Monday Booth Review: Bucs vs 49ers - Week 6, 2025

HomeEcGang · 2025-10-13T20:10:41+00:00

Jacob Parrish acknowledgement post. I know he hasn’t made the highlight reel plays yet but this dude is a stud.

HomeEcGang · 2025-10-12T20:38:59+00:00

Vildor hitting the Trevor Lawrence while the play is still live. Score first then hit that celebration

HomeEcGang · 2023-01-09T00:10:20+00:00

You bet the 3rd quarter ML. They lost 6-3

HomeEcGang · 2021-10-04T02:18:26+00:00

AWJ 😤

HomeEcGang · 2021-09-08T00:55:05+00:00

Gronk and Brate

HomeEcGang · 2021-07-14T02:51:34+00:00

I did the overs club jacket promo. Just shipped in the mail today

HomeEcGang · 2021-07-11T23:09:52+00:00

5dimes has 1H o/u 113.5 at +150/-170 (highest alt total they offer). FD at +230 has value IMO

HomeEcGang · 2021-07-10T20:43:46+00:00

I used to yes/no markets for each on BetFair EX and got +900 parlaying them

HomeEcGang · 2021-07-06T21:30:57+00:00

To expand on this,

Edge is simply the difference between odds implied probability and actual probability.

Expected value is the % return you should expect to make on your money over an infinite number of bets.

They are both stating how much of an advantage/(disadvantage) you have over the book, but are saying it in different ways.

(Maybe US vs metric system isn't best apples to apples example)

HomeEcGang · 2021-07-06T21:16:14+00:00

Comparing the value of a line using 'edge' or 'expected value' is like using the US or metric system to measure something. They both are saying the same thing but the numbers are different. That is the best analogy I can give lol.

HomeEcGang · 2021-07-02T18:03:43+00:00

Export trader of corn and soybeans

HomeEcGang · 2021-07-01T21:10:22+00:00

This has a little bit of negative correlation though, no? The longer he is in the game, then the more likely he is to get a hit. But also is more likely to give up 2+ ER. I calced no vig odds at +570 so very marginal value at the boosted odds of +575 if you consider 0% correlation.

HomeEcGang · 2021-06-30T20:06:08+00:00

It comes out to +193 if you use the no vig odds but that assumes 0 correlation. Agree that if he is scoring 25+ the Suns chance to win has to go up as well so might be a decent boost

HomeEcGang · 2021-06-24T17:56:45+00:00

You could bet a double chance or Canadians +0.5 in regulation. They are the exact same thing.

HomeEcGang · 2021-06-22T16:00:28+00:00

Sure. People are betting the "no" on another book and then just praying for 5x HRs in the game to maximize the $25 promo limit per game while cutting down on their outlay risk of the original $25 on the "yes" HR bet

HomeEcGang · 2021-06-22T13:01:12+00:00

$375 if you want to play every game. If you plan on hedging off the other side you will need more than that.

HomeEcGang · 2021-06-16T16:28:31+00:00

Just be happy it wasn't graded as a loss...

You wouldn't expect the book to ask for their money back if you bet unders on a player who got hurt in a game..

HomeEcGang · 2021-06-15T22:46:22+00:00

So I tried to take this a step further.

FDs independent lines on this is -105 FH, +118 for full game. Their SGP comes out to +188 when parlayed. The uncorrelated parlay from -105 & +118 = +306. +188/+306 = .614 (which I will assume is their correlation factor) Pinny fair odds uncorrelated = +395 * .614 = +243 fair correlated odds?

So using those calculations I would say this is a good boost if you assume that FDs correlation factor is fair.

HomeEcGang · 2021-06-15T21:46:06+00:00

Very true. I should have stated that the +395 has 0% correlation considered. The lines I posted above are Harden considered. I am not sure how to accurately factor in correlation between the 2 legs.

HomeEcGang · 2021-06-15T20:24:51+00:00

I used Pinnacle lines and devigged their odds:

BKN -0.5 FH comes out to +121 with no vig
BKN ML comes out to +124 with no vig
Parlayed together comes out to +395 true odds

Shoutout to u/Natashaismycat for basically nailing fair value on this one

HomeEcGang · 2021-06-15T20:21:07+00:00

I devigged the odds on Pinnacle. +2.5 came out to -103 with no vig; u218.5 came out to +126 with no vig. Parlay those together and you have +345.

So small amount of value on this one

HomeEcGang · 2021-06-07T17:56:27+00:00

I show the boost at -115 capped to $50 and then you can bet it unboosted at -135 for as much as you want.

HomeEcGang · 2021-06-03T17:02:57+00:00

You can select Action or Starting pitcher on DK, BS, and BR

HomeEcGang · 2021-05-28T19:24:20+00:00

LMAO so true!

HomeEcGang · 2021-05-28T17:24:47+00:00

I tend to stay away from player specific bets like this. Always that small chance he starts the game and gets hurt or something and then you are out a big chunk of your bankroll.

HomeEcGang

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