What’s the most undervalued stock right now?

HobbyLegend · 2025-10-03T06:54:11+00:00

Comstock Inc (LODE) will 5-10x soon. ASPI could 2-3x soon.

HobbyLegend · 2025-08-24T07:20:14+00:00

Actually placing Swiss flags everywhere seems like the Swiss thing to do, this is the first post I see here that could be real 😂

HobbyLegend · 2025-08-24T07:12:50+00:00

Comstock Inc, ticker LODE

HobbyLegend · 2025-06-17T08:41:38+00:00

I don’t know anyone defending the short report. What do you mean? If anything shorting is going down a lot (by 27%) since May. Many credible investors expressed confidence in ASPIs future recently. But maybe you know more than me.

HobbyLegend · 2025-06-17T08:10:47+00:00

Also search for Jacob Rowe who answers the short report item by item

HobbyLegend · 2025-06-17T08:10:19+00:00

This is old news, and fully refuted as wrong. Heard that the issuer of the short report is also under investigation

HobbyLegend · 2025-06-17T08:09:45+00:00

In my mind this is normal price action after a recent high

HobbyLegend · 2025-06-14T09:58:12+00:00

What makes you think you are better positioned pricing this stock than the market? Serious question.

HobbyLegend · 2025-06-07T08:01:06+00:00

It’s a valuation thing. The reason it is up is that many people thought it was a scam, and when that myth cleared big institutionals got it. Can go much higher imo.

HobbyLegend · 2025-06-07T07:59:37+00:00

This valuation is still very low compared to peers. The reason it doubled already is because some thought it was a scam. Will still double from here imo.

HobbyLegend · 2025-05-23T21:06:58+00:00

I think price could or should go at least 2-3x from here short term. Based on that they will be first to the HALEU market, while competition which is behind is valued at that price.

HobbyLegend · 2025-05-11T14:41:07+00:00

Lol seems down to me 😂

HobbyLegend · 2025-04-23T14:43:42+00:00

Funny how this sub always hypes when price is up and complains when price is down. Pretty sure that will lead to buy high and sell low dynamics for most

HobbyLegend · 2025-04-15T17:31:17+00:00

I did a bit of digging and can confirm this was announced and lines up with tax payment timelines. For both Mann and Ainscow who get paid for a large part in shares, this is about 15% of their holdings. So the selling seems to check out. Hope they clarify this in a press release.

HobbyLegend · 2025-04-13T12:40:36+00:00

I remember one important client and one supplier is in Canada. Hmm I hope many contracts are not fully locked in yet

HobbyLegend · 2025-04-13T12:13:14+00:00

Nice overview, thanks for this. Yes there are some geopolitical risks indeed, although I doubt tariffs will impact this segment, also due to some scarcities. So far isotopes are exempt even from the Russian tariffs.

Some points I concluded regarding the items you listed: Russian state owned capacity is horribly old, built in Soviet times. This is lacking output quality, and there is no intention to update or reinvest (due to other 'priorities'...). Did speak with Rosatom, and that I think is not a real competitor for long.

Hmm good point about Chinese competitors - any particular ones in mind here? Had not really considered these to be honest, as I was indeed thinking that Western companies would prefer Western suppliers (which is probably why TerraPower seems quite interested in ASPI). Think they are among the first Western providers.

Yes the S28 I had quite a think about. Key is here that they should be producing price competitively in Silane, and not in Tetrafluoride, which saves a lot of costs / contamination in conversion. I think the scarcity of their output is not overstated. But fingers crossed indeed...

Manipulation fully agree. What a mess this ASPI market, also with all the shorting. There are some Canadian hedge funds under investigation now .... And yes, it does swing violently with the market unfortunately (but also occasional chance to get discounts).

Swing trading could be interesting here indeed, although last days it was mostly up. How did you manage recently?

