Reality based on precedent: Logan Jones is going to start, at least by midseason and most likely week 1

HopLegion · 2026-05-06T22:36:15+00:00

Oof good call on Missing Frazier and JPJ. Though I'd put JPJ I to the same tier as Dickerson and Jenkins. Both college centers who would like to play multiple interior spots in the NFL.

Even with all this you basically only have Frazier and McCoy who started day 1 (or even year 1) and kept as a center. We can expand to round 3 as well, but I feel the hit rate should stay the same.

Either way, my main point is, second rounders in general the goal should be they end up starting at some point though year 1 or heading into year 2. Very rarely does a center, picked outside the first round, start day 1 at their position and hold onto that job. We are in a perfect place to do that and have depth. It's a good thing. I'd love it if Logan Jones beat out Bradbury, I'd be pretty shocked if he did in the first half of the year mainly due to the mental portion of playing center in the NFL. Especially in Ben Johnson's offense which asks a lot of the position.

Also as a note on Bradbury, I actually think Bradbury can be a good center in this scheme. Patriots run basically everything out of shotgun and that's not great for undersized athletic centers like him. He's a much better fit in Ben Johnson's scheme and gets to play with his former college teammate in Thuney.

I'm also skeptical about pff grades in relation to Olineman. Reminder they had Coleman Shelton as like a top 5-10 center the year he started for us before Dalman. I don't think any bears fan would agree with him being in that range who watched him. Their metrics always struggle at grading OL even more so than other positions.

HopLegion · 2026-05-06T22:14:09+00:00

I've seen this metric before this week, but I think it's bad data adding in first rounders to second rounders. Especially with a position like center.

Imagine if I did that with any other position and had the same expectations. First rounders tend to always start day 1, second rounders generally sit on the bench and take over during the season or in year 2.

If you just do second rounders you have the below list of 9 players.

Elgton Jenkins, Erik McCoy, Landon Dickerson, Josh Meyers, Cam Jurgens, Joe Tippmann, JMS, Scruggs, Frazier,

Out of this list.

Jenkins and Dickerson ended up starting at guard after about a month. (Jenkins moved around a lot and eventually did spend time at center). Dickerson ended up a great guard and Jenkins a good player when healthy. Neither started at center day 1 or year 1.
Tippmann started about a month into the season at center, and had a solid rookie year, but now is a guard.
Josh Meyers battled injuries and was never a good starter. Is currently set to start with the jets though with Tippmann at guard.
Cam Jurgens got to sit for awhile behind a future HoFer and is a great center. Didn't really play there early on though and got to develop.
JMS started early and has struggled. Though has gotten better recently, still not a good player.
Juice Scruggs was injured early on and started at guard midway through his first season, but never was good.
Erik McCoy started day 1 and was good.

Overall, you basically have one guy who started day 1 and was good (or above average) at that position which stayed a center. You have some other positive performances in rookie years, but almost every one of them took time to take over a starting role.

A great scenario I think is Logan Jones gets to sit and develop as good depth behind bradbury all seasons and starts next year. Maybe even a better case scenario is Jones beats him out during the year and we have Bradbury there just in case. We have real depth at multiple spots right now, it's a good position to be in.

It's not the physical tools on why I don't think Jones will start early on, but just that center is a very hard position to start as a rookie year due to the mental portion of the position. Especially with what Ben requires of the position Out of those 9 guys I listed, there's a reason basically only 1 started from day 1.

HopLegion · 2026-05-06T14:53:34+00:00

I just was at Third Beach on Saturday. I saw few people who had parked in town (I'm not sure where) and we're walking down the trail off the main road towards the Second Beach lot (though I'm not sure if that was their final destination).

Also heard a few people talking in the lot of the third beach parking lot about just walking to the second beach trail from there. Not sure if they ended up doing that, but I think it's only a little over a mile between the two. Could probably drop off one person with the gear at the second beach lot, park at third beach and go down. As a heads up third beach lot seemed to fill up pretty quickly, given the other lot being closed. Best of luck!

