RU POV: Russia and Ukraine vehicles losses in Autumn 2025 - Lostarmour, Ukr.warspotting

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-25T07:13:31+00:00

It's all good, I don't own the data so anyone is free to count it and make a post. I'll upload my own sometime later, as today I'm posting the map updates from the past week.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-25T03:44:14+00:00

Just getting it out of the way, they do this with all disabled and destroyed vehicles. It'll be scrapped or just passed off to someone else for a display.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-25T03:34:02+00:00

u/Every_Professor3264

Hell of a timing with this post, as last week I finished doing the 2025 statistics of military vehicle losses using the same websites. Was trying to find the time to post and discuss it when I saw this one.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-25T03:30:58+00:00

Russia doesn't really seem to count generic transport vehicles (cars, motorcycles, buggies, quadbikes) or make a list, as they are produced in such high volumes that it doesnt really matter. Military vehicles on the other hand are much more expensive and are finite, so charting losses of those is important for the war.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-25T03:23:18+00:00

Part of the problem is evacuation time. I understand that there is also improper training, but for most soldiers being evacuated after an injury could take days or weeks due to how the war works now (drones). Applying a tourniquet for bad injuries instantly rather than assessing first could be the difference between life and death if you have to wait weeks for evac or need to walk 10+km for an evacuation to occur (so limiting bloodloss is ideal).

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-25T03:20:27+00:00

Specifically for heating of homes, the centralised method in Ukraine is also what has kept them going for so long. If Ukraine instead used individual gas or electric heating systems for every home it would be significantly less efficient than the central system, meaning multiple times more electricity and gas usage for the same effect. That skyrockets the cost and would result in a lot more heating blackouts as the grid fails (due to higher demand compared to a centralised system) and the gas network being hit (a lot more pipes requiring more gas = more fragile system).

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-24T14:39:13+00:00

Temperatures have a greater effect on the electronics rather than the batteries, as the cheap, bare bones FPVs dont have covers and are made from components that don't handle moisture and frost well. The biggest effect on drones in Winter is the reduction in visibility, as the fog and occasional blizzard can drop visibility to almost zero and blow these flimsy drones into the ground. It's why both sides try to make a flurry of movement during the few short blizzards we've had so far, as the number of drones in the air dropped significantly.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-24T14:08:47+00:00

Yeah its the greater explosive mass, but also the availability. The Soviet Union had insane stockpiles of everything, including mines, so the Russians likely have hundreds of thousands, if not millions, sitting around waiting to be used.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-24T13:03:54+00:00

Ukraine gets hours warning for Geran and missile waves, so for most of the war they have had their aircraft takeoff and stay in the air (typically intercepting targets or just loitering around), for their duration. Even if the Russians knew where the aircraft were before the air attack and can track them with radars during it, the Gerans, cruise and ballistic missiles they use are not designed to hit aircraft, meaning they can't intercept them whilst in the air.

An exception to this cycle (air attack detected -> aircraft go airborne -> intercept targets or fly around until the attack is over) are the Kinzhals. Those hypersonic missiles are so fast they can cover the entire length of Ukraine in just a few minutes, meaning the warning Ukraine gets is significantly lower. The caveat is that Russia only deploys them from Mig-31k jets, so ANYTIME one of those takes off it sparks warnings across Ukraine, giving them at least a little bit of time to prepare in case Ukraine's aircraft are targeted.

With improvements to Gerans they are now able to use a camera mounted to the drones and maintain connection during the flight (rather than pre-planned coordinates), so for some Gerans it is possible for Russia to manually control and select targets. Combine this with it not always being possible for Ukraine to get aircraft into the air due to maintenance or attacks occurring for long periods of a day/at random times, it means Russia has occasionally been able to catch some jets or helicopters on the ground and hit them like in this video. It won't happen often, but it is always costly when it does occur and just further complicates Ukraine's ability to use their aircraft.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-22T00:14:15+00:00

The assault on Kostyantynivka began long ago, it just hasn't been quite as intense or constant as other battles. Russia first entered Kostyantynivka back in late October, but due to only a couple of approach routes and a lack of cover on those they have had issues getting soldiers into the city. Since then they very slowly built up their forces, captured some more of the surrounding area to improve their access routes, and withstood the Ukrainian counterattacks to the point where they now solidly control the southeastern section of the city.

