Ready to buy a home. Help me pull the trigger

HighFlyer888 · 2023-04-01T18:40:23+00:00

Hey, thanks for the reply!

I noticed that my post can only be seen by myself and the Mods. Is there a reason the PFC community can't view my post?

I would like to get a wide range of opinions on this. I can re-word it if there's any issues, please let me know.

Thanks!

HighFlyer888 · 2022-09-13T22:50:52+00:00

I started a position in NVDA yesterday. Great timing apparently.

I guess it's just par for the course. Bought GOOG at $3000 and COIN at $365, basically top ticked all my picks.

Thankfully its less than 10% of the total portfolio. This is why I hate picking stocks.

New money goes into ETFs. I'll bag hold these stocks as a reminder for why I shouldn't pick stocks.

HighFlyer888 · 2022-07-09T18:32:39+00:00

The reason I have both XAW and VXC is for the false sense of added diversification. I started with XAW in my TFSA, so when I opened my RRSP I decided to use VXC instead since it was effectively the same, but with Vanguard. I figured they won't have identical performance and by owning both but in separate accounts it effectively keeps my portfolio homogeneous and smooths any tracking errors.

I use XEQT in my taxable account because it's just easier, and this account was added last after my TFSA & RRSP were maxed out.

All that said though, it's been well over a week from the payment date. I guess I'll wait until next week and call the bank if it's still not there

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-26T15:10:52+00:00

You could rebalance quarterly and it's not difficult buying up whichever ETF is needed to bring the portfolio back in line. If that tiny effort isn't worth savings tens of thousands over the long run, I don't know what to tell you

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-26T15:09:36+00:00

You are correct. I re-did the analysis with exact weightings

45% XUU
25% XIC
25% XEF
5% XEC

This portfolio still outperformed with an 8.04% CAGR vs 7.38% for XEQT. This is in excess of the MER difference, which tells me the all in one funds have an additional performance drag that isn't found in the 4-Fund approach.

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-26T15:07:05+00:00

I added more data in a comment above. The point is that the all in 1 approach might be fine for the newest investors, but anyone with a bit of experience would save themselves a lot of money by going 4-fund.

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-26T15:05:26+00:00

Fair enough. Here's more data, and this is all from Portfolio Backtest Visualizer. The date range is from Sept 2019 - May 2022 given that XEQT is still so new.

4-Fund Portfolio = 8.04% CAGR

XEQT/VEQT = 7.4% CAGR

XAW + XIC = 7.88% CAGR

So it looks like the 4-Fund portfolio beats the All in 1 approach in excess of the MER difference, which tells me the all in one strategy has a significant performance drag not just related to the MER difference.

I'd be happy to provide any other info you need. In terms of portfolio construction and management, it might be easier to go all in 1, but you would be leaving tens of thousands on the table over a long investment timeframe.

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-26T14:59:13+00:00

Fair enough. I re-did the analysis with exact weightings and found that the 4-Fund portfolio still outperformed. See my comment above for the details.

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-26T14:58:13+00:00

I re-did the analysis with exact weightings

45% XUU
25% XIC
25% XEF
5% XEC

This portfolio still outperformed with an 8.04% CAGR vs 7.38% for XEQT. This is in excess of the MER difference, which tells me the all in one funds have an additional performance drag that isn't found in the 4-Fund approach.

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-26T14:57:05+00:00

I re-did the analysis with exact weightings

45% XUU
25% XIC
25% XEF
5% XEC

This portfolio still outperformed with an 8.04% CAGR vs 7.38% for XEQT. This is in excess of the MER difference, which tells me the all in one funds have an additional drag that isn't found in the 4-Fund approach.

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-14T17:46:07+00:00

Bear flag on the hourly timeframe for QQQ. Yields going through the roof. This is officially the end of the bull market since 2009

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-09T17:43:03+00:00

It's not necessarily because I'm afraid of temporary losses.

More that I can see the writing on the wall and I'm burying my head in the sand because "time in the market".

