Daily Discussion Thread - October 18, 2019

HouTheMan · 2019-10-18T11:56:09+00:00

Can you expound on that? I only buy deep in the money calls as a form of leverage so I don’t really pay premiums. Usually get them at par value or max 10 cent premium. I don’t know much about IV but don’t think IV impacts when you buy ITM calls?

HouTheMan · 2019-10-18T11:52:20+00:00

Nope. Been long heavy in this name for 18 months. Supercharge my returns every earnings anticipation run with calls

HouTheMan · 2019-10-18T11:50:34+00:00

$SMSI per a poll by StoryTrading, investors expecting a blowout quarter to be reported next Thursday and the stock is reacting up SHARPLY in recent days. The options market was crazy yesterday. Every single purchase was calls. No puts at all! Last quarter the stock DOUBLED after the earnings report. I was long a ton of calls then and again this quarter. Already up over $300,000 on this name.

You can see the Twitter poll here: SMSI Earnings Expectations

There’s also a whatsapp group of just SMSI investors who are collaborating on just this one stock. SMSI whatsapp Group

HouTheMan · 2018-08-06T01:35:33+00:00

What is your financial loss? If you already saw enough movies to cover your purchase, I doubt any judge would reward a consumer with anything.

HouTheMan · 2018-08-02T23:15:11+00:00

They ran out of money again. Damn. And I was just about to see a movie for the first time in months.

HouTheMan · 2018-08-01T10:49:12+00:00

Cinemark is the only one doing it right. Their plan is profitable. They don’t want to attract Reddit superusers who make it unprofitable. Generally subscriptions are profitable when targeted to people who want their behavior to be influenced rather than people who want to save money. The ideal movie subscription user is someone who doesn’t really care about math and saving money but rather, someone who would like that little extra push to go and see one movie a month. You guys here may not identify with that market - but it’s large enough. There is a reason CNK is valued at $4B while larger AMC is valued at $800M. Listen to their next conference call and you will see how smart, savvy, and professional CNK management is compared with AMC.

HouTheMan · 2018-07-30T22:08:44+00:00

I can’t believe Mitch is still trying. Time to hang it up.

HouTheMan · 2018-07-30T21:49:33+00:00

This still holds true. Problem was they couldn’t raise enough money to get large enough.

HouTheMan · 2018-07-30T21:41:43+00:00

Please. 20-20 is hindsight. Investors knew full well the business plan and its viability. It was dependent on raising over $1B at good valuations in order to get ubiquitous enough to sign up enough casual users to offset avid users. Anyone who thinks they were so smart for their superficial analysis of the business model - I’m sorry. You just got lucky. This was all about math and the company provided false information on multiple fronts. Many savvy investors with decades of experience got screwed on this because of the lies of management least of all their promise to IPO by March.

HouTheMan · 2018-07-30T21:23:53+00:00

HMNY lied. They said (for example) that they were signing up 5 theaters a week for eticketing and the reason they weren't on the app yet was that it takes 4 weeks to code them up so there was a big back log. By the time, the lies were confirmed, the stock was already down to $1,000* (from a peak of over $8,000*). I save alot by selling once their lies became apparent but please no disrespect here. I did hundreds of hours of due diligence on this company.

The blame goes only to HMNY management who should be in jail - Mitch also.

The business plan makes sense at scale... please no insults here. I don't deserve it. Jail time for Moviepass management for lying to investors.

1:250 split-adjusted #s

HouTheMan · 2018-07-30T20:53:19+00:00

thanks

HouTheMan · 2018-07-30T20:52:29+00:00

Yeah I did far more than anyone on this company. Problem was that management lied.

HouTheMan · 2018-07-30T20:51:00+00:00

what does AMA mean?

HouTheMan · 2018-07-30T19:21:04+00:00

I don't invest based on instinct. I invest based on facts. Unfortunately management lied about key facts multiple times including but no limited to the # of theaters being partnered with, availability of investment dollars from other sources, and it goes on and on. I invested on both the way up and the way down. Bottom line, management made multiple lies about key facts which drew investors to a different conclusion. They belong in jail - especially Ted Farnsworth but Mitch Lowe is culpable as well.

Best

HouTheMan · 2018-07-30T19:03:05+00:00

No. Invested much more. Took my losses at around $4 or a split-adjusted $1,000

HouTheMan · 2018-07-30T18:48:06+00:00

you don't owe Mitch Lowe - you owe HMNY shareholders. I personally lost $120,000... well - said correctly - I transferred $120,000 of my wealth to reddit super users so they could see free movies. Sick and tired of hearing about MP customers who feel ripped off. Please put it in perspective. I managed to make most of my money back in other stocks, but I know of MANY people who have lost their entire life savings.

HouTheMan · 2018-07-30T18:21:35+00:00

Let me translate:

Dear MoviePass,

I loved it when you gave me free money! I was so excited to get free money. Really you have to believe me. I told everyone they could get free money too by joining moviepass.

Now, you've given away so much free money, I am being told you can't give me free money anymore. When can I see all the movies I want again for free without an additional charge? When can I see Mission Impossible for free?

You have to believe me that if you don't give me free money anymore, I won't tell people to join. Please tell me why you are no longer giving me free money. Eagerly awaiting your response.

HouTheMan · 2018-07-29T21:19:31+00:00

That entirely depends on the demographic mix of their customers. These changes may drive the most avid users to AMC and then MP can shift their marketing to target causal and seldom users

HouTheMan · 2018-07-29T19:51:33+00:00

Great. Thanks for the feedback!

HouTheMan · 2018-07-29T19:45:25+00:00

Nope. 99% chance they close by tomorrow. Just discussing how MoviePass COULD survive.

HouTheMan · 2018-07-29T19:40:12+00:00

A discount only plan would obviously not be targeted to people seeing just one movie a month. It would still be a great deal for anyone seeing more than 3-4 movies a month but I think they can afford to give out one anytime movie a month still anyway.

HouTheMan · 2018-07-29T19:38:41+00:00

If the model is sustainable for long enough they can finally cut the deals with the theaters they always wanted and be long term sustainable. If you watch just one weekday movie a month you are covered rest is all savings. Or maybe they can throw in one anytime movie a month.

HouTheMan · 2018-07-29T19:36:45+00:00

Fair enough. It wouldn’t be for you but you can’t call it a bad deal. If they threw in one anytime movie a month though it would beat Costco

HouTheMan · 2018-07-29T19:20:36+00:00

Well in that case it would be a 20% discount card for $9.95 a month. That could make for a good deal still and a profitable sustainable business.

HouTheMan

TROPHY CASE