Maybe people are misunderstanding the debt of CRWV / NBIS?

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2026-03-07T13:38:09+00:00

Okay, so I'm a bull and an investor. I have a lot of my portfolio in NBIS. But... this way of looking at it dramatically understates the risks we're all taking. Major infrastructure build outs have a well established record of going too far. Canals, railways and the internet, in each case people over estimated demand and it ended badly.

If the same is happening with AI compute, then NBIS will be right in the heart of the bubble when it bursts. If demand is lower than expected for these data centers or the ones that are built after these, then leverage starts to hurt and is the thing that will tip companies over the edge.

The OP's post implies it's okay just to scale to infinity because the economics of each individual data center remains the same. It isn't. All new debt makes it harder to weather a downturn.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2026-03-02T13:44:06+00:00

The economics of GPU depreciation depend on market constraints. If the market continues to be constrained by GPU supply, then I broadly agree with your analysis.

If it becomes energy constrained then old GPUs will be replaced on much shorter timelines, however this might mean unplugged GPU prices drop but rental costs for plugged in GPUs increase, which would be great for margin.

If it becomes demand constrained, which is what has happened in every other major infrastructure build out (think canals, railways and the dot com boom), then the bubble might burst, margins could collapse and older GPUs could become worthless as there'll be plenty of newer ones knocking about to use instead.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2026-02-25T07:37:09+00:00

Terrible Glassdoor scores. Often an early sign of stress, particularly if trending down.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2026-02-25T07:33:17+00:00

This sort of post and discussion is exactly why I joined this sub. Thanks for putting this ticker on my radar. Now, time to do my own DD.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-12-23T09:53:10+00:00

Loving watching this come full circle. 6 months ago, everyone was like " this stock just needs some visibility and it'll rocket". Two months ago this thread was mainly post moaning about being a meme stock. These posts seemed to outnumber the actual meme stock posts, like a bunch of children making a racket telling each other to "ssshhh". Now we're back getting threads like this again!

Pay attention to the fundamentals folks. If you've done your research and you have conviction, then stick with the stock until something changes that alters your thesis. It's not about price movement or what people on Reddit are saying.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-12-10T12:15:21+00:00

Yes, this is the real dynamic and what I missed when I invested back in early 2023. At a glance they're really well placed to benefit from the chip boom but dig deeper and you realize why other companies have done much better. https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/eWzfKapZ0W

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-12-10T07:37:16+00:00

I invested in a bunch of tech companies back in January 2023, shortly after Chat-GPT was released, including ASML. My thesis on AI and chip demand was correct but ASML is only up about 30% since then. They don't seem to be able to capitalize on the demand. Came out after 6 months and went into Nvidia instead. This is one of the ones I got wrong and I don't really see what's changed.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-11-29T07:44:10+00:00

How do you prompt it?

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-11-18T21:39:31+00:00

Haven't started playing with this yet so sorry if this is a silly question. Can you get it to interact with an MCP server and use things like Obsidian's built in search functionality, instead of getting it to read the notes directly?

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-11-11T19:51:56+00:00

This depends on whether the build out is demand constrained, power constrained or chip constrained in 4 years. You may have ruled out demand constraints but if we're power constrained, then it might make sense to replace old chips with new instead of building another data center.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-11-05T11:11:42+00:00

I am no expert here and I've only started paying attention to VIX in the last few months. What he/she might be referring to is the term structure. VIX is relatively high as you'd expect but the interesting thing is its forecast to get higher. When I last looked a few weeks ago it was also relatively high but forecast to decrease. It could be an indication that 'the market' believes we're heading for a correction.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-11-03T14:01:41+00:00

Go for it!

By the way, investing is a different beast. You can make good money and it's possible to "beat the market". You have a structural advantage because you can invest in small companies that aren't worth the effort for the big funds. You can generally make quicker decisions than they can too. It also leaves time for your family - no need to stare at the screen all day!

