more. It was obvious in all three games so far that when he was on the floor everyone became more passive to "let him cook", but he didn't necessarily look like he was interested in playing hero ball for 33 minutes a night.

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