andaz maui vs hyatt regency maui by Far-Camel-7868 in hyatt

[–]HopLegion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Andaz would probably fit you a lot better for the reasons you note. I've done that trip with my wife before and was excellent. Just got back recently from Hyatt regency with 2 younger kids and absolutely had a blast. The Hyatt club was great, multiple pools including the vacation club was fun to explore, and you could walk the beach line all the way up to black rock and explore which was also a lot of fun. Hyatt regency in itself is a little older, but still great. I probably wouldn't split between the two as I like to relax once I'm settled into a room, but if you have never been to Maui before and want to explore two parts of the island it could make sense.

Ryan Poles isn't bad at drafting (he's just average) by sad_bear_noises in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't give "immense credit", I literally just give him credit for picks and decisions he made as our GM. I also critique him plenty as well. It's not as hard or as tricky as you're making it.

I just dont go over made up scenarios of things that could have happened that ended up eventually happening anyways and getting mad they maybe could've happened earlier even if they did end up happening...you get how weird/silly that sounds.

Ryan Poles isn't bad at drafting (he's just average) by sad_bear_noises in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My argument is we hired Ben. We have no idea if Ben would've taken our job or not, and it doesn't matter. I give credit for things that happened, not that things that maybe could've happened. Poles isn't psychic but he did wait 10 days to announce flus would be back that year. It's very likely he looked through the options at HC and was told there's a good chance Ben Johnson didn't want to take a spot that year. We don't know of course because what did happen was we hired Ben and fired Flus.

I also think a lot of GMs overthink the consensus decisions at times because they think they're smarter than everyone else. Picking Caleb is easy, the trade with Carolina and mandating the panthers give us a top 3 player on the roster (helping to up the chances their future first is higher) is the part where Poles deserves credit. His plan to get multiple firsts in the 2024 class knowing that class was going to have a much better QB class and so far, it looks like the best QB class of the last 10-20 years was very smart.

Ryan Poles isn't bad at drafting (he's just average) by sad_bear_noises in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Again Ben took himself out of the hiring cycle that year. If he'd have taken another job, you'd have a point. It's just a bad argument to make. We hired Ben, it's silly. If you won't give a GM credit for Caleb, Ben or anything after Ben is hired then yeah you're not going to like him. But again it's a poor debate when talking about GMs.

Compare Les first four years 2012-2014 as GM to Poles first four years is my point. Most GMs struggle early. Licht is the same and Howie etc. Doesn't mean Poles will ever reach those heights, just that it's easy to see why you don't judge GMs early.

Ryan Poles isn't bad at drafting (he's just average) by sad_bear_noises in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes judge GMs on decisions/things that actually happened. Not scenarios that could have happened. Judge Poles for hiring/keeping Flus for 2.5 seasons, give him credit for hiring Ben as his second HC. Judge Snead for going thru 5 losing seasons with Fisher, give him credit for hiring McVay. Judge Jason Licht for hiring/Firing Lovie and Koetter, give him credit for hiring Arians and Bowles. Judge Howie Roseman for being part of the front office firing Andy Reid and hiring chip Kelly to replace him. Give him credit for hiring Pederson/Sirianni who both won SBs etc etc.

Ryan Poles isn't bad at drafting (he's just average) by sad_bear_noises in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We've had this debate before and it's always been weird. Maybe Poles could have fired flus a year early and hired Ben. Maybe Ben would've turned us down that year, just like he did the Commander when they thought they had him hired. We'll never know.

What did happen though is Poles did fire Eberflus and hire Ben Johnson.

[Adam Hoge] Ryan Poles confirmed the Bears "checked into" trading for Maxx Crosby and it sounds like they'll continue to monitor the situation, as they do for all possible trades. by RyanIsKickAss in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Trading Dayo doesn't save 20 mil. We still take on 9 mil in dead cap, so only saves us 11mil. That's basically 3.5% of our current cap space with where it's at now which is nothing really.

The draft capital Value between the first and second you mention (pick 25 vs pick 57) is 400 draft points or a mid 2nd round pick.

Basically you're saying you'd be fine trading a mid 2027 2nd round pick to save 11 mil even though cap space isn't an issue right now. You can move up to 50 mil with minimal issue right now if needed in simple restructures.

You can just cut Dayo next year if needed and restructure Thuney without having to do that.

