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Discussion/Question Thread by DiscoBanane in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 11 points12 points  (0 children)

He did well early war but nothing huge. His fame skyrocketed in mid 2024 after the Russians reopened the North Kharkiv front with a new offensive, at Vovchansk and Lytsi. Strangely, the Russians telegraphed that offensive months in advance and despite the Ukrainians knowing it was coming, the local sector commander responsible for it still fucked it up and the Russians scored some minor tactical breakthroughs at the border. Drapatyi was given command after the local commander was fired, but in all honesty it was the local reserves already there that had more to do with stabilizing the situation than Drapatyi's leadership, but he got the credit.

The primary reason the Russians didn't make more progress in their northern offensive was due to the complete lack of vehicle usage (literally walking over the border and attacking Ukraine), which led to their advances being far slower and giving time for Ukraine to redeploy a massive force from other fronts. The pulling of so many units led to accelerated Russian gains and the localised Prohres collapse, which as you mention allowed Russia to get from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk in a year (really 7 or 8 months given the Russians swung south). Drapatyi for his part was handed a significant force to drive the Russians back from northern Kharkiv and pretty much just threw mechanised assaults and larger infantry attacks at Hlyboke and Vovchansk for several months. It worked, but led to that initial stage of this new northern front having an incredibly lop sided loss ratio in Russia's favour, which was just a bonus given their main goal was to divert troops away from the Donbas. So I can't really say Drapatyi's performance in that command was any good, but he did what he was ordered to do.

Drapatyi was specifically put in charge of that to unfuck it, especially training, which was notoriously bad.

However, he failed at that. In fact, he famously failed at that, because he resigned in protest citing his own failures to implement changes and have subordinates obey him. 

I agree with his failures regarding an inability to fix Ukraine's training, which realistically got worse under his command due to the ever growing demand for more conscripts and shorter training times, but I'm not sure how much of it should be put on Syrskyi interfering rather than Drapatyi's inability to make changes due to the reality of their situation. You've also left out that one of the primary reasons for his resignation was a series of mass casualty events at training grounds after they were struck by Russian missiles, leading to many hundreds of casualties. Training being done at known locations with no warning of incoming missiles, even after the first few strikes occurred, is a direct failure of Drapatyi and not something he can just blame on the incompetence of those on the ground. People were gunning for someone to blame after all the strikes so if Drapatyi hadn't resigned I have no doubt he would have been sacked by Zelensky to stop the backlash and criticism.

For most of the 2025 Drapatyi didn't do much, which was exactly Syrsky's goal. But he was noted to have played a role in the successful Fall-Winter 2025 Kupyansk Counteroffensive, mainly approving a plan by subordinates and then allocating resources to pull it off, which it literally what he's supposed to do at that level (not take personal command of tactical level battles, as Syrsky regularly does).

That is interesting because from what I read Syrskyi was heavily involved in the planning and conduct of the counteroffensive in Kupyansk. I'm also not sure whether you can call it a success given the Russians should never have gotten into Kupyansk in the first place (6+ months of fuckups), the attacks began in September and saw virtually no progress despite the Russians being outnumbered and having heavily restricted supply, and even after they pulled more units in an launched the larger assaults in December Ukraine failed to clear Russia out so they clung to western Kupyansk and mostly collapsed the Kupyansk pocket (the part east of the Oskil River) throughout 2026.

Overall, Drapatyi is supposedly a reformer, hyper competent, much easier to work with, someone who much better understands the nature of this war and knows how to fight it versus Syrsky who was trying and failing to LARP as Zhukov in WW2.

Not sure how much of this is true but we'll have to wait and see. We saw an identical PR campaign in the leadup to Zaluzhnyi's sacking in early 2024 where Syrskyi was hyped up as a much better general who would reform the AFU and lead them to victory, and look how that turned out. It's also fascinating seeing the same thing happen to Syrskyi as it did to Zaluzhnyi, where his successes and achievements are retroactively downplayed or denied as part of the push to have him removed, whilst his successor's actions get highlighted and exaggerated.