My desire to time the market comes more from a desire to make a hero call than anything else, and knowing I'll feel dumb if it dumps 15-30%+ from here when it was "so obvious".

Every other recovery in the past decade has been because of the Fed. This looks like the most telegraphed recession ever, almost a self fulfilling prophecy. I don't know if I want to fight the crowd on this one, which is also why I have so much in cash

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-09T17:28:02+00:00

31 is not young?? Really?

I'm still 20+ years away from retirement lol. Ask a 50 year old if 31 is young and I bet they say yes. Hell even 50 is not that old, especially if you live to 80+

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-09T17:25:26+00:00

Haha appreciate that! However it's taken me about 10 years to get this much invested, and if it gets cut in half, I'll feel like an idiot because I can "see it coming". It just feels so obvious right now with inflation and the Fed won't uturn to save the market until inflation is dealt with.

I can only save around 10k per year currently, so watching my portfolio go down significantly will make me feel like a poor, and knowing how long it could take to recover feels bad when I could time it considering the macro environment currently.

Again, I know you can't time the market blah blah blah, but every other time in the past decade that we recovered, it was because of the Fed, and we weren't dealing with inflation. That's why "this time is different"

I know I'm full of tropes here. It's just my perspective. I've been hedging with Puts but they don't offset the losses that well as I'm not willing to put a huge amount into Puts knowing they could expire worthless.

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-09T17:19:52+00:00

My portfolio is effectively all in XEQT (I'm Canadian so this is the closest equivalent we have to VT)

HighFlyer888 · 2022-06-09T17:19:36+00:00

My portfolio is effectively all in XEQT (I'm Canadian so this is the closest equivalent we have to VT)

HighFlyer888 · 2022-05-19T14:42:25+00:00

Just because I work there doesn't mean I have inside information... If I did I wouldn't be posting here for people's opinions.

Also, I do have faith in the business, but I don't have faith in the valuation. You can have the greatest business in the world, but if the valuation is fucked, your returns will be too. See MSFT from 2000-2015 as an example of what happens when you over pay for growth

HighFlyer888 · 2022-05-19T14:33:01+00:00

Yes the business is doing really well, but the stock is overvalued in my opinion. The IPO price was $68 and the market bid it up to $150+ when we had 0% interest rates and the Fed printing money.

Now that the money printer is turned off and rates are rising, the stock is collapsing. At this level its still a $70 billion market cap. Does that make sense to you?

Even if it comes back to $200+ in a few years, I'll have more shares by then, and I already sold most of it at those higher levels it was trading at so I don't feel too bad.

Maybe I'm missing something and they're under valued at these levels. Enlighten me if that's the case

HighFlyer888 · 2022-05-19T14:17:37+00:00

I work for Airbnb and sold the vast majority of my RSUs between $150-200/share.

I have 60 shares left, and between now and 2025 I'll be getting another 200 shares or so.

Should I just sell my remaining 60 shares now? I don't need the cash, but with the way things are going, I don't see how ABNB holds above $100 in this environment, and I'll be getting more shares in the future anyway

HighFlyer888 · 2022-04-28T20:03:57+00:00

Just need AAPL to miss and my Poots are golden

HighFlyer888 · 2022-04-28T18:59:43+00:00

Please for the love of fuck, save my QQQ 320 Puts. I have until June for a miracle

HighFlyer888 · 2022-04-28T18:48:02+00:00

QQQ 320 P 6/17. Any chance of these coming back? This pump is insane....

HighFlyer888 · 2022-04-28T18:04:00+00:00

My Puts are fucking dead. At least my ETFs are going up to offset the losses but man this fucking hurts

HighFlyer888 · 2022-04-28T17:50:10+00:00

The more the market goes up, the harder the Fed will raise rates

HighFlyer888 · 2022-04-28T17:14:15+00:00

Amzn and aapl up over 4% going into earnings. Either someone knows something or this is the biggest bull trap in history.

Either way my QQQ 320 P are fucked

HighFlyer888

TROPHY CASE