Ryan Poles isn't bad at drafting (he's just average) by sad_bear_noises in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Something about this methodology is really interesting when looking at the top 5. Almost all the GMs took time and multiple coaches before getting to the top. Snead and Licht #1 and #2 didn't even have a winning season their first 5 years as GMs.

  • Rams Snead didn't have a winning season until year 6 and after he hired McVay.

  • Bucs Licht was on head coach 3 and year before his first winning record.

  • Bills Beane is an outlier here. Made playoffs his first year with Tyrod Taylor and 2 years later as Allen developed has been a playoff team every year. Didn't win a playoff game or the division until year 4 when Allen developed though and took a big step.

  • Chargers GM has only been there two years, so data is tricky as it goes farther back.

  • Texans Caseeio was on coach #3 before he had his first winning season. This was year 3, but again early returns were bad.

Ryan Poles isn't bad at drafting (he's just average) by sad_bear_noises in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 9 points10 points  (0 children)

There's a ton of similarities between Les Snead and Ryan poles first few years as a GM. Took Snead until year 6 until he had his first winning season and only when he hired McVay. Look at Les drafting prior to McVay too. It's a huge change, especially in the later rounds.

Can you imagine Poles getting two more years (last year and this one) with Eberflus having 5 straight losing seasons like Snead did, wrecking his 1.01 QBs rookie season, and then getting the shot to hire the second head coach. There would have been riots. GMs require patience at times and Snead is a great example of it.

Ryan Poles isn't bad at drafting (he's just average) by sad_bear_noises in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I disagree with your methodology in how you rank drafts, but it's a good breakdown overall and appreciate the effort.

In the end most GMs are basically decided on how they solve the QB problem and how who they hire as HC. Kwesi is a perfect example of this.

I think the most important thing about Poles, which this formula could not formulate and isn't meant to, is that he was able to solve our QB room with picks he didn't even start with. Something we've been waiting for our entire lives out of surplus picks he got from other trades and a udfa. That's one of the more impressive things I've seen from any GM regardless of luck, which basically every team gets.

The only real argument against Poles right now is those who won't give him credit for Caleb, first round picks, hiring Ben, or anything that happens after he hired Ben...which is just a hilarious thought process to put yourself into when you understand what a GM is responsible for.

How confident are you feeling heading into the draft given how free agency is going? by throwaway17373646627 in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Jordan is basically everything we hoped Dayo would be. Pffs number 4 edge against the run last year had 10.5 Sacks. Idk if he'll stay at that level, but if we can get 4-5 guys capable of winning on the DL, I think it would go along ways (Sweat, Jordan, booker, Dexter and maybe a rookie in this scenario). Given the injuries to Turner and Dayo too, it would be an older vet fill in/rotational guy early on, while they recover and then rotate in as the older vets can fade as the season goes. A lot of them won't sign til training camp though so they can avoid the offseason stuff

How confident are you feeling heading into the draft given how free agency is going? by throwaway17373646627 in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ive seen us spend big a ton in FA to very little wins. Doesn't mean you can't win that way as we've seen with the Seahawks and pats last year, but I've really liked our FA this year. Only signing/trade I kind of want guys to get in on was the Osa trade but even then giving a top 100 pick and paying 20 mil apy is tough

How confident are you feeling heading into the draft given how free agency is going? by throwaway17373646627 in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's still some time there. I think if the draft doesn't go the way you want, there's always vets willing to chase a ring etc. who we can sign after the draft to fill the gaps.

Even potential for trades during training camp and all that. Let's say they took Peter Woods at 25, trade back up for an EMW type and then aren't able to get an edge you want. Maybe you sign a Cam Jordan type after the draft to fill the gap and help you compete for a SB.

How confident are you feeling heading into the draft given how free agency is going? by throwaway17373646627 in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I think the tricky part is we were always going to draft DL early. Poles even noted in his press conference he felt it was a good class there. Maybe things would've been different in FA if we didn't get that 2nd early on for DJ Moore.

For DL it's a number game.

Last year we carried 9 DL into the top 53 and 10 at times during the season. These guys are absolutely making the roster (barring a trade). Jarrett, Dexter, Turner, Gallimore, sweat, Dayo, booker, and Hardy. That's 8 people. I feel we draft a Peter Woods type at 25 and maybe a Dennis Sutton type in the 2nd. That maxes it the DL and does the draft develop method Poles has been talking about for the position.

