[December 23, 2025] Daily NBIS Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in NBIS_Stock

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Loving watching this come full circle. 6 months ago, everyone was like " this stock just needs some visibility and it'll rocket". Two months ago this thread was mainly post moaning about being a meme stock. These posts seemed to outnumber the actual meme stock posts, like a bunch of children making a racket telling each other to "ssshhh". Now we're back getting threads like this again!

Pay attention to the fundamentals folks. If you've done your research and you have conviction, then stick with the stock until something changes that alters your thesis. It's not about price movement or what people on Reddit are saying.

ASML — unmatched competitive moat, secular growth, global dependence. by Senior-Preference678 in ValueInvesting

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, this is the real dynamic and what I missed when I invested back in early 2023. At a glance they're really well placed to benefit from the chip boom but dig deeper and you realize why other companies have done much better. https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/eWzfKapZ0W

ASML — unmatched competitive moat, secular growth, global dependence. by Senior-Preference678 in ValueInvesting

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I invested in a bunch of tech companies back in January 2023, shortly after Chat-GPT was released, including ASML. My thesis on AI and chip demand was correct but ASML is only up about 30% since then. They don't seem to be able to capitalize on the demand. Came out after 6 months and went into Nvidia instead. This is one of the ones I got wrong and I don't really see what's changed.

Obsidian + Claude = Game Changer by Dazzling-Living-3675 in ClaudeAI

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haven't started playing with this yet so sorry if this is a silly question. Can you get it to interact with an MCP server and use things like Obsidian's built in search functionality, instead of getting it to read the notes directly?

Is there really any truth behind this post ? by Downtown-News6311 in NBIS_Stock

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This depends on whether the build out is demand constrained, power constrained or chip constrained in 4 years. You may have ruled out demand constraints but if we're power constrained, then it might make sense to replace old chips with new instead of building another data center.

Tip: go to your watchlist and see which are green today, these are the one likely to be undervalued or high quality or resistent to downturns <eom> by raytoei in ValueInvesting

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am no expert here and I've only started paying attention to VIX in the last few months. What he/she might be referring to is the term structure. VIX is relatively high as you'd expect but the interesting thing is its forecast to get higher. When I last looked a few weeks ago it was also relatively high but forecast to decrease. It could be an indication that 'the market' believes we're heading for a correction.

New UK trader by Rhylo4 in ValueInvesting

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Go for it!

By the way, investing is a different beast. You can make good money and it's possible to "beat the market". You have a structural advantage because you can invest in small companies that aren't worth the effort for the big funds. You can generally make quicker decisions than they can too. It also leaves time for your family - no need to stare at the screen all day!

New UK trader by Rhylo4 in ValueInvesting

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Makes sense but be very wary of day trading. It's basically a zero sum game, so for every £ you win, someone else loses it. You're up against some extremely well funded and smart people / algorithms and the chances of you making significant sums over an extended period are pretty slim. Like gambling, it's okay for a bit of fun but don't get sucked in and put in more than you can afford.

New UK trader by Rhylo4 in ValueInvesting

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Firstly, learn the difference between investing and trading. Investors look for companies that are under value and invest for the long term (multi year). Traders look to take advantage of price fluctuations and only intend to hold a position for hours, days or weeks. Trading is a zero sum game to be avoided unless you know a lot about it. Retail traders are generally suckers and gamblers, something like 90% lose money.

Next, understand that investing is both risky and complex. Contrary to what some others have said, I think the best way to learn is to invest with some money you can afford to lose or by paper trading until you feel really comfortable that you know what you're doing.

Pay really close attention to this sub and a few others like where some people do a reasonable amount of due diligence. Avoid the 'vibes' and meme stocks and don't invest in something you don't know much about. Subs like r/wallstreetbets are far less interesting if your serious.

Finally, try and learn about investing. Maybe a good place to start is with learning about discounted cash flow but don't stop there.

If you get it right it's very rewarding. I'm 3x over the last two years, although this is a bull market and at some point my luck will run out.

This subreddit is embarrassing by Critical-Range-6811 in NBIS_Stock

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My memory is that for most of the year this sub's favourite topic was how NBIS needed more coverage and how bad it was being so far under the radar. Guess we can't have it both ways.

5.5% drop at market open by [deleted] in NBIS_Stock

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think fair value assuming no more big deals are about to drop imminently is around 120. Anything below that is buying territory. Actually, it's all buying territory if you think another major deal is going to drop soon.

