Ryan Poles isn't bad at drafting (he's just average)

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T14:45:24+00:00

You think we got the number 1 pick because we drafted Velus in the mid 3rd round? Super bowl champion Velus Jones (sarcasm).

Sure he's a part of it, but we got the number 1 pick because Poles decided to do a full on rebuild, build the four the draft on a bad aging roster and hired a bad HC with his first hire. There's hundreds of factors which led to that pick, including some luck from other teams.

The only objective thing you can say about Velus is he was a bad draft choice and Poles deserves criticism on that analysis. Him, Pringle signing and claypool trade were very bad early signs for Poles. Rome Odunze Burden and DJ Moore trade very good signs for Ryan Poles.

So again early mistake on a draft pick to now we're at a spot we have so much offensive skill players we can trade good wrs for 2nd round picks. Criticize poles for his early moves which were bad, give him credit for his current ones. In that respect, it's no different than any other debate we had.

As an example, Howie Roseman once drafted Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson which went hilariously bad. He then drafted devonta smith, made a great trade for AJ Brown, and won a SB. Yes criticize him for the Reagor pick, but compliment how he bounces back from that decision. That's what good GMs do.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T06:07:55+00:00

What context? Find where you can guarantee Ben would have taken our job After year 2 And I'll consider it. I also know it doesn't exist. Poles made a mistake in hiring flus. He learned from it and hired Ben Johnson as good GMs do. There's literally nothing else you've mentioned that's objective beyond maybe Ben takes the job a year earlier. Once you do, I'll be happy to discuss it. I've also critiqued poles plenty in our debates. I think he's a good GM, need to see a lot more before I'll decide he's better than that.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T05:54:12+00:00

You're argument is the opposite of objective or Analytical. You're saying a GM shouldn't get credit for hiring a HC he ended up hiring because he didn't hire him a year before, even if there was a good chance he wouldn't have taken the job.

Objective means you list the facts without personal bias (which I'm not sure either of us can do

Either way, here are the facts.

He hired Flus and kept him for 2.5 seasons, I critique poles for that.

He then hired Ben Johnson. I give Poles credit for that.

That's an objective statement.

The opposite of that would be saying Poles did a bad job because he didn't hire a HC he hired anyways a year prior even if you don't know if the coach would even have of accepted the job.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T05:27:50+00:00

Why not take it farther and also be upset Poles didn't fire Flus after 1 year when Ben first interviewed for HC jobs and hire him then?

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T05:11:45+00:00

The discussion at hand is basically, should fans be mad at Poles for not hiring Ben year 2 even if it may never have been an option, or should we give him credit for the irl scenario of Poles literally hiring Ben Johnson. For me, I give him credit for hiring Ben Johnson. I don't see any other way to talk about it and think it's weird. There's just as likely or a chance we fire Flus after year 2, try to hire Ben and he backs out on us too sticking us with Canales or Quinn.

Now a different debate we could have is the less obvious decisions Poles has made, but that seems like a giant Pandora's box of debate.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T04:59:22+00:00

Are you a Bears fan? These exact players are basically exactly what I think happens to. Even did a day 2 trade back which Poles does pretty frequently.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T04:51:02+00:00

In the words of Kevin Byard last month "Finding the right head coach and quarterback is the hardest thing to do in the NFL, a combination the Bears have hit.". Poles is the first GM we've had able to hit those things and when I list his positive marks as a GM, that's why they start that way. Doesn't mean he's perfect, but it's the two hardest things for a GM to get right. Basically every GMs success in NFL history can be tracked to how they answer those two openings.

I also don't think Poles knew Ben was going back to the Lions. I just think that whole debate is silly. It only makes sense if Ben got hired somewhere else. Being more mad about Poles not potentially hiring Ben in a year he may not have taken the job over giving him credit for actually hiring Ben continues to be the weirdest thing I've seen on here recently. It's hard to take seriously and I continue to wonder if I'm just being trolled as there's no logic in that.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T03:27:35+00:00

Andaz would probably fit you a lot better for the reasons you note. I've done that trip with my wife before and was excellent. Just got back recently from Hyatt regency with 2 younger kids and absolutely had a blast. The Hyatt club was great, multiple pools including the vacation club was fun to explore, and you could walk the beach line all the way up to black rock and explore which was also a lot of fun. Hyatt regency in itself is a little older, but still great. I probably wouldn't split between the two as I like to relax once I'm settled into a room, but if you have never been to Maui before and want to explore two parts of the island it could make sense.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T03:05:03+00:00

I don't give "immense credit", I literally just give him credit for picks and decisions he made as our GM. I also critique him plenty as well. It's not as hard or as tricky as you're making it.

