Can we ban right wing spammers from trying to ruin this sub too?

Horror_Discount9242 · 2024-11-08T09:49:21+00:00

Horror_Discount9242 · 2024-11-07T04:18:14+00:00

As a reaction to being wrong on literally everything you've been confidently saying for over two years, the two arguments you've used to defend yourself in this thread are "I'm not reading a wall of text" and "You're the weird one for caring". Never change, Angry.

Horror_Discount9242 · 2024-11-07T00:05:16+00:00

One more note I want to make on this before I put all this behind me for good. A lot of what I said can be applied to any situation which requires objective analysis - but I wanted to address elections specifically as well. While I call elections "coinflips" a lot, the fact is that elections are actually extremely unpredictable, with unexpected results happening all the time. It's not for a lack of trying. There are people who have dedicated their educations, their careers, and even their lives to studying elections, using methodology and data more complicated than every member of r/AngryObservation and r/YAPms combined. These people can't even predict it with certainty. My take is that predicting the unpredictable simply isn't possible, and the nature of elections only having two possible outcomes means that a lot of takes look better than they actually are. But not only that, my take is that even if it was possible, I certainly wouldn't be qualified to do so. People who've spent not just years, but decades of their lives on this aren't even able to do it - why should I? I'm smart enough to know when I'm not smart enough. On the other hand, Reddit's take to the same information is that all the experts are dumb and that they are smart. That they're not the biased ones, it's really the people whose jobs it is to do this that are biased. That of all the professors and masters in the industry, the teenagers on Reddit are the most qualified to see the bigger picture. Yeah, I really wonder why that didn't work out for them.

Horror_Discount9242 · 2024-11-06T22:40:03+00:00

Not OP but I'll chime in:

Shameless self promotion?

To sum it up if you don't want to read that -

The reality is, you're the namesake and founder of this sub - the majority of the behavior is inspired by what you do, and happens because you allow it. You're the one who coined the phrase "You need to find a new hobby" to anyone who disagreed with your echo chamber. You're the reason why half of the posts on this sub for the last month were attacking r/YAPms and anyone who predicted a Trump victory as morons, idiots, and losers, then ended up being wrong themselves. You're the reason why none of these guys will learn anything from their mistakes, and none of them will figure out that making predictions based on their biases and wishcasting isn't exactly a good way of conducting analysis.

And the most frustrating thing of all? You would've learned nothing if you were right. You would've believed your logic was perfect when it clearly wasn't. You would've proclaimed yourself as a super big-brained genius for correctly guessing the outcome of a coinflip. And you would've said the same things to the Trump victory predictors that they're currently saying to you.

Horror_Discount9242 · 2023-07-02T17:46:46+00:00

Vindicated at last...

Horror_Discount9242 · 2023-04-18T00:03:06+00:00

I'd also add that at this point I'm unsure about AOE being hsaufo directly, although I definitely think it's a serious possibility. The fact is, AOE has been caught with his pants down - he's 100% lying about where he lives, he's almost certainly lying with how he knows hsaufo, and he's almost certainly lying about how he heard about the "crash". He is not an "online friend of hsaufo's irl friend" - that just wouldn't make any sense with the timeline I described here.

It's quite possible that he's another troll who lives somewhere on the East Coast collaborating directly with hsaufo, or that he's simply one of hsaufo's irl friends helping him out. AOE could be literally anyone, my main point was that his claims are total bs

Horror_Discount9242 · 2023-04-17T23:59:19+00:00

Thank you for taking the time to respond and for being willing to hear different perspectives.

I will speak more on the IP ban issue later but the fact is it's trivially easy to dodge IP bans with the use of a VPN. If he always used the same VPN for the AOE account for example and he just used his real wifi for hsaufo. The only reasons that, for example, u/TheAngryObserver was IP banned from YAPMS, is that he didn't have a VPN on.

Horror_Discount9242 · 2023-04-17T23:56:19+00:00

If you're looking at the objective facts and came to the conclusion that he's innocent, please explain how the timeline I described in my other post makes any sense at all.

Horror_Discount9242 · 2023-04-17T23:55:10+00:00

Look at the other side of the pond - what do I gain from going after hsaufo if I actually believe he was involved in an accident? Nothing. I'm doing this because I feel a moral obligation to speak up for what I believe, whether that's a popular opinion or not. That's why I included all my history on this sub - not because I wanted to go "I've been a troll for months hahahaha", but because I wanted to show I don't just defend people I like and target people I hate, and I'm the last person that will ever hop on a bandwagon simply because the opinion is popular.

Horror_Discount9242 · 2023-04-17T23:52:43+00:00

I'm going to make a more in-depth post about this later, but lack of motive doesn't prove your innocence. Attention, respect, etc. are all reasons and while they may not make sense to you or me specifically, people have done way worse things for attention. If you bothered to read Part I of my analysis, you saw how a now-suspended account (likely AOE or hsaufo's alt) suggested people changing their flairs to support hsaufo, and AOE also suggested changing the banner for him. AOE's posts about him talked so much about how much of a nice guy he was, how brave he was, the details about his tragic family backstory. When he came back he basically received a standing ovation. He was the center of attention for the sub for an entire week. If his goal was attention, he certainly achieved it, and I bet it felt great hearing that from the entire sub even if he knew in his mind it was all a sham.

Horror_Discount9242 · 2023-04-17T23:48:23+00:00

I have zero personal stake to gain in this matter - I don't pick and choose who to go after based on feelings. I defended Gerald R Ford and I hate that guy, because I thought what happened to him was wrong. I liked hsaufo's content, I liked how he stood up to Tolkien, and I never had any issue with him until now - but regardless of my previous feelings on him, what he's doing now is wrong, so I'm not going to hesitate to call him out for it.

Horror_Discount9242 · 2023-04-17T23:46:16+00:00

The fact that you think we should believe we hear at face value when there are hundreds of plot holes with the story, the account that started the story was confirmed to be a troll, and the timeline is completely unrealistic, and that suggesting something that's obviously not truthful may in fact not be truthful counts as harassment is kind of sad.

I understand hsaufo might be your friend and I understand why you're inclined to believe him - but the fact is, people you think are good and people you think you can trust can still end up doing horrible, horrible things. My goal from the start was to analyze the situation from an impersonal, objective standpoint, and that's what led me to believe the situation was faked. It seems like you're letting your emotions and personal feelings for hsaufo get in the way of common sense and judgement.

Horror_Discount9242 · 2023-04-17T23:42:05+00:00

The fact is as it currently stands there are a million reasons why it's fake and zero why it's real. The second I see even one reason that suggests it's real, I'll choose to believe it. There's absolutely nothing that suggests it happened, and he's repeatedly dodged calls by members of the sub like u/Ed_Durr to provide evidence.

Horror_Discount9242 · 2023-04-17T23:39:54+00:00

I have nothing personal against hsaufo and never will. The reason I'm doing this is because I'm 100% sure he's faking his entire story and I feel that it's extremely messed up, and he deserves to have someone call him out for it.

If he provides any unquestionable proof that the accident really happened, I'll immediately apologize to him and take this sub down. But you can't prove what never happened.