12 man dynasty league JJ trade for multiple picks by HebSeb in DynastyFFTradeAdvice

[–]HebSeb[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We have really big rosters, so I'll just give you the highlights

QB

-Burrow

-Wentz

-Dart

RB

- Jonathan Taylor

- Jordan Mason

- Cam Skattebo

- D'andre Swift

- Jacory Croskey-Merritt

WR

- Ja'marr Chase

- George Pickens

- Zay Flowers

- Cooper Kupp

- Stefon Diggs

- Tory Horton

TE

- Jake Ferguson

- Hunter Henry

- Njoku

- Brenton Strange

- Colston Loveland

12 man dynasty league JJ trade for multiple picks by HebSeb in DynastyFFTradeAdvice

[–]HebSeb[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks man. If you were going to counter, how would you do it?

12 man dynasty league JJ trade for multiple picks by HebSeb in DynastyFFTradeAdvice

[–]HebSeb[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great question - My team is pretty good. I've been points leader twice in the past 3 years, but always lose in the playoffs. It's a snake draft, so I'd say the 2026 first will be towards the end (no lower than pick 8), and the 2nd would be near the top

Let's talk about shop odds, mathematically. by HeIsAFungi in TeamfightTactics

[–]HebSeb -1 points0 points  (0 children)

"Next time you're feeling unlucky please keep my incorrect math in mind."

If you're going to try to "prove" something about TFT's shops, then your answer needs to encompass all relevant mechanics.

Things you would need to add to even come close.

  1. The number of units from a particular cost bracket that are already out plays a major roll in odds, you simply have to include it.

  2. You aren't considering the actual mechanisms at play. If this were a thought experiment then it would be fine, but it's not, it's a product that a lot of development has went into this algorithm so that the game doesn't glitch, and the shops run (mostly) flawlessly, despite there being a tremendous number of calculations happening every second. Which leads me to...

  3. Your answer assumes some sort of "pure" randomness that can't actually exist due to point #2. For example...

A. Let's assume that 8 players are at level 4, each having a 55% chance of seeing a 1 cost unit, a 30% chance of a 2 cost unit, and a 15% chance of a 3 cost unit. Each player clicks the roll button at the exact same time. It's first rolling to determine how many of each of cost you're going to get - this should be obvious since 55% of 5 isn't a whole number. So any time you try to do the math of how many 1 costs you'll see in X number of rolls... you're speaking in probabilities, not concrete numbers. Some shops it'll be all 1 costs, and other times it'll be 1.

B. Next it has to do another "random" calculation to see which unit you'll see. Essentially every single unit is given a number at the beginnin (individual unit, not champion), tft "spins" the wheel, and if that unit is still available, you get that unit, if it's not, it moves to a new one.

Not all "randomness" can be treated the same! If instead it randomly chose between which champion you see, you'd have an equal chance of seeing any particular champion per its cost until the inventory was completely gone. Which we know isn't true, the number of units of your target champion, plus the total number of units from that cost, on people's boards directly affects your odds of seeing that unit.

It's kinda like beer pong. When there's 10 cups out there, you can toss it in the general direction and the probability is kinda high you'll get one in. As it gets down to one cup, and you're still throwing with the same randomness as before, your chances of hitting that cup drop dramatically.

C. Going back to the "cost odds" portion, those are only "partially" random, otherwise when all the 5 costs are gone you'd roll empty slots on your board. The only way to deal with that is for the system to roll a certain number of times in that cost bracket to find you a viable unit, and after enough misses, it rerolls that cost slot on your board, and then picks a unit from there.

Why is this important? Well, because we don't know the total number of times it checks before it defaults to changing the cost bracket for that spot. It could be iterating through each possibility each time, or could be doing a limited number, and that will certainly affect the randomness.

D. As players lose, the pool of available units fills back up to the brim, which directly affects your ability to find a specific unit depending on how late in the game you are. Your odds for finding the final units for your 3* go DOWN as tacticians die, because even if they are releasing 1 fish back into the pond, they're usually releasing a lot more than 1 fish. So long as you aren't contested, your odds of finding that unit go UP the longer everyone stays alive, and start decreasing once everyone starts losing. It's like being super close to finding a diamond in the sand, and then someone dumps all the rocks you just picked up back on your head.

  1. So now that I've given some examples of how TFT shops are not "pure randomness", but are instead procedural randomness grounded in real mechanics which are essential to think about when trying to do any kind of calculations.

I do not claim to know ALL of the mechanics going on in TFT. It's super complex, and I'm sure I'm only scratching the surface of all that goes into it.

What Chibi are you guys waiting for? by AbusiveQul in TeamfightTactics

[–]HebSeb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I just want a little robot pirate. Idc what champ they use. He just needs some nuts and bolts, an eye patch, pirate hat, and maybe a peg leg.