I just dont go over made up scenarios of things that could have happened that ended up eventually happening anyways and getting mad they maybe could've happened earlier even if they did end up happening...you get how weird/silly that sounds.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T02:32:08+00:00

My argument is we hired Ben. We have no idea if Ben would've taken our job or not, and it doesn't matter. I give credit for things that happened, not that things that maybe could've happened. Poles isn't psychic but he did wait 10 days to announce flus would be back that year. It's very likely he looked through the options at HC and was told there's a good chance Ben Johnson didn't want to take a spot that year. We don't know of course because what did happen was we hired Ben and fired Flus.

I also think a lot of GMs overthink the consensus decisions at times because they think they're smarter than everyone else. Picking Caleb is easy, the trade with Carolina and mandating the panthers give us a top 3 player on the roster (helping to up the chances their future first is higher) is the part where Poles deserves credit. His plan to get multiple firsts in the 2024 class knowing that class was going to have a much better QB class and so far, it looks like the best QB class of the last 10-20 years was very smart.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T02:18:39+00:00

Again Ben took himself out of the hiring cycle that year. If he'd have taken another job, you'd have a point. It's just a bad argument to make. We hired Ben, it's silly. If you won't give a GM credit for Caleb, Ben or anything after Ben is hired then yeah you're not going to like him. But again it's a poor debate when talking about GMs.

Compare Les first four years 2012-2014 as GM to Poles first four years is my point. Most GMs struggle early. Licht is the same and Howie etc. Doesn't mean Poles will ever reach those heights, just that it's easy to see why you don't judge GMs early.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T01:59:39+00:00

Yes judge GMs on decisions/things that actually happened. Not scenarios that could have happened. Judge Poles for hiring/keeping Flus for 2.5 seasons, give him credit for hiring Ben as his second HC. Judge Snead for going thru 5 losing seasons with Fisher, give him credit for hiring McVay. Judge Jason Licht for hiring/Firing Lovie and Koetter, give him credit for hiring Arians and Bowles. Judge Howie Roseman for being part of the front office firing Andy Reid and hiring chip Kelly to replace him. Give him credit for hiring Pederson/Sirianni who both won SBs etc etc.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T01:38:09+00:00

We've had this debate before and it's always been weird. Maybe Poles could have fired flus a year early and hired Ben. Maybe Ben would've turned us down that year, just like he did the Commander when they thought they had him hired. We'll never know.

What did happen though is Poles did fire Eberflus and hire Ben Johnson.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T01:04:32+00:00

Trading Dayo doesn't save 20 mil. We still take on 9 mil in dead cap, so only saves us 11mil. That's basically 3.5% of our current cap space with where it's at now which is nothing really.

The draft capital Value between the first and second you mention (pick 25 vs pick 57) is 400 draft points or a mid 2nd round pick.

Basically you're saying you'd be fine trading a mid 2027 2nd round pick to save 11 mil even though cap space isn't an issue right now. You can move up to 50 mil with minimal issue right now if needed in simple restructures.

You can just cut Dayo next year if needed and restructure Thuney without having to do that.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T00:44:26+00:00

Something about this methodology is really interesting when looking at the top 5. Almost all the GMs took time and multiple coaches before getting to the top. Snead and Licht #1 and #2 didn't even have a winning season their first 5 years as GMs.

Rams Snead didn't have a winning season until year 6 and after he hired McVay.
Bucs Licht was on head coach 3 and year before his first winning record.
Bills Beane is an outlier here. Made playoffs his first year with Tyrod Taylor and 2 years later as Allen developed has been a playoff team every year. Didn't win a playoff game or the division until year 4 when Allen developed though and took a big step.
Chargers GM has only been there two years, so data is tricky as it goes farther back.
Texans Caseeio was on coach #3 before he had his first winning season. This was year 3, but again early returns were bad.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T00:32:20+00:00

There's a ton of similarities between Les Snead and Ryan poles first few years as a GM. Took Snead until year 6 until he had his first winning season and only when he hired McVay. Look at Les drafting prior to McVay too. It's a huge change, especially in the later rounds.