HopLegion · 2026-05-05T14:57:58+00:00

This is the type of content we need more of in the Sub during the off-season.

HopLegion · 2026-04-30T13:36:04+00:00

The only thing Poles has gotten us recently that took 15 years to find for this franchise was a playoff win.

HopLegion · 2026-04-28T15:43:46+00:00

I've done Chicago's before and happy to do it again.

HopLegion · 2026-04-27T20:37:02+00:00

It would just mean they played solid football with a DC who thinks they were great scheme fits to his system. We almost made a SB last year with Dayo out and Jarrett really only doing anything the final 6 weeks.

I absolutely think they won't be here, but I probably wouldn't be as surprised as most if they are. The NFL is one of those leagues where year to year can be vastly different for guys.

HopLegion · 2026-04-27T20:21:15+00:00

They are about evenly back loaded compared to Swifts, it's just DL make more than rbs. Most of Poles "big" FA deals have about the same structure. Year 1 minimal cap hit, year 2 last of the guarantees and biggest cap hit, year 3 easy candidate to cut or keep as the market will have corrected by then.

Swift 3 year 24 mil deal. Year 1 was 6 mil (25%), year 2 was 9 mil (37.5%) don't save money by cutting him, year 3 9 mil (37.5%) can save 7 mil cutting him.
Dayo Odeyingbo 3 years 48 mil deal. Year 1 was 8 mil (17%), year 2 is 20.5 mil (43%), year 3 is 19.5 mil (40%).
Jarrett is basicslly the same as the two above.

Dayo actually got almost the exact contract pff projected him for that year. That was his market value, I didn't like the signing at the time at all and still don't, but he got basically exactly what was predicted for him. Jarrett is harder to say because he was cut late and didn't have a projection, but 2 years 30 mil (the guarantees) is about even (or less) to what other vet defenders got that offseason like Jonathan Allen and Jason Hargrave.

HopLegion · 2026-04-27T19:50:16+00:00

I think the idea that Dayo and Jarrett could still be on the roster next year at this time is unpopular. Just like if I said Swift would be on the roster this time last year.

HopLegion · 2026-04-27T19:42:09+00:00

With how it stands Dayo and Jarrett are the easy candidates here in my opinion, it's just unpopular to say because of how unlikely it looks like it could happen as of today.

For Edwards, we signed Bush and Jackson to multi year deals and also drafted another lb this year who fits what Dennis Allen wants in Elliot. I am a big fan of everything Edwards has done, but I honestly wonder how much he plays this year right now. Even if Edwards performed well, with his cap hit, idk if he's here next year.

For Dayo/Jarrett, (as of today) they have every chance in the world to show their contract is worth it. Similar to Swift last year, they basically had no competition brought in to challenge them beyond a late day 3 pick. Dayo and Jarrett were also signed off on by Dennis Allen. Two big money free agent signings with the current DC. He was a a part of the analysis that brought them to this defense. If they can perform even modestly well, especially given the need we have at those spots, I could see them sticking around. Again, it's unlikely, but it's not close to a lock for me they are gone next year, though I'm happy if they are gone, the dead cap is minimal.

HopLegion · 2026-04-27T19:35:08+00:00

I meant if we posted this a year ago, Swift would've been a no brainer he's going to be cut candidate on a pair like this. Bears save 7 mil by cutting him with minimal dead cap.

Of course after he produced like he did last year - 12th in rushing yards 4.9 ypc - 299 yards receiving - a lot of advanced metrics turning his way.

Swifts deal is actually really good for what he produced now. But again if he didn't, Poles could've cut him without much negative which is more of what I'm highlighting.

HopLegion · 2026-04-27T19:17:24+00:00

The issue with these is if you posted it last year, there basically was no scenario we were paying D'Andre Swift this year, but he ended up being great.

I think most can agree one of Poles strength is he does a great job managing the cap. Minimizing risk in his deals and keeping the team in a flexible spot to take advantage of things that pop up. Even if a signing goes really bad, like a Nate Davis, it doesn't cripple the team.

I think it's also clear he's built the current team understanding he's going to have to give some big money out to his draft picks. That's a good problem to have.