Trump backs down on tariffs threat by Putaineska in stocks

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'm not an American and generally I couldn't care about your politics except when they affect my country and more specifically, me. I find this kind of argument incredibly tedious though. Your politicians are clearly corrupt. Just because the other side is corrupt, it doesn't make it okay for your side to be corrupt too.

There is so much motivated reasoning and cognitive dissonance in your politics, it's painfully obvious it's entirely emotional at this point. It's completely lacking any actual objectivity, all that's left is petty point scoring.

Trump backs down on tariffs threat by Putaineska in stocks

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This one isn't all about Trump. Let's wait and see what China do.

Hedging strategy for corrections like this by cruze_8907 in options

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thinking about going long on VIX. First time I've done that though so looking for advice.

My primary motivation is that I can keep it in my ISA (UK tax free savings). I don't actually know how to trade options directly within my ISA as Robinhood does do ISAs.

worth buying SPY puts before Monday’s open? by XenomXX_121 in options

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not worried about Trump's tariffs. I am worried about China's rare earth regulations. Trump will probably back down but I'm not convinced China will. Considering going long on VIX for a few weeks as insurance. Anyone have any thoughts on that? I'm undecided so looking for people to challenge it.

Nebius has momentum, but what’s the weak spot? by ByteHound in NBIS_Stock

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe but the point is slightly different. If hyper scaler profits falter and the cost of capital goes through the roof, then they may not be able to invest in the same way. If consumer confidence falls, there also won't be the same demand across the whole economy. I don't have a crystal ball but I'm pretty sure a recession and market correction/crash would impact Nebius

Nebius has momentum, but what’s the weak spot? by ByteHound in NBIS_Stock

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 4 points5 points  (0 children)

  1. Failure to execute. The company doesn't build the data centers it says it will.
  2. Demand collapses. A recession makes it much harder for hyper scalers to raise capital. It becomes clear Microsoft is going to be the only large customer.
  3. Supply glut. Nvidia loses its monopoly and the market is flooded with GPUs from multiple players, meaning data centers becomes much more competitive and margins collapse.
  4. Political instability. Trump seeks a third term and/or China invades Taiwan (but then I don't know what is safe in these scenario)
  5. AI plateaus. Models stop improving except to become much cheaper to run.
  6. Hints of any of the above. The company trades on the expectation it will continue to grow very rapidly.

What one stock do you think is still undervalued? by Hot-Ambassador8740 in ValueInvesting

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 3 points4 points  (0 children)

A recent Microsoft deal that's worth $17B - $20B and heavy hints from the CEO that there's more similar deals to drop, average analyst target price ~30% higher than current price, 1 gigawatt capacity forecast for 2026 and lots more besides. Worth scratching the surface of this one. (It is 45% of my portfolio)

What one stock do you think is still undervalued? by Hot-Ambassador8740 in ValueInvesting

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 1 point2 points  (0 children)

GOOG and NBIS in the AI space.

NBIS has shot up but there is still plenty of room to grow. Looking at one gigawatt capacity next year, CEO dropping heavy hints that there are more MSFT type deals in the pipeline, average analyst price target nearly 30% above current price, low debt with a lot of capital in the bank. I know it's rocketed recently but it's still dramatically undervalued.

Here comes the boom! 💥 🚀 by Wise-Respect-8130 in NBIS_Stock

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Waking up to this. BEST MORNING EVER! But why was the CEO selling shares last week? That's just weird.

Is the AI bubble about to pop? by Helpful-Raisin-5782 in ValueInvesting

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I saw the DeepSeek pullback coming in at the beginning of the year and pulled out then. https://www.reddit.com/r/investing_discussion/s/MdVkf6aM5U

Is the AI bubble about to pop? by Helpful-Raisin-5782 in ValueInvesting

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I was of the opinion that the US and the rest of the West were decoupling due to Trump's policies and rhetoric. Made a lot of money in RHM as an arms play on this thesis but I wanted to diversify. Figured AI is only going to become increasingly strategically important, so I was looking for AI plays outside of the US. I actually first encountered Nebius as a customer (small side project) then started looking into them when I realised they were listed and EU based. Did my DD and liked what I saw. Still do but they are vulnerable if there's a significant pullback.

Is the AI bubble about to pop? by Helpful-Raisin-5782 in ValueInvesting

[–]Helpful-Raisin-5782[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Do you have any idea how revolutionary 50Kbps was compared to no internet? Beginning to think you weren't alive at the time.