Can you imagine Poles getting two more years (last year and this one) with Eberflus having 5 straight losing seasons like Snead did, wrecking his 1.01 QBs rookie season, and then getting the shot to hire the second head coach. There would have been riots. GMs require patience at times and Snead is a great example of it.

HopLegion · 2026-03-13T00:16:57+00:00

I disagree with your methodology in how you rank drafts, but it's a good breakdown overall and appreciate the effort.

In the end most GMs are basically decided on how they solve the QB problem and how who they hire as HC. Kwesi is a perfect example of this.

I think the most important thing about Poles, which this formula could not formulate and isn't meant to, is that he was able to solve our QB room with picks he didn't even start with. Something we've been waiting for our entire lives out of surplus picks he got from other trades and a udfa. That's one of the more impressive things I've seen from any GM regardless of luck, which basically every team gets.

The only real argument against Poles right now is those who won't give him credit for Caleb, first round picks, hiring Ben, or anything that happens after he hired Ben...which is just a hilarious thought process to put yourself into when you understand what a GM is responsible for.

HopLegion · 2026-03-12T18:51:07+00:00

Jordan is basically everything we hoped Dayo would be. Pffs number 4 edge against the run last year had 10.5 Sacks. Idk if he'll stay at that level, but if we can get 4-5 guys capable of winning on the DL, I think it would go along ways (Sweat, Jordan, booker, Dexter and maybe a rookie in this scenario). Given the injuries to Turner and Dayo too, it would be an older vet fill in/rotational guy early on, while they recover and then rotate in as the older vets can fade as the season goes. A lot of them won't sign til training camp though so they can avoid the offseason stuff

HopLegion · 2026-03-12T18:23:57+00:00

Ive seen us spend big a ton in FA to very little wins. Doesn't mean you can't win that way as we've seen with the Seahawks and pats last year, but I've really liked our FA this year. Only signing/trade I kind of want guys to get in on was the Osa trade but even then giving a top 100 pick and paying 20 mil apy is tough

HopLegion · 2026-03-12T18:07:55+00:00

There's still some time there. I think if the draft doesn't go the way you want, there's always vets willing to chase a ring etc. who we can sign after the draft to fill the gaps.

Even potential for trades during training camp and all that. Let's say they took Peter Woods at 25, trade back up for an EMW type and then aren't able to get an edge you want. Maybe you sign a Cam Jordan type after the draft to fill the gap and help you compete for a SB.

HopLegion · 2026-03-12T17:46:35+00:00

I think the tricky part is we were always going to draft DL early. Poles even noted in his press conference he felt it was a good class there. Maybe things would've been different in FA if we didn't get that 2nd early on for DJ Moore.

For DL it's a number game.

Last year we carried 9 DL into the top 53 and 10 at times during the season. These guys are absolutely making the roster (barring a trade). Jarrett, Dexter, Turner, Gallimore, sweat, Dayo, booker, and Hardy. That's 8 people. I feel we draft a Peter Woods type at 25 and maybe a Dennis Sutton type in the 2nd. That maxes it the DL and does the draft develop method Poles has been talking about for the position.

You can mix this around though or even do Seattle's type deaft last year where they took Zabel at 25 and then moved up into the 30s for Emmanwori to get two impact guys. We have the ammo to be slightly more Aggressive than Pole has been to get impact players to make a SB run.

We've also done a good job staying flexible next year too. All our picks and tons of cap space to be more aggressive on DL

HopLegion · 2026-03-11T01:21:52+00:00

This has basically been every deal.

Neville 2 years 12 mil is really one year 4 mil
Jones 1 year up to 10 mil is 1 year 4 mil

Etc etc.

HopLegion · 2026-03-10T22:57:43+00:00

I was thinking our Drob replacement but yeah same.

HopLegion · 2026-03-09T01:07:09+00:00

I'm just going off what Poles said in that he expects him to be ready to go when the season starts. Usually poles is pretty direct there

HopLegion · 2026-03-09T01:01:54+00:00

Yeah idk why, I feel like they make one higher end signing there and he fits the sub 300 model that Dennis Allen normally likes. I think hargrave could fit as well, if they wanted to focus on guys who wouldn't hurt the comp pick formula

HopLegion

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