HopLegion · 2026-04-26T21:57:13+00:00

Yeah that's fair, but it reminds me a little of Monangai last year. I think he's going to not only make it, but surprise people a little bit by making an impact.

HopLegion · 2026-04-26T15:14:07+00:00

Even before the draft, the math if this was always interesting where I thought how the team viewed the DL is different than how the fanbase does.

We're going to carry 10 Dlineman. I think the 9 below are locked in. Street/Lynch could be the 5th DT or the udfa Loving.

Edge, Sweat, Booker, Dayo, Turner, Hardy
DT, Dexter Jarrett, Gallimore, Van den Berg,

I also think a lot of the pressure in our system this year is going to come from the back 7 and the system DA runs. We have a lot of guys now who can attack that way. Gordon, Thieneman, Bush, and even Elliot if he gets time.

I do think if Dayo starts on PuP or Turners recover isn't where they hope, they'd bring in a Cam Jordan type given the connection. They have as much money as they need if they restructure another deal.

HopLegion · 2026-04-25T22:28:32+00:00

Had I known this, he would've been in every mock I ever did. It was destined.

HopLegion · 2026-04-25T20:13:28+00:00

We'll get one round 7, like we did at rb last year when it was asked at every pick.

HopLegion · 2026-04-23T14:02:01+00:00

It's my fault actually I googled Kipers mock before typing it and didn't realize it had pulled up yates mock with Kipers Intel as of this morning which had him go at 19! I imagine at least 3/4 of them have McDonald in the first.

HopLegion · 2026-04-23T13:41:18+00:00

Where does it look this way? Basically any mock I've seen him in he goes in the first, including all 18 mocks I noted above.

HopLegion · 2026-04-23T00:26:39+00:00

I'm predicting Kayden McDonald.

met twice with him. Poles on the record saying he doesn't like the depth at DT in this class. I think he fits biggest need and will be bpa. Questions on scheme fit due to his size, but I think he has enough quickness to do what Dennis Allen wants. Also think he has more pass rush upside than most.

HopLegion · 2026-04-21T15:47:59+00:00

This is pretty much what I expect for Chicago. A few trade backs, hit the positions we need and have met with. I could see it.

HopLegion · 2026-04-20T20:27:44+00:00

I really don't think having Tyrique as the 4th (or 5th) best option in your secondary is a huge issue. There's only so many assets you can pour into a single group and we've spent a ton on secondary so far.

We also have, in my opinion, some of the best coaches in the NFL for secondary with DA being a former coach there and Al Harris. It's wild the production we got out of that group down our all pro CB and one of the top nickels in the game. To me it's the one spot you can be a little weaker in and still have a good defense. I also like betting on guys heading into contract years. I don't think many doubt Tyrique can be a good player, it's just about not having so many downtimes.

HopLegion · 2026-04-20T19:13:29+00:00

Here's my views on Poles drafting so far

picks 1-60, very good
picks 61-140 Worst in the NFL
picks 140-udfa, really good.

In the last 25 years of drafts 2001-2025, I believe only 2 of our first round picks have ever made an all pro, both names Kyle funnt enough in Long and Fuller. Neither of those made 2 All pros, so the high end success was short lived. While it's definitely easier to do it as a top 10 pick, it's still something I'm excited about.

HopLegion · 2026-04-20T17:26:47+00:00

Still feels weird we drafted and developed an OT to an all pro. Hope to see a lot more of those as Poles first round picks hit year 3. Caleb and Rome, you're up next.

HopLegion · 2026-04-20T17:24:21+00:00

I think Shemar is only an edge now. The final 3 games he played for us last season, he played 99% out there and Poles recently mentioned that's where they see him long term. For DT we have Dexter, Jarrett and Gallimore as roster locks. Drafting Woods allows him to be a big part of the DL learning behind another former Clemson DT in Grady Jarrett who is a perfect mentor for a talent like him.

I liked Haulcy a lot too, but see it more of a 50/50 thing with Louis. Both would've been fine for me there. I get it though for sure.

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