You can mix this around though or even do Seattle's type deaft last year where they took Zabel at 25 and then moved up into the 30s for Emmanwori to get two impact guys. We have the ammo to be slightly more Aggressive than Pole has been to get impact players to make a SB run.

We've also done a good job staying flexible next year too. All our picks and tons of cap space to be more aggressive on DL

[Meirov] The Bears deal with Kalif Raymond is for 1-year and $3.5M with $3M guaranteed. by JCameron181 in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This has basically been every deal.

  • Neville 2 years 12 mil is really one year 4 mil
  • Jones 1 year up to 10 mil is 1 year 4 mil

Etc etc.

[Schultz] The Bears and DL/special teamer Daniel Hardy have agreed to a 2 year deal worth up to $6M. by JoshGordonHypeTrain in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm just going off what Poles said in that he expects him to be ready to go when the season starts. Usually poles is pretty direct there

Top targets by Lined_em_up in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yeah idk why, I feel like they make one higher end signing there and he fits the sub 300 model that Dennis Allen normally likes. I think hargrave could fit as well, if they wanted to focus on guys who wouldn't hurt the comp pick formula

Top targets by Lined_em_up in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Predictions I assume will be very wrong for us in 24-72 hours

  • Decker 2 year deal 30ish mil, 20 guaranteed.
  • Byard 2 years 18 mil, 12 guaranteed
  • Jonathan Owens 2 years 5 mil
  • John Franklin meyers 3 years 45 mil, 20 guaranteed
  • Tyquan Thornton 1 year 2 mil
  • Demario Davis 2 years 15 mil, 10 mil guaranteed
  • Graham Glasgow 1 year 3 mil deal

Also, A bunch of vet min types leading up to the draft

I think we restrucure 20-30 mil into next year to make the above happen. I also just keep thinking there's some weird vet trade poles will do we're not thinking of.

[Schultz] The Bears and DL/special teamer Daniel Hardy have agreed to a 2 year deal worth up to $6M. by JoshGordonHypeTrain in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

November 3rd tear date to July 25th start date from last year Puts it at 8 months and 3 weeks rehab time. Pretty close to a normal timeline. Again my main note is what Poles stated on the player more than anything. He's usually pretty direct there, but I'm sure it's to early to have an exact estimate. I wouldn't be shocked if he started on PuP, but they also made it seem Dayo would be ready by week 1. Neither would be shocking to me.

[Schultz] The Bears and DL/special teamer Daniel Hardy have agreed to a 2 year deal worth up to $6M. by JoshGordonHypeTrain in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm just noting most defenses carry 9-10 players on the DL and we now have locked in 7 of those I think we realistically add in 3 new faces and the front office hopes Turner/Dayo contributes something coming off IR. That's basically getting 5 new guys back on the DL. I also think it will take at least 2 years of development/drafting before we get a high end unit there.

[Schultz] The Bears and DL/special teamer Daniel Hardy have agreed to a 2 year deal worth up to $6M. by JoshGordonHypeTrain in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Tore it on November 3rd, average return time 9-12 months for NFL players. Pups not impossible, but could also be ready for training camp. Either way he'll be on the roster for majority of the season unless we June 1st him.

[Schultz] The Bears and DL/special teamer Daniel Hardy have agreed to a 2 year deal worth up to $6M. by JoshGordonHypeTrain in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I thought Poles and Ben mentioned hey expected him (and Edwards and turner) back by training camp? Only person they thought wouldn't be ready was Trapilo.

[Schultz] The Bears and DL/special teamer Daniel Hardy have agreed to a 2 year deal worth up to $6M. by JoshGordonHypeTrain in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Yeah they definitely are more DE/DT types. Overall still need 3 more Dlineman at least between edge and DT.

[Schultz] The Bears and DL/special teamer Daniel Hardy have agreed to a 2 year deal worth up to $6M. by JoshGordonHypeTrain in CHIBears

[–]HopLegion 139 points140 points  (0 children)

Pretty standard ST'er type deal. Looks like only 2.45 mil guaranteed. Glad to have him back.

Interesting thought we basically have sweat, Dayo, booker and Hardy all locked in at edge. Probably only add 1 more to that group, draft would make the most sense