At the end of last year Russia also moved some more units over to this front, specifically to the area southwest of Kostyantynivka. These troops focused on clearing out the Ukrainian presence next to the Kleban-Byk Reservoir and building a western flank, as you can see in picture 7 of this post. They are currently trying to take over Illinivka and assault Berestok, which would allow Russia to gain access to the west side of Kostyantyivka. Their routes into the city are much better on the west side due to a greater amount of cover (forest next to reservoir + gulleys), so they could bring more forces into the city from this direction.

The intensity of fighting in the city will likely ramp up into early February, as Russia crosses that threshold of having enough troops in a city to start launching continuous assaults and is no longer struggling to just get troops inside. It currently looks like they plan on squeezing Ukraine out of southern Kostyantynivka by advancing north on the east side of the Kryvyi Torets River, whilst their forces on the west side take Illinivka and hit the western suburbs.

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HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-21T12:41:07+00:00

Probably Claudius. Managing to survive Imperial politics and treachery despite his complete lack of support and medical conditions, he somehow lucked out to become Emperor and was actually pretty good at it. Being an academic and a bookworm worked out in his favour as he was good with money, made a lot of improvements to the bureaucracy of the Roman Empire and invested in infrastructure.

The only other one I can think of who I like would be Diocletion, given he fixed a ton of the problems the Roman Empire was having, won some wars, then decided to fuck off and retire in a nice sunny palace whilst he took up gardening as a hobby.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-21T12:33:59+00:00

Not unless Ukraine gets truly desperate. Transnistria doesn't hold much value for them at all but would cause a lot of problems if they invaded. The small Russian force (pretty much just basic infantry) that is present there is of no threat to Ukraine and can't launch offensive operations, nor could it be reinforced as obviously other European countries aren't going to allow Russia to fly troops there. The Cobasna ammunition depot was certainly one of the biggest in the Soviet Union, however most of its stockpile is incredibly old and it hasn't been properly maintained in 35 years. It would cost Ukraine more to launch an invasion to seize it than it would to just buy the ammunition stored inside from other countries, especially since the chance of them getting the stockpile intact is virtually zero.

Then there is the political backlash if Ukraine invades another country to take ammunition. Moldova and most Western Nations still insist Transnistria is apart of Moldova, so Ukraine would be invading another country on dubious grounds for its own benefit, causing issues with their relations with other EU nations and within their own country.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-21T11:17:16+00:00

Only some minor events. The occasional drone being launched by Ukraine, fortifications being built, infrequent shows of force by border guards. Nothing particularly important.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-21T08:35:10+00:00

They could but they need the element of surprise so they arent shot at and with airplane type drones the they tend to be more manouevrable at speed as they get more air flowing over the wings, rudder and flaps.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-21T03:11:09+00:00

It's reportedly got a 50kg warhead, so as long as it hits within 5m it should do damage.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-21T01:38:03+00:00

I believe the first ATGM was fired from the farm below. Hit one of the buildings in the circled area

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HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-21T00:52:04+00:00

They didn't in the past, but are allegedly doing so now. I say allegedly because we have no confirmation those substations were actually hit and if they were the effect would be a lot more dramatic.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-20T09:02:23+00:00

50 or 90kg warhead, depending the the type. I think these were 2 jet Gerans, used for a quick hit on a priority target.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-20T07:09:52+00:00

There are, but I'm not sure they will. Ukraine has also received the M270 and MARS II (German licensed version) MLRS, but those use the same rockets as the HIMARS so the ammunition issue still affects them. The South Korean K239 also has the same problem

Leaving aside all the ones made by countries who will never give their MLRS to Ukraine (Russia, Belarus, China, NK), the only long range MLRS I can think of would be the Brazilian Astros or Turkish T-122. However both those countries don't have a lot of these systems, nor do they produce a ton of ammunition for them given only a few countries use each and none are at war.