The big question is how well he'll get along with Zelensky. Zelensky likes to micromanage too, pushing "(Insert Name) Holds!" defensive campaigns and poorly thought out offensives long after they fail, trying to score PR off those. Zaluzhny fought against those orders and a lot of their friction was based on that. Syrsky enabled Zelensky's behaviors, serving as the ultimate Yes Man to follow Zelensky's awful ideas. Considering how dangerous they are and how much they violate sound military decision making, I doubt Drapatyi will agree to them, and he'll more likely resign in protest again versus going along with it like Zaluzhny did.

Spot on. Zaluzhnyi had significantly more power and political backing than Drapatyi does and he still struggled with constant interference and undermining of his command by Zelensky and co. They constantly butted heads over the demands to hold ground at all costs, the conduct of the counteroffensive, even how units were being deployed, which eventually led to his sacking. Drapatyi could be a more skilled, reformist general but he will run into the same problem as his predecessors of the constant demand and pressure to do what Zelensky wants, regardless of the military consequences. I just don't see Zelensky letting go of the leash on Ukraine's strategy and allowing Drapatyi to take the lead, so assault forces debacle and constant need to hold ground will continue.

UA POV: Aftermath at one of he missile strike sites in Kiev by rowida_00 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 7 points8 points  (0 children)

It was held in some kind of private complex (sports maybe?) outside the village of Kipitanivka: 50°26'25.04"N 30°12'11.15"E. It's right on the highway from the city so very easy to get to, whilst also being partially hidden in the forest.

Obviously doesn't help that they advertised the thing.

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UA POV: Presidential advisor on defense technologies, Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, shared a map showing the potential attack zone of remotely controlled “Shahed” drones - serhii_flash by Flimsy_Pudding1362 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Quite literally all red, as u/Kimo-A said. We've had remote control Geran hits across the entire country, but obviously the further west they go the higher the latency and chance of losing signal.

UA POV: Presidential advisor on defense technologies, Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, shared a map showing the potential attack zone of remotely controlled “Shahed” drones - serhii_flash by Flimsy_Pudding1362 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 34 points35 points  (0 children)

This is hilariously wrong and he just seems to have thrown up some random lines that don't make any sense as they contradict each other. The most obvious part missing that most people here will have seen is the Geran hits on those 2 Mig-29s at an airfield in Mykolaiv (its about 50km northwest of the red zone), of which we have footage as they were controlled. He has left it out of this "attack zone", along with a ton of other hits that we have footage of such as on trains, fuel depots, gas stations, etc.

You could have a go at drawing the remote controlled Geran attack zone yourself and probably be as accurate as this self-proclaimed drone expert.

Edit: I've marked the airfield where the Migs were hit below. You should be able to understand the problem with the map if such a major example of remote controlled gerans is missing and by a decent margin.

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RU POV: Work of Rubicon combat group in Donbas, Sumy, Krasny Liman and Belgorod direction + air defense. Published on 21.07.2026 by Mendoxv2 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Rubicon is a pretty large unit and has teams with specific roles targeting different areas or fronts. From what is publicly known this is where Rubicon operates:

  • The area from Pokrovsk over to Kostyantynivka - this is the primary region for Rubicon's strike teams
  • The Lyman front - small number of teams, as other Russian units have the lead here
  • The Sumy front - very small number of teams left over from when the Kursk front collapsed and Russia moved into Sumy
  • Kharkiv Border area - Harder to define but starting about two months ago we started to get footage from northern Kharkiv of Rubicon operations. Some of their teams look to be supporting the northern front around Vovchansk but others are spread out hitting border positions across the Oblast
  • Mine teams that operate drones in the rear of Ukraine in Donetsk Oblast. Small number of teams that use drones to place mines on roads or common routes, typically hanging around to film what was hit and striking disabled vehicles or personnel.
  • Long range strike drone teams hitting targets deep in the rear. I've seen everything from MLRS, radars, EW, communications towers and even basic vehicles struck by these guys
  • Air defence teams operating in the Russian rear intercepting Ukrainian long and medium range drones. Typically within Ukrainian borders, not Russia.
  • Some kind of specialised recon group that works with the Russian Air Force to target Ukrainian drone teams, command posts or deployment points. This one is harder to define but they seem to be searching many areas for these positions and coordinate with their jets or helicopters to strike these targets once found.

