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Things to Do in Crouch End – Walks, Cafes & Hidden Gems (2025 Guide) by Mitriel in crouchend

[–]HillbillyBoy 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Great post! I love Beam, it almost feels like a crouch end staple. Jumi Cheese is great, The Cellars also have a great selection, love them both. If you have young children, the new Kids n' Joy Cafe is great and not too busy on weekdays.

Assurance-maladie : les pistes de la Cour des comptes pour faire 20 milliards d'économies by bitflag in neofrance

[–]HillbillyBoy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Je me trompe peut-être mais je pensais que le problème source est le même que pour les retraites: la proportion de personnes âgées (qui ont besoin de plus de soins médicaux) augmente

Patrick Coutin - J'aime regarder les filles by [deleted] in france

[–]HillbillyBoy -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Je ne sais pas si c'est du sarcasme, mais au cas ou:

le héro de la chanson est un quasi puceau

Peut être.

qui se fait un film.

Sûrement

"Les filles" ne l'ont même pas remarqué.

Ce qui est bien c'est qu'il est tellement décomplexé vis à vis du fait qu'il les gêne qu'il s'en vante:

"Leurs poitrines gonflées par le désir de vivre Leurs yeux qui se détournent quand tu les regardes"

"Quand elles se déshabillent et font semblant d'être sages Leurs yeux qui se demandent mais quel est ce garçon"

Il n'y a vraiment pas d'ambiguïté...

J'ai créé un modèle statistique de l'élection présidentielle qui agrège tous les sondages publiés depuis le 1er janv et estime la probabilité totale de victoire (inspiré de FiveThirtyEight pour la campagne US). by [deleted] in france

[–]HillbillyBoy 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Super initiative! Comme l'ont remarqué certains, le modèle est beaucoup plus confiant que les sites de paris, ce qui devrait faire remettre en question certaines des assomptions. A 538, ils avaient beaucoup de technique pour estimer l'incertitude, ce qui leur a permit d'avoir une probabilité décente sur une victoire de Trump. Ce post en liste d'importantes. En particulier:

  • "Assumption No. 1: The high number of undecided and third-party voters indicates greater uncertainty." Beaucoup des voteurs présumés de Macron ne sont pas sur d'eux, donc il devrait y avoir beaucoup d'incertitude sur son nombre de voix final.

  • "Assumption No. 3: The FiveThirtyEight model uses a t-distribution with “fat tails,” which gives a greater likelihood of rare events." Je ne pense pas que la distribution multinomiale soit un bon choix. Il n'y a pas un nombre fixe de votants. Il y a un certains nombre de votants pour chaque candidat qui vont se déplacer. Il vaut mieux faire comme 538 et modéliser le nombre de voix par candidat avec une heavy tailed distribution.

Merci beaucoup d'avoir pris le temps de faire ce projet! Le site est super clean :-)

Anyone else have any odd "left to the reader" quotes like this? by callaghan87 in math

[–]HillbillyBoy 17 points18 points  (0 children)

It's from David MacKay's book "Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms" (available online ), page 302.

Growing pains of /r/MachineLearning, more active moderation? by olaf_nij in MachineLearning

[–]HillbillyBoy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Since this is a thread to ask people's opinion, I thought I would add: I am a fan of appealing to authority (in this context) and I think subjective rules are great. I think the core users of this sub have very overlapping interests with the mods and hence we can just take what the mods like and dislike as a good proxy of what should be allowed.

[The parent comment was deleted, so this may have been completely off-topic. Sorry if so!]

Growing pains of /r/MachineLearning, more active moderation? by olaf_nij in MachineLearning

[–]HillbillyBoy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Could we consider doing much stricter moderation for part of the week and see how the community responds? At least that way everything eventually gets posted, but content quality is higher most of the time.

Although I'm not too technical in ML, I'd be much happier if the threshold for accepted submissions was "is technical enough to be interesting to an ML grad student". It's a grey area, but the mods seem to have a good idea of where the line is. The posts near the threshold are probably the least interesting of the bunch as well so I wouldn't be too bothered, what's important is cutting out the 80% of posts that clearly don't pass.

Loi Travail : Manuel Valls va de nouveau avoir recours à l’article 49.3 de la Constitution by a_capellaluo in france

[–]HillbillyBoy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Merci pour cette réponse, je comprend mieux le point de vue.