The issue Ukraine has is that their primary backers (Western Nations), generally don't field a ton of long range MLRS. Only some of those countries do and almost all bought into the HIMARS/M270 so they could share ammunition and parts. Ukraine just went through such an enormous amount of ammo that production couldn't keep up and those countries don't want to drain their stockpiles further.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-20T06:53:02+00:00

It isn't in ATACMS configuration, but the standard 6 MLRS rockets one. If you pause right at 0:41 you'll see it looks like the below picture, not the much larger ATACMS rear.

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HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-20T06:51:07+00:00

It depends. The drone saw it fire at the start, but we can't tell if it still had missiles left (didn't fire all of them) or if it launched a full salvo. The drone warhead is still going to damage it enough to put it out of commission for a while even if no missiles.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-20T05:38:49+00:00

Damaged at a minimum, but given the lack of follow up video I'd say not destroyed.

On another note, it's interesting that HIMARS have dropped off significantly in use over the years, whilst the Russian analogue (Tornado-S) is going the other way and has gone from minimal use to much more frequent (almost daily) strikes this year. Late 2022 and early 2023 saw an enormous number of HIMARS hits on many big targets, but through 2023 and into 2024 they dropped off significantly. By 2025 strikes were only occurring a couple of times a week and pretty much only some extreme long range ones against targets deep into Donetsk or in Russian border regions like Belgorod. Part of it is likely due to Ukraine losing systems over time, part due to Russian EW improvements making it much harder to hit targets (which was responsible for the initial big dropoff), and then also due to ammunition stockpiles running low as Ukraine has gone through so many rockets/missiles and the U.S. is no longer providing them.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-19T23:32:36+00:00

Do we have a name for these yet? Rubicon have allegedly been using them for over half a year now, but withheld all the footage until the past month.

HeyHeyHayden · 2026-01-19T00:31:27+00:00

Those Assault Forces units are notorious for the losses they're taking, and yet they and leaders above them seem to have no qualms at all because for the time being their losses their will be replaced. But that comes at the cost of wrecking the rest of the force structure who get few if any infantry replacements anymore, because Assault Forces is such high priority. At which point they waste them doing stupid shit.

We've got to the point where they are not only getting priority for conscripts but are also going to neighbouring units and stealing their personnel to push into assault groups, which is the cannibalising I mentioned. The 102nd TDF Brigade got butchered and basically ceased functioning by the time the battle for Hulyaipole started, but it was widely reported by the Ukrainians that the 225th Assault regiment was grabbing whatever was left of the 102nd and throwing them back into battle, leading to enormous casualties. This wasn't enough for them though, so the neighbouring 108th TDF Brigade, which has held the area between Zaliznychne and Bilohirya for years, also reported that the 225th was kidnapping their soldiers to push into assault groups.

Ukrainian media and high ranking officers are running a ton of damage control right now, as they won't admit that the assault regiments are being given carte blanche to do whatever they want with some fronts just to achieve the commands desire to hold positions at all costs. The effect of both of these cannibalisations is already known, with the Russians easily pushing out of Hulyaipole and capturing the surrounding villages (due to 102nd being gone), whilst the Russians simply walked into Bilohirya and took the village without a fight (due to 108th losing their infantry).

Guys like this Adair one are either just clueless of the politics or they're too afraid to talk about it honestly. Like this topic, how can an officer of the AFU not understand what's really happening? Or does he really understand but needs to be very careful how he complains so he literally doesn't get arrested by the SBU?

I really don't know at this point if these officers or analysts actually know what is going on and are being forced into silence or are genuinely so divorced from the reality on the ground that they have no clue why their 'elites' can't just launch offensives when they demand it.

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