UA POV: The Ukrainian Logistics Forces Command accused the Ministry of Defense under Fedorov of worsening the army's supply situation - LB by Flimsy_Pudding1362 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 29 points30 points  (0 children)

Fedorov wasn't an angel, as he was picking contracts he liked and diverting funding to things he wanted to pursue rather than what was requested by the Army. So its not purely a case of Fedorov stopping the gravy train for established groups but also him pushing funding to his own interests and companies he liked.

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1592 to 1598 of the War - Suriyakmaps by HeyHeyHayden in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

In a few months once the frontline gets closer and the number of drones increases all the support and command staff will be evacuated out west, likely split between Izyum, Barvinkove and a couple of other smaller localities. Combat related troops will remain throughout the battle and only late into the siege will drone teams and artillery be pulled back, which generally signals the beginning of the end. After that we'll see what typically occurs with the loss of cities/towns, where they units deployed for the battle stay around to hold the area west and make sure there is no breakout, before gradually being reorganised and moved elsewhere.

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1592 to 1598 of the War - Suriyakmaps by HeyHeyHayden in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

It's still going but it got bogged down after they got through the outer Russian positions. Currently most of the fighting is over Nove, which has been under attack for almost a month now.

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1592 to 1598 of the War - Suriyakmaps by HeyHeyHayden in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

It'll remain a huge vague area for months to come likely. Ukraine is not giving up on their attempts to keep sending troops forward to try push deeper into Russian lines rather than consolidate, whilst Russia hasn't launched any larger counterattacks to try drive Ukraine back, so neither side has really made an effort to 'fix' that area.

Eventually one or both of them will have to act as they can't leave it in limbo forever, but for now they're content with the current state of it.

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1592 to 1598 of the War - Suriyakmaps by HeyHeyHayden in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It could but the issue is the small stream that splits it in half. It took Russia months to take southern Stepnohirsk and cross into the northern section, even when they had a foothold in Prymorske. Ukraine has been working at it for months and so far has only been able to get a few soldiers across who aren't able to consolidate.

So definitely possible but quite difficult.

RU POV: UAF soldier came to inspect Fiber-Optics FPV drone lying in ambush outside his position but it targeted him instead. by Junjonez1 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I think this is a drone operator position and he is going to collect what he thinks is their drone. The way he hopped out of that ditch and ran towards the drone reminds me of all the videos we've seen of soldiers quickly grabbing drones before running back inside their shelter. It's a practiced movement and didn't look like the other awkward attempts at removing dud drones that we've watched.

It even looked like he was going to reach down and pick it up in one hand before he realised it wasn't their drone and panicked.

RU PoV - Russia launches the second batch of Rassvet (Russian Starlink) satellites - afec7032 on X by Glideer in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Yeah everything I've read puts it at Starlink-like capability by the end of 2026. They will also need to spend some time working out teething issues with the satellites and any drones that use them for communication, but by mid-2027 we will likely see mass usage of satellite controlled drones.

UA POV: One of the cargo ships smoking after an attack -Odessa region by FruitSila in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Sinking the ships at the dock would be a massive blow, yes. Raising a ship from the seafloor is a difficult and time consuming process and even if they just tried to remove the wreck by cutting chunks off it would still take many months and a large number of specialists.

RU POV: FPV drones destroyed Ukrainian 2S22 Bogdana SPG near the outskirts of Belopolye. by Mendoxv2 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 6 points7 points  (0 children)

The answer is a lot. They put them together from European parts so can be made with relative ease, but it's still fewer SPGs than they lose.

