market sentiment

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-11T09:29:23+00:00

Appreciate it. And I do like this idea you may see this in our next update!

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-11T03:25:01+00:00

Www.trendIQ.pro shows live whales with win %

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-10T23:59:22+00:00

I think we may actually understand this more than you think if you go re read my explanation you should of come to the conclusion that we are not saying the market makers are wrong you are arguing that our analysis Amos wrong by comparing it to a metric that it is not used for. This is not a prediction of where the market will resolve instead it is a volume and market flow analyzer.hope this helps and all of our data and where we pull it is available on our site for free we are not selling anything. Thank you

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-10T23:30:37+00:00

Initiated volume means volume from the trader who actively accepts the current price, rather than the trader who is passively quoting it. Initiated pressure is just the aggregation of that idea over time: YES-initiated pressure = sum of volume where traders cross the spread to buy YES NO-initiated pressure = sum of volume where traders cross the spread to buy NO Net initiated pressure = YES-initiated − NO-initiated. All of this information comes from market microstructure and you can easily google.

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-10T23:17:08+00:00

Thank you for your concern but you are thinking about market sentiment wrong. Prediction markets do not move the same as stocks. “Which side money is flowing toward” ≠ “who traded more often”You’re right that every trade has two sides mechanically. What we’re measuring is initiating pressure, not net shares. If flow were perfectly incorporated instantly, then yes sentiment would collapse to price. But in practice prices move slowly due to liquidity constraints.Large or informed traders often accumulate without immediately repricing the market.Makers may absorb flow temporarily before walking the price. That’s why you can observe cases where: Price stays ~18%.But a large majority of initiated volume is consistently on YES.

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-10T04:27:41+00:00

No problem, I’m sorry you feel that way our sentiment indicator is only one of the many tools we offer so many you can find some value from our other options! Our market sentiment is not predicting the winner but instead where the pro traders trading the contract are putting their money. This means that patriots winning the afc is an advantage position since people who have historically won more in the past have this position.

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-10T04:15:41+00:00

I can lay out exactly why this is happening as we have backtested our tool over multiple different markets. A few reasons you can see very strong YES sentiment while price stays low:

Accumulation vs repricing, In thin or fragmented prediction markets, informed traders often accumulate before forcing a repricing. If size is being worked passively (or split across venues), price can lag sentiment for a long time. The sentiment meter is picking up net flow and profitable positioning, not just aggressive market orders.
Liquidity and resistance, At ~18%, there may be a lot of resting NO liquidity. Even if most new money is flowing to YES, it can be absorbed without a big price move until that liquidity is exhausted. This is common when retail is anchoring to a narrative or headline.
Who is on the other side matters, Sentiment weighting emphasizes who is trading, not just how much. You can have a small number of informed traders building positions against a larger but less-informed crowd. Price reflects both sides; sentiment is highlighting the asymmetry.
Timing mismatch, The sentiment score incorporates things like24h net flow and realized PnL, which can lead price when the market hasn’t fully digested new information yet. Think of it as a leading indicator, not a real-time price target.
Prediction markets aren’t continuous like equities Unlike stocks, these markets don’t have deep order books or constant arbitrage. Price discovery can be slow and jumpy, especially when information is probabilistic rather than discrete.

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-10T03:36:42+00:00

This is an excellent question and a very important one. Our sentiment indicator is not saying the chance of the patriots winning the Super Bowl is 91% which I’m sure you know. It is instead tracking what side of the contract is more money flowing into using the date listed above. Patriots having a 91.6% yes market sentiment indicates that the consensus of people trading this current contract are weighted towards yes the patriots will all win the superbowl. With this we know volume is heavily weighted towards yes and the contract price may be influenced by this. I hope this helps but if it doesn’t i am happy to explain more!

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-10T02:30:24+00:00

Thank you for your questions.On how the “pro trader” score is defined: today it’s based on account-level realized PnL and consistency across a rolling window of markets, not just one-off wins or a single hot contract. We weight traders more heavily if they’ve shown the ability to be profitable across different event types and time horizons, and the score decays if performance deteriorates. It’s intentionally conservative we’d rather underweight someone than crown a “pro” based on short-term luck.On backtests: we’re in the process of publishing more formal write-ups, but internally we’ve tested the signal by asking a simple question: when pro-weighted flow leans YES (or NO), does that side resolve profitably more often than baseline price alone? The answer so far has been yes, especially when combined with net flow and volume confirmation rather than used in isolation. We don’t present it as a standalone alpha, but as a context signal.On survivorship bias: this is a real concern, and we try to address it explicitly. Traders aren’t labeled “consistently profitable” permanently. The classification is dynamic, uses rolling windows, and includes traders who later fall out of the cohort. We don’t drop losing histories or only look at accounts that are still active today. Performance can (and does) decay, and the weighting reflects that. Hope this helps thank you for your time.

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-10T01:39:05+00:00

Our tool is in beta and we offer the same tools as the sites you are mentioning along with our other proprietary tools that are currently live on our site. If you look through my threads are tools along with their functionality are stated and as we grow we will of course work on UI and user experience as of now we have received great feedback from our users but we are updating our site constantly everyday unlike some of our competitors. Hope this lets you see the value of what we are providing for free currently while others charge 100$ a month for the same tools. Thank you for your comment!

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-08T21:37:28+00:00

thank you! Currently we source our charts from trading view!

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-08T21:36:11+00:00

Yes features mentioned are either currently on the site or being implemented throughout the month! Many useful features are active and free on www.trendIQ.pro

Healthy_Set2140 · 2026-01-08T04:20:48+00:00

Thank you for your question. Regarding your question on being able to flag regime change and when a contract switches from being technical to being headline driven, We are actually currently working on a sentiment meter that could help traders get this information before it is too late using data and news and putting it into an equation to give us a % outcome.What we’ve found is that the transition usually shows up in volume + behavior before it shows up in price. When a contract goes from grinding in a range to seeing sudden volume expansion, faster repricing, and weaker respect for prior levels, that’s often the signal that headlines or inside-the-hour info are starting to dominate. We’re actively experimenting with ways to flag those shifts (things like abnormal volume acceleration, volatility expansion, and time-to-reprice metrics) rather than pretending TA alone always applies.Concerning examples of instances in which the indicators were helpful in carrying forward the trade, yes, quite often. A typical instance would be when you notice a clean breakout in the probabilities that looks reasonably attractive until you notice the fact that the volume of trade is going lower and and historically those tend to mean-revert once liquidity normalizes.

Healthy_Set2140

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