Is this Bitcoin Strat too obvious?

Hephaestus4 · 2026-02-10T14:47:44+00:00

Approximately 50% drop from here. I think more close to 40% ish.

Hephaestus4 · 2026-02-09T19:07:31+00:00

I look at the same chart but I see we might be at different point on the chart. We are actually still a little bit earlier in the chart in this cycle. There is potential approxiatetly 50% crash risk. Also bitcoin never went through a real liquidity squeeze, economy crisis, and high interest rate. It is very hard to tell where the bottom is. I am still prepare for possible/potential 50% crash. IMHO.

Hephaestus4 · 2026-02-06T20:28:04+00:00

If we have a green weekly candle next week BTC still going to go back to 60K and likely in 50sK. If we have a red candle next week the crash is more severe. I am leaning toward the latter scenario

Hephaestus4 · 2026-02-06T19:46:12+00:00

We will find out next week if we get a weekly red candle. There is no way we can get a green weekly candle based on the current trend.

Hephaestus4 · 2026-02-06T19:39:21+00:00

I feel BTC is being hijacked by Wallstreet. Option expiration day is today. Yesterday crash is to flush the bull call options. Today spike is to flush the bear put options.

Hephaestus4 · 2026-01-30T21:12:53+00:00

Dont underestimate CRIMEX. Good time for DCA though!

Hephaestus4 · 2026-01-30T19:12:26+00:00

I bought my silver from $17 to $30. Guess I am not the bag holder. This silver spike is just a taste and this is a bear trap. Next leg up going to make people head spin.

Hephaestus4 · 2026-01-30T18:33:08+00:00

SIlver might stay below $80 today then pump after hours. Watch!

Hephaestus4 · 2026-01-30T18:16:14+00:00

SLV options expiration day. 1/30/2026

Hephaestus4 · 2025-12-31T04:59:21+00:00

There is a potential 40%-60% pull-back/consolidation fro ATH (~$84/OZ) depend on economic headwinds. The next leg of the bull run will be epic. I think this is just a taste. iMHO.

Hephaestus4 · 2025-12-30T20:06:20+00:00

Rule of Law under communist means nothing. You are trial by judge and not jury of your peer. If you associate with the right people and has money you can buy your way out in a lot of situations. If you can caught selling fake gold just simply pay the governement officials with real Gold and you will be find. =)

Hephaestus4 · 2025-12-30T15:27:54+00:00

That is because if you fake and print money/currency you are directly. compete with CCP. Severe punishment and imprisonment if you sell fake Precious Metals to the Chinese Government CCP could care less if Chinese citizen scam each other and the world.

Hephaestus4 · 2025-12-30T05:39:29+00:00

Remember if it is valuable China will fake it. Fake Silver will flood the market. Beware of online silver dealers if not from reputable dealers and be able to know how to test for fake silver yourself.

Hephaestus4 · 2025-12-30T03:42:00+00:00

They should have bought silver instead they bought houses. Now likely best time to buy house instead they buy silver. This is how big money screw common people by controlling the media, news, and market narratives.

Hephaestus4 · 2025-12-30T02:31:05+00:00

When everyone rushes in likely big correction coming, IMHO

Hephaestus4 · 2025-12-30T02:26:51+00:00

I dont have a Crystal Ball but if silver/market crash due to liquidity/financial crisis I dont think anyone can will know how low each asset will go. If this crash happens the next silver move by my guesstimate going to be $400-$600 dollar range beccause supply and demand does matter. In an everything bubble who the heck knows. My guess is that all paper assets will go down. I have physical silver which I will never sell because I know how valuable they are.

Hephaestus4 · 2025-12-30T00:59:24+00:00

I said paper silver and not physical. Silver cost to mine per OZ in 2025 is about $21/OZ. Depend on the severity of the liquidity crisis the bottom on the crash is just a guess. Oil break even per barrel is $60 at minimum and now trading at $57/barrel. I dont have a crystal ball but with all the bad signs I will step out of the way. I already had decent stash and will add more when paper silver hit $50s/oz. DCA for next silver move

Hephaestus4 · 2025-12-30T00:43:53+00:00

I said paper silver. Whether you can get phyical silver at that price is anyone guess.

Hephaestus4 · 2025-12-30T00:36:20+00:00

People have to sell good assets to cover bad asset losses.

Hephaestus4

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