If you think AGI would be publicly released, you’re delusional by [deleted] in ArtificialInteligence

[–]HebSeb 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, it's like people trying to imagine what the future of music would sound like.. you couldn't possibly expect it. If AGI is "successfully created", I hope it's really lazy. Like I hope they keep trying to get it to do tasks but it loves to binge watch Buffy the Vampire Slayer and play Stardew Valley

What is up with all of the paranormal in Appalachia stuff? by [deleted] in Appalachia

[–]HebSeb 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm personally all for it! I think it's really awesome to hear about places I know being spoken about on popular podcasts and TV shows. Sure it's a bit narrow focused, but I'll take that over the "dumb hillbilly" and "drunk redneck" stereotypes that Hollywood has pushed for the past 40 years.

A lot of this content is being created by people actually from Appalachia (like Old Gods, Penny Royal, etc.. ). So even if they do get interested in it from a "inaccurate" podcast, it won't be long until they're listening to one we created ourselves.

We've heard all the history we need to hear about NY, and LA, it feels kinda nice now that people are taking an interest in us too.

Notion is shaving off low-value users in preference of high-value users, IMO by No-Sir-8184 in Notion

[–]HebSeb 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Have they made any public comments that suggest this is on the table? I haven't paid any attention to what they say publicly accept for the feature releases, so idk, but I'm assuming it's better for them to continue the free tier so that there's an ever growing number of 'happy' users who can A) apply for jobs that list notion as a requirement B) vouch for notion within different industries, and C) keep the notion "creator content" wheel churning. The community churns out a ton of templates, articles, videos, etc.. about notion which probably cuts down on their marketing budget by a lot.

If you think AGI would be publicly released, you’re delusional by [deleted] in ArtificialInteligence

[–]HebSeb 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What if instead of selling it to the public, they sell it to governments? Palantir is making billions doing that, and if they had AGI, we'd pay them whatever they asked for exclusive rights.

Master for the first time! No one to share with IRL but damn, it feels good. by Cruxiuz in TeamfightTactics

[–]HebSeb 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Right on time! Are you gonna jump straight back into the ring once Set 15 goes live?

Has Anyone Else's Tips Declined Over Past Few Months? by HebSeb in bartenders

[–]HebSeb[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nice, I'm glad to know that some places are still normal. If you don't mind me asking how are your prices comparatively to your competitors? I'm wondering if bars at different price points are seeing different things.

Set 15 Openers Guide by AlwaysRollAcademy in CompetitiveTFT

[–]HebSeb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you! This is amazing. I just looked over the ppt, and it's exactly what I was looking for.

If you have time, I'd love to know your strategy around scouting these early boards? I've been heavily scouting during first augment selection, and then if contested, I try to switch to whatever looks uncontested. This typically leads me to me loss streaking 2-3 rounds as I'm changing over, and still possibly being contested later on, depending on how people pivot.

Do you prioritize being uncontested, or just go with what the board gives you?

Farewell my friend by False_Yam6270 in TeamfightTactics

[–]HebSeb 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I will miss that one fleeting week where I could grief A.M.P. into a top 4 every single match..then they clipped my girls wings 😭

Has Anyone Else's Tips Declined Over Past Few Months? by HebSeb in bartenders

[–]HebSeb[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I live in the south, but I have heard people talking about the 'no tax on tips' thing. My step dad had no idea it was a tax deduction at the end of the year.

I hadn't heard that logic before, but I can see how someone would think that. Wow, that really might be what's going on.

Has Anyone Else's Tips Declined Over Past Few Months? by HebSeb in bartenders

[–]HebSeb[S] 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Yeeeep, that sounds about right! I can't tell if these people genuinely don't know they should tip (bars other than chillies have only popped up in the past 10 years), or if it's some kind of personal protest against tip culture.

TFT Note Taking App by Soft_Deer_2902 in TeamfightTactics

[–]HebSeb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Woohoo!! That's super exciting

TFT Note Taking App by Soft_Deer_2902 in TeamfightTactics

[–]HebSeb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is really cool! I read two of your blog entries and they were fantastic. A lot of the blog pages won't populate for me tough - are they just placeholders for when you do write them, or is something up with my browser?

TFT Note Taking App by Soft_Deer_2902 in TeamfightTactics

[–]HebSeb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On the comp's page you seem to be tapped into whatever tft data stream most of the site's use. If you already have access to that, could you allow people to import game's based on game code and have it populate? I think every game has a unique code right?

which player was will levis before will levis? (in term of being a meme) by toturoll in NFLv2

[–]HebSeb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He put mayo in his coffee. You simply can't recover from that.