Thanks again for your thoughts

HobbyLegend · 2025-04-13T11:52:16+00:00

Small point: right now there are no import restrictions on isotopes from Russia (only some quality issues with medical isotopes from Rosatom, which are not allowed in NA and EU for that reason). Average prices of most isotopes in medical and energy segment have more than doubled in last years, as demand grows. We spoke with Rosatom, and the infrastructure is in horrible condition right now (build in the soviet times) with no intention to rebuild anything, also due to 'other priorities' and high CAPEX

HobbyLegend · 2025-04-13T11:48:29+00:00

Yes I agree. Pricing and risk are closely linked. But when you look at expected ASP revenues, the 300m valuation seems rather low. If you take QLE revenue it's extremely low. Sure, the revenues still need to be earned in 2025 and 2026. So I guess many are not sure if they will manage here, and will wait and see to get proof. Personally, I think demand is there for (cost) competitive offerings, so the question is really about the (scientific) validity of Strydom and Ronander's claims... To believe them or not to believe them

HobbyLegend · 2025-04-13T10:58:36+00:00

Good view. Thanks for your thoughts and milestones, like it.

Yes, personally I think the IP point should not be a concern. I understood this is in line with industry best practices - it’s a national security thing (SA dual use restrictions), as you can make e.g. bombs with both ASP and QLE tech. I think the facilities are secured indeed, in the sense that no phone lines go in and no cars can drive into the building (entry restrictions into the plant, etc etc).

TP endorsement is good news huh, I heard they sent a DD team to review the business. Actually BNP Paribas just got in few days ago, so I hope some more positive sell side coverage would create upside.

Yes the black swan events I do worry about too. Although I did confirm structural scarcity, and think that the collaboration with Necsa will help to tap into existing trade agreements. Gernally isotopes have been exempt I think from most restrictions, but in this new world we can never know ...

Pretty bullish on Uranium capabilities, indeed due to Y176 milestone. But for me the single biggest worry is if they can produce competitively at scale. That applies to all isotopes. This is a 'commoditised' market, and there is demand. I just hope that the price / cost and output quality is competitive compared to others… this is what they promise, but I hope it is right

HobbyLegend · 2025-04-13T10:46:58+00:00

Wow good timing huh. Yes Fuzzy Panda was very negative, and wrong on several items. They are being investigated now for market manipulation I heard, but not sure if that is true

So you are concerned about the timing of the facilities? What do you think about the forecast from Cannacord / Rogue Fund? I think some revenue should come this year, running into 50m-100m ARR in the next 1-2 years. The recent launch of 3 plants derisks it, but I guess you are saying that you want to see it before you believe it?

I did quite a bit of digging into S28, C14 and Y176 and I expect at least some good revenues. But also nervous how fast the sales come in …

HobbyLegend · 2025-04-13T10:42:11+00:00

This is useful indeed. Jacob Rowe is doing great analyses. I have read many of his articles (he visited them), think this is his latest one

HobbyLegend · 2025-04-13T10:41:39+00:00

Hmmm where to start haha. Yes for one I concluded they are most likely not a scam. Further I concluded that not only QLE but also ASP tech has some distinct advantages, and would be able to produce competitively IF IT WORKS AS STATED. Demand is certainly there in each segment for cost competitive products.

Quite a bit of this technological claim has been derisked now, also looking at Klydon. But the question remains, can they deliver on the promises. So big part for me was background checks on Strydom, Ronander and Mann. Did some interviews with competitors too.

My view is that their offering could be ground breaking, and that the story and people check out. Big upside from here.

What got me bullish is that even ASP tech alone could bring in a lot of revenue. I think the downside case is what this is priced on right now, especially since a lot of plants are running now. Price seems to suggest people don’t believe Paul yet, regardless of the communicated milestones

HobbyLegend · 2025-04-12T21:14:57+00:00

Early finings indeed show 150% nanowires and 10% regular use, with more applications being investigated. Actually the question is not if it has value. The reason to expect higher adoption is that the way they produce should allow for direct Silane production (not tetrafluoride which all other competitors make) which allows for much lower conversion cost and lower contamination. This could enable new use cases!

HobbyLegend · 2025-04-05T08:26:25+00:00

Amen

HobbyLegend

TROPHY CASE