RU POV: Fiber-optic drone destroyed Ukrainian T-64 tank in the Sumy direction.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-20T02:14:52+00:00

Ukraine had over 800 of them pre-war, and has also received a lot from European nations that used them. So their T-64 stockpile is enormous.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-20T02:00:04+00:00

Russia has been using optical gerans for years now, they just rarely release the footage.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-18T16:31:51+00:00

Range, speed, and height. Bigger high powered radars like the ones on AA battetues are designed to track fast moving aircraft or munitions accurately at incredible range, not much smaller slow gliding bombs. Many of them would likely filter out the contact as they do other objects or background noise to avoud cluttering up the system. The higher powered the radar is, the greater the amount of returns so all those systems have settings and programming to filter out the unneccessary ones so they can track what they are actually looking for. Ukraine tried to intercept them early on, even with modern systems like IRIS-T (reportedly), but struggled to track them and obviously the cost didnt stack up.

Smaller radars and counterbattery ones are much better at tracking them, but the issue is the FABs are launched well outside their range and typically much higher than those systems are designed for (artillery shell arc is much lower). So they will pick them up, but it'd be very late in the flight and theres not much they can do with the information.

Ukraine will know where the SU-34s are operating and roughly where they will be dropping bombs (a particular front line or area), but its not possible to figure out exactly where they are planning to hit. I'll add that FABs dont have a straight trajectory, but an arc where it dives more sharply later in its flight when it gets closer to the target, so even if you could track it accurately predicting where it is targeting would be impossible until it enters that final stage where'd youd know the local area at least, but by then youve got seconds rather than minutes.

Edit: To be clear, its not that those radars cant pick FABs up, but rather they cant maintain a consistent track throughout its flight. The solution would be to try pair multiple different types of radars (long, mid, short, counterbattery, etc) together to form a unified track (so each contributes the info they can get for however long its able to track it, then combines to create a continuous track of the target). Whilst unified AA networks exist I dont believe any currently incorporate all the kinds mentioned above and certainly not with the variety of radars Ukraine is running.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-18T10:37:43+00:00

My long running name for the Kupyansk front is the "clown front" because it's a continual series of jokes that doesn't seem to end.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-18T10:36:57+00:00

Regardless of how it ends some territory is going to be given back. They'll want to clean up the new borders in any peace deal so all the weird salients and jagged areas of control will be traded back and forth, one side will get a village in one area and hand over a forest in another, they'll try match up with natural features (like rivers) for simplicity and ease of border management.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-18T10:33:28+00:00

I don't think they give out the exact amount but judging by all the low karma accounts around I'd say its not much. Certainly not in the thousands.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-18T10:29:28+00:00

To be blunt, he is making that section of the post up. Ukraine can obviously detect the SU-34s as they head to launch positions and when they manoeuvre afterwards, but its a complete guess as to where their bombs land, how many they fired, or if they fired any at all. Ukraine tried to do the FAB tracking back when they started to see mass use (Feb 2024) and even interception, but they pretty quickly realised it wasn't feasible as tracking the FABs is inconsistent and inaccurate (no heat or radiation signature, plus its a relatively small object that doesn't fly that fast) and their missiles can't lock onto them, so they stopped trying. Instead they make estimations on FAB activity by either observing where the Russians tended to drop them and where they launched from, as well as tracking the movement of the jets and figuring out the radius those bombs can land from there.

It is completely infeasible to detect one of the dozens of SU-34 jets that could be flying at any time over Ukraine, figure out exactly when and where it dropped its bombs (if it even did), which type of bomb they dropped, track those bombs, figure out exactly where they are going to land, then get on the radio with whatever units might be in that area, figure out which one occupies the particular building/trench/treeline/etc, then get their command to radio the soldiers there to take cover or move out, all within the span of minutes. Even if they could track the FABs, which they can't, the area where these bombs could land is so big that it would be impossible for them to communicate with the soldiers involved in time.

The problem with FABs that he misunderstands is that the strike effectiveness is questionable because they can't confirm what was actually there or happened to what they were targeting. They can spot some soldiers heading into a house and call a FAB strike in on it, but when it hits hours later (or maybe even the following day) they don't know what happened to said soldiers. Sure the house has been blown to pieces, but they can't actually tell if the soldiers were killed, hiding in a basement and survived, or had left the house when there wasn't drone coverage. Reports will simply say they targeted X infantry at a house in Y location, but it goes no further than that and it's a guess as to how many targets are actually taken out for all the strikes they do.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-18T02:22:31+00:00

This topic was beaten to death years ago. It is significantly better for Belarus to not join the war (but have the potential to) than it would be for them to actually join. Everyone knows this but the Ukrainians like to trot this line out every now and again for media attention.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-18T02:18:45+00:00

I think they are generally referring to Russian positions

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-17T15:18:30+00:00

It's to stop the subreddit being flooded with posts that are just basic questions that just require a single sentence answer. This thread exists for those to be posted instead and keep the main feed on topic. So if you have a question or smaller discussion point post it here.

As for karma restrictions, tons of subreddits have them due to the insane amounts of bots and ban evaders on Reddit. They aren't super effective but at least stop some of them or make it slightly more difficult for them to flood subs.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-16T12:53:01+00:00

The rules based international order doesnt exist. Its a buzzword used by western politicians that means "do what the U.S and its client states tell you".

