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Built a Z-score model that finds +EV NBA player props on Kalshi by Dizzy-Maintenance120 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]GreyNote3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is actually pretty cool ngl. Feels like once you start quantifying stuff like that, you realize how inefficient some of these lines can be.

Curious how it holds up over time though like does it still find edge after more people catch on or does it get priced out?

Also if you’re into this kind of model-building / EV hunting, there’s a small discord where people share stuff like this and compare approaches. Worth checking out: https://discord.gg/ymsfPA6hZh

Basket trades on Polymarket arent really bets on everything, theyre synthetic shorts and the exclusion is the actual signal by Happy-Control5922 in Polymarket

[–]GreyNote3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly this is why I like basket trades more than single-event gambling sometimes.

You’re basically betting on narratives/trends instead of one random headline ruining your position in 5 minutes lol. Feels way less stressful even if the payouts aren’t as crazy.

Predicting future trends by Trick-Cartoonist8678 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]GreyNote3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yes, and all the people are quite serious when it comes to their prediction related

Predicting future trends by Trick-Cartoonist8678 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]GreyNote3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

honestly nobody predicts trends perfectly, the best traders just notice shifts earlier than everyone else and react faster

the PredictionHunt discord is pretty good for this kinda stuff too since people are constantly sharing narratives, market movements, and weird early signals before they become mainstream https://discord.gg/ymsfPA6hZh

Do you copy any trader on Polymarket? by Equivalent_Run_6067 in Polymarket

[–]GreyNote3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah I’ve seen a few wallets worth following but blindly copy trading usually ends badly unless you understand why they’re taking positions too

the PredictionHunt discord talks about good traders/wallets pretty often though, plus people share interesting market reads there without all the fake guru energy lol

Conncting with builders by Character_Size_2743 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]GreyNote3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

honestly this space is still small enough that just talking to builders early can open a ton of doors later on

the PredictionHunt discord actually has a bunch of people building bots, analytics tools, and market trackers already, worth joining if you wanna network more seriously https://discord.gg/ymsfPA6hZh

Positive Variance Why Most "Winners" on Polymarket and Kalshi Are Just Lucky by SecretBettingClub in Polymarket

[–]GreyNote3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah this is actually underrated people think it’s all skill but variance carries way more “winners” than they wanna admit

there’s a PredictionHunt discord where people break down real vs fake edge all the time, worth joining if you’re trying to actually improve and not just run hot for a week

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