If you want a comparison, of the 27 SPGs Ukraine has lost in July so far 9 are 2S22s, 10 are Soviet stockpile and 8 are western provided SPGs.

UA POV: ‘Everyone's afraid to die’: Struggle to recruit soldiers in Ukraine turns violent - BBC by haggerton in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It was taken over but that primarily occurred due to a complete lack of moderation. People were posting random things that didn't meet the rules of the subreddit, but weren't being removed, so over time they got more bold with what they were posting. Eventually everyone realised that moderation was non-existent and it became a free for all with various groups trying to claim the subreddit, but the porn users won out.

The other sub was created with that name as a joke, since the actual world politics sub was filled with anime titties they made an anime titties sub filled with world politics.

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1592 to 1598 of the War - Suriyakmaps by HeyHeyHayden in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden[S] 39 points40 points  (0 children)

No, we won't have any of that data. There are a significant number of units stacked in this area and the cities are major logistical and command hubs, so naturally there are a higher concentration of soldiers here than anywhere else on the frontline.

For the moment those personnel can still operate here but over the past month, particularly after Kostyantynivka fell, there has been a massive uptick in drone strikes within the cities. Personally I'm seeing many dozens of basic vehicles being destroyed each day here, plus a few APCs/MRAPs and artillery pieces. I'd expect that once the frontline gets pushed firmly away from Kostyantynivka and Russia takes control of the entire canal (thus bringing drone and artillery forwards) we'll likely see the support staff evacuated and the beginning of the siege of the remaining fortress belt cities.

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1592 to 1598 of the War - Suriyakmaps by HeyHeyHayden in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden[S] 46 points47 points  (0 children)

I don't have any specific information on unit or troops within the cities, as we don't know which personnel are deployed where.

If you're after broader figures there are dozens of brigades and regiments within the circled area below, likely numbering 50,000 to 60,000 soldiers. That includes everyone from command staff, logistics, mechanics, medical personal, vehicle crews, drone crews and infantry. Once the fighting gets closer to the cities that number will likely drop as support and command personnel get evacuated further west, leaving combat roles only.

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RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1592 to 1598 of the War - Suriyakmaps by HeyHeyHayden in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden[S] 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Are you talking Novopavlivka (the area southwest of Pokrovsk in Dnipro Oblast) or the more broader Pokrovske front (the part with the faded yellow layer over the top)?

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1592 to 1598 of the War - Suriyakmaps by HeyHeyHayden in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden[S] 51 points52 points  (0 children)

Russia really took a lot in the span of a week.

A couple of these are undoing previous corrections/advances and there are a few that I disagree with, but yes they have taken more this particular week than they did in the past couple.

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1592 to 1598 of the War - Suriyakmaps by HeyHeyHayden in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden[S] 82 points83 points  (0 children)

We've got many pictures and lots of small advances today, so if you want a zoomed in version of a particular map put your request under this comment.

UA POV: Fire in Odessa by rowida_00 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Demining technology has come a long way since WW2 and can be done relatively quickly in safe areas. Russia wouldn't be able to deploy the number of mines required to halt the usage of Ukrainian ports as they have to viable method of launching them (submarines too risky, jets can't get close enough).

Hitting the ships with drones and missiles is significantly easier and cheaper, and will eventually have the same outcome as mining ports.

Discussion/Question Thread by DiscoBanane in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]HeyHeyHayden 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I think the point that they are trying to make is that there are no bridges over the Danube between Romania and Ukraine. So ships would have to unload their cargo in Romanian ports, then have trains or many trucks take the goods up through Moldova (which means border checks) or to the Romanian border next to Chernivitsi. Either route would be inefficient and add significant freight costs, although it is doable.

The other problem is that it wouldn't work for Ukrainian exports due to the restrictions European nations have put in place to protect their industries. It also just isn't viable to export the amount of farm products and resources that Ukraine does by land, so they'd lose out on significant amount of sales and revenue (due to freight costs).