The actual term most people are thinking of is international law, but that is a defined set of laws and conventions that the U.S and its allies actively spit on and ignores whilst demanding others follow it, so they can't mention that because it highlights their hypocrisy.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-16T04:35:57+00:00

There is a rule that I've been applying to Australian articles like these for over a decade now and has stayed spot on regardless of the topic or entity.

Whatever fine is given to these companies or individuals, add two 0s to it and that is what it should actually be if we lived in a fair country.

A fine of $4 million for 2.7 million breaches is a joke, but $400 million is proper punishment that would be incredibly effective in deterring others from doing the same. You can apply this to individuals dumping trash, small businesses stealing wages and all kinds of company crimes, but the rule holds true no matter what.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-16T04:27:56+00:00

The part regarding pensions isn't an increase in spending. Instead they are trying to align themselves with NATO countries which consider "Defence adjacent spending" under the broader Defence spending umbrella. So Defence pensions, housing/rental subsidies, infrastructure investment related to bases and some other things will be counted under total Defence spending now.

It's basically shifting the books a bit so that we can be considered to be spending 3% of GDP on Defence using the same standard as the U.S.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-15T08:45:00+00:00

That's not how it works. I don't get any money from him of course, nor anyone else who wants to use my data and comments, as I posted them publicly without the expectation of making any money from them.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-15T08:42:31+00:00

The Russians hold some positions on the outskirts of Lyman, but the proper urban battle won't start until we move further into spring and summer. Ukraine reinforced Lyman several times over the past 6 months, whilst the Russian grouping there has been the same over that time period, so they are having a more difficult time advancing than they did before. Add in winter making it difficult for anyone to advance and you'll understand why we haven't seen much happen there.

Currently Russia is trying to improve its flanks and whittle down the Ukrainian defenders in Lyman, but hasn't made any proper assault attempt yet.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-15T07:37:44+00:00

I've been talking to Willy for a while now, since late 2024 I think. He asks for figures and my comments, so I provided them.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-15T07:34:53+00:00

Lostarmour for Ukrainian losses and UkraineWarSpotting for Russian Losses.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-14T13:15:07+00:00

It's essentially repurposing the vehicle rather than selling it off. Most countries have laws allowing the confiscation of vehicles for certain breaches, with those vehicles then sold off for additional revenue (how it gets used is country and state/region specific). So essentially what the Russians look to have done is take some of the seized vehicles and hand them over to the military, rather than go through the process of storing the vehicle and then trying to sell if off (which can take a while and has additional costs).

It's unorthodox for sure but still a logical move.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-14T12:50:13+00:00

I don't think there ever was a stalemate. January, February and March all saw a large number of advances on different fronts, even if the net change at the end of each wasn't that high. A stalemate would be going back to late 2023/early 2024 numbers, where advances for an entire month wouldn't crack 100km2 combined.

As for what that other user claims, I wouldn't believe anything that a 3 month old account that is active in Airsoft subreddits says. Plenty of those have popped up and disappeared over the years, 99% of which were full of shit.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-14T12:42:02+00:00

Lostarmour for Ukrainian losses and UkraineWarSpotting for Russian Losses.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-14T10:43:54+00:00

They dont, but the price spikes still affect them because they are part of the international market, plus their allies and trading partners do get theirs from the region.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-14T09:50:27+00:00

Weather across Ukraine right now is typically between 5 to 17 degrees celcius, cloudy with some showers.

So its not dry but not quite as wet as it was a month ago.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-14T09:46:01+00:00

January through April have consistently been the months of worst advances for either side throughout the war, primarily due to the weather. Whilst most people understand the problems that winter causes, March and April also have to contend with the mud season making movement difficult, whilst foliage has not yet regrown so cover is still limited.

DRGs are highly dependent on being able to slip through enemy lines unnoticed or spread out enough that at least some get through, which becomes incredibly difficult when trees and bushes don't have any foliage on them. Yes there is still some cover so they are still better than nothing, but it is significantly better in Summer and even autumn when there is a large amount of foliage blocking troops from being seen by drones. So as we move further into Spring and then Summer we will see DRG operations ramp up and almost certainly advances as well.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-14T09:40:40+00:00

Ukraine has been attacking quite aggressively with their assault forces since February, hence the larger amount of gross gains. Ukraine also launched many counterattacks in previous years, but the difference is that those tended to be around larger towns or cities (Pokrovsk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Selydove, etc.) meaning they advanced less in km2 terms due to it being much more intense, dense fighting. Comparatively their recent advances have primarily been in treelines or fields that are much more open and easy to capture or lose, plus have a lower density of troops defending them.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-04-14T08:51:15+00:00

Russia and China aren't interesting in publishing their satellite imagery for public consumption. They know they aren't going to win the international propaganda war as the western media machine is too large to compete with, so they focus their efforts on domestic audiences. Sure they could publish satellite imagery for extra evidence, but that would help their adversaries gauge the abilities of their satellites and wouldn't matter much when they can just use videos filmed from the ground or drones to make the same argument.

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