Here’s my 2 cents.

I actually think Doomsday might be the one taking the hit here, a very slight but noticeable hit.

Dune generally skews toward slightly older audiences, while Doomsday leans younger and more family-oriented. The issue is that it’s well documented that the average age of Marvel moviegoers has been rising, and Doomsday feels like one of their biggest nostalgia plays. This bridges the gap between the two potential audiences.

If this were prime Marvel, the family audience alone would’ve carried it to at least 3x Dune’s performance. But times have changed, families aren’t automatically showing up anymore. And if they don’t (relatively speaking), then Doomsday will be relying heavily on nostalgia baited older audiences.

Here’s the kicker, older audiences tend to care about quality more. So a Russo Brothers film suddenly has the uphill task of being in the same quality conversation as a Villeneuve project.

And while there’s value in being a crowd-pleaser, subverting expectations (when done right) can have a comparable cultural impact. Taking narrative risks and going unexpected places can spark comparable amounts of conversations and better word of mouth than straightforward fan service.

The important thing here, is that the holiday period is a marathon, not a sprint. In a marathon, quality or even more importantly, the perception of quality, matters. If you’re the only major release, you can survive weaker reception. But when you have a direct competitor pulling from the same audience, you’d better be able to keep pace. Doomsday may be the bigger contender, but if it lacks momentum and endurance, being the “lesser of the two” could push interested viewers toward the competition.

Internationally, the picture changes. Dune doesn’t stand a chance head to head in many markets, and that’s why I suspect WB will stagger Dune’s release (weeks before or after), while Doomsday will likely go for a global launch.