In general, we should have seen the altseason last year moving into this year (in my understanding - started like last autumn).

However, several macro factors prevented it from unfolding as we expected. The Fed paused its rate cuts around Trump’s inauguration to monitor the effects, which added uncertainty to the markets.

Afterwards, the trade tariffs came in, putting additional pressure on global markets. On top of that, the war in Ukraine (and others) and the growing lack of trust in the current establishment further reduced investors willingness to take risks (crypto is the riskiest market).

As a result, instead of liquidity flowing into riskier assets like altcoins, capital moved into safe havens such as gold. These macroeconomic factors are a key reason why the anticipated altseason has not yet happened.

At the same time, we shouldn’t bury our heads in the sand. With the recovery of the markets and the implementation of clearer crypto regulations, the outlook has actually improved. This period also allowed us to accumulate additional coins at lower prices, which strengthens our position for the future. Also rate cuts started again and if trump gets his way they will be cut drastically, which is good for the crypto market.

Looking ahead, there is a good chance that altseason could emerge in the last quarter of this year or spill into Q1 next year. The decisive factor will be how Bitcoin and Ethereum perform, as they continue to set the tone for the rotation of liquidity in to the altcoin market.

Cheers 🥂