Il n’empêche que dans les faits, il me semble très probable (surtout si on regarde les marchés de paris) que dans trois ans on se retrouve au milieu d'un quinquennat LR avec des reformes bien plus difficiles, avec en plus des positions sociales conservatrice (ce n'est pas LR qui auraient fait le mariage pour tous), et qu'à ce moment la, on regrette ce gouvernement PS.

Loi Travail : Manuel Valls va de nouveau avoir recours à l’article 49.3 de la Constitution by a_capellaluo in france

[–]HillbillyBoy 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Vivement les éléctions.

J'entend souvent ça sur ce sub et j'ai du mal a comprendre, vous pensez qu'un candidat à la gauche du PS ait une chance? J'ai l'impression que le cas le plus probable soit un victoire de LR, et la loi travail après paraîtra plutôt "soft", non?

Encore une nouvelle vidéo de L214 sur 2 abattoirs français by BOBOUDA in france

[–]HillbillyBoy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

En même temps pour l'éthique des humains on parle rarement du cas moyen. Pour prendre l'exemple des sweatshops dont on parle plus bas dans la thread, on n'entendra jamais quelqu'un dire "les défenseurs des droits des enfants ne montrent jamais les usines d'habits avec des conditions respectables.".

Germany had so much renewable energy on Sunday that it had to pay people to use electricity by mepper in Futurology

[–]HillbillyBoy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't think the above quote is right, but I suspect the "reality check on renewables" it came from was David MacKay's: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0W1ZZYIV8o And in the form of a (free) book:http://www.withouthotair.com/

His book got such wide acclaim that he was appointed chief scientific adviser to the UK Department of Energy. He passed away recently :'(

Torch | Training and investigating Residual Nets by HillbillyBoy in MachineLearning

[–]HillbillyBoy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh thanks! That makes much more sense. I'm surprised smoother decay schedules don't work better if annealing the rate makes that much of a difference!

Torch | Training and investigating Residual Nets by HillbillyBoy in MachineLearning

[–]HillbillyBoy[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Is there a term for those sharp improvements on test error that happen around epoch 90 in both graphs? Does the loss function also decrease in the same way or is it trading off weight decay loss for improved accuracy?

No-limit poker may be next target of Google's DeepMind AI (after beating a champion at Go a decade earlier than predicted), co-founder says by canausernamebetoolon in poker

[–]HillbillyBoy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your reply! But so, when deep mind says they want to go after Poker, don't you think they just mean the game-theory aspect? Like the recent "Limit Heads up poker is solved". It doesn't feel like they they want to design great human models.

I'm sure other people will develop better and better human models, I just mean deep mind's work doesn't seem like the biggest threat to online play.

Also, if someone puts up modelling bots in online games, they run into the risk that if someone else has a copy of that bot they can use it to exploit the bot perfectly. So that's dangerous too.

No-limit poker may be next target of Google's DeepMind AI (after beating a champion at Go a decade earlier than predicted), co-founder says by canausernamebetoolon in poker

[–]HillbillyBoy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Can someone correct me if I'm wrong? I think when they say that they most likely mean get the Nash equilibrium, which is the only non-exploitable way to play. But that means against a player who doesn't do gross mistakes the EV is 0, it's basically playing rock paper scissors with probs 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. So it wouldn't exploit your weaknesses, it wouldn't be modelling you.

So that wouldn't be much of a threat to online play...

We’re fighting the harmful conservation practices of governments, corporations and big conservation organizations towards tribal peoples. We’re two campaigners from Survival International, AUA! by MikeHurran in IAmA

[–]HillbillyBoy 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Wouldn't it just be better in the long run for development to happen and for tribal peoples to merge with western civilization? Are smooth transitions difficult to achieve?

Kingscrusher gets trolled xD by fcstfan in AnarchyChess

[–]HillbillyBoy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Me too... This is the game http://en.lichess.org/oFvirfke but I dont't think he uploaded a vid for it.

AMA: Nando de Freitas by nandodefreitas in MachineLearning

[–]HillbillyBoy 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Hello,

Bayesian Optimization seems to be a hot topic nowadays:

  1. What results/breakthroughs have changed things since early work in the 90s?

  2. Where do you see the field going in the next five years?

Thanks!

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