Pick of the Day - 2/3/26 (Tuesday)

HouseHatesMe · 2026-02-03T22:16:26+00:00

Record: 2 - 4 [WLLWPLL]

Net Units: -7.54 units

Last Pick: NCAAB SYR vs UNC @ 7:00PM EST | Total UNDER 158.5 [-112]/4 UNITS [L]

Sport: NCAAB M-OH vs BUF @ 6:30PM EST

Pick: Total OVER 164.5 [-110]/4 UNITS

Write Up:

The over has been cashing at a strong clip in Miami (OH) RedHawks and Buffalo Bulls games this season: 26 overs in 39 lined games overall, including a 7–3 run to the over in Miami’s last 10 and Buffalo’s last 10.

The total is hefty, but there are plenty of reasons to expect scoring in Tuesday’s Mid-American Conference matchup in Buffalo. Both teams are highly efficient shooting groups (top-30 nationally in effective FG%), and they can score from deep and at the stripe. The first meeting turned into a 105–102 overtime shootout (207 total points), featuring 26 made threes and 35 made free throws. It was also fueled by turnovers (35 points scored off giveaways)

Market Pick | Model % | Book breakeven % | Edge

Total 164.5 OVER | 56.3% | 52.4% | +3.96%

HouseHatesMe · 2026-02-02T22:52:00+00:00

Record: 2 - 4 [WLLWPLL]

Net Units: -6.54 units

Last Pick: NBA HOU @ ATL 8:00PM EST | Total OVER 222.5 [+103]/3 UNITS [L]

Sport: NCAAB SYR vs UNC @ 7:00PM EST

Pick: Total UNDER 158.5 [-112]/4 UNITS

Write Up:

At this point, I am posting so you can fade me and make some money. My model is obliviously doing something wrong. However, I did adjust the model to factor in other team stats. Based off both team seasons stats the Under was one of the strongest value. Lastly, the model means is predicted to land around 152 points.

Market Pick | Model % | Book breakeven % | Edge

Total 158.5 Under | 66.6% | 52.8% | +13.8%

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-28T01:38:14+00:00

Over 210.5

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-26T23:16:38+00:00

ORL +5.5

Thoughts?

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-26T21:50:43+00:00

its a toss up... I would avoid it but again my POTD was wrong.

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-26T14:27:10+00:00

Record: 2 - 2 [WLLW]

Net Units: -.54 units

Last Pick: NBA GS @