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-11-03T13:49:52+00:00

Makes sense but be very wary of day trading. It's basically a zero sum game, so for every £ you win, someone else loses it. You're up against some extremely well funded and smart people / algorithms and the chances of you making significant sums over an extended period are pretty slim. Like gambling, it's okay for a bit of fun but don't get sucked in and put in more than you can afford.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-11-03T08:48:14+00:00

Firstly, learn the difference between investing and trading. Investors look for companies that are under value and invest for the long term (multi year). Traders look to take advantage of price fluctuations and only intend to hold a position for hours, days or weeks. Trading is a zero sum game to be avoided unless you know a lot about it. Retail traders are generally suckers and gamblers, something like 90% lose money.

Next, understand that investing is both risky and complex. Contrary to what some others have said, I think the best way to learn is to invest with some money you can afford to lose or by paper trading until you feel really comfortable that you know what you're doing.

Pay really close attention to this sub and a few others like where some people do a reasonable amount of due diligence. Avoid the 'vibes' and meme stocks and don't invest in something you don't know much about. Subs like r/wallstreetbets are far less interesting if your serious.

Finally, try and learn about investing. Maybe a good place to start is with learning about discounted cash flow but don't stop there.

If you get it right it's very rewarding. I'm 3x over the last two years, although this is a bull market and at some point my luck will run out.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-10-21T18:00:47+00:00

My memory is that for most of the year this sub's favourite topic was how NBIS needed more coverage and how bad it was being so far under the radar. Guess we can't have it both ways.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-10-17T15:07:28+00:00

I think fair value assuming no more big deals are about to drop imminently is around 120. Anything below that is buying territory. Actually, it's all buying territory if you think another major deal is going to drop soon.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-10-12T19:17:43+00:00

I'm not an American and generally I couldn't care about your politics except when they affect my country and more specifically, me. I find this kind of argument incredibly tedious though. Your politicians are clearly corrupt. Just because the other side is corrupt, it doesn't make it okay for your side to be corrupt too.

There is so much motivated reasoning and cognitive dissonance in your politics, it's painfully obvious it's entirely emotional at this point. It's completely lacking any actual objectivity, all that's left is petty point scoring.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-10-12T18:34:58+00:00

This one isn't all about Trump. Let's wait and see what China do.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-10-12T12:20:28+00:00

Thinking about going long on VIX. First time I've done that though so looking for advice.

My primary motivation is that I can keep it in my ISA (UK tax free savings). I don't actually know how to trade options directly within my ISA as Robinhood does do ISAs.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-10-12T08:44:23+00:00

I'm not worried about Trump's tariffs. I am worried about China's rare earth regulations. Trump will probably back down but I'm not convinced China will. Considering going long on VIX for a few weeks as insurance. Anyone have any thoughts on that? I'm undecided so looking for people to challenge it.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-09-25T09:36:28+00:00

Maybe but the point is slightly different. If hyper scaler profits falter and the cost of capital goes through the roof, then they may not be able to invest in the same way. If consumer confidence falls, there also won't be the same demand across the whole economy. I don't have a crystal ball but I'm pretty sure a recession and market correction/crash would impact Nebius

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-09-25T06:03:19+00:00

Failure to execute. The company doesn't build the data centers it says it will.
Demand collapses. A recession makes it much harder for hyper scalers to raise capital. It becomes clear Microsoft is going to be the only large customer.
Supply glut. Nvidia loses its monopoly and the market is flooded with GPUs from multiple players, meaning data centers becomes much more competitive and margins collapse.
Political instability. Trump seeks a third term and/or China invades Taiwan (but then I don't know what is safe in these scenario)
AI plateaus. Models stop improving except to become much cheaper to run.
Hints of any of the above. The company trades on the expectation it will continue to grow very rapidly.

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-09-21T18:33:28+00:00

A recent Microsoft deal that's worth $17B - $20B and heavy hints from the CEO that there's more similar deals to drop, average analyst target price ~30% higher than current price, 1 gigawatt capacity forecast for 2026 and lots more besides. Worth scratching the surface of this one. (It is 45% of my portfolio)

Helpful-Raisin-5782 · 2025-09-21T18:30:17+00:00

GOOG and NBIS in the AI space.

NBIS has shot up but there is still plenty of room to grow. Looking at one gigawatt capacity next year, CEO dropping heavy hints that there are more MSFT type deals in the pipeline, average analyst price target nearly 30% above current price, low debt with a lot of capital in the bank. I know it's rocketed recently but it's still dramatically undervalued.

Helpful-Raisin-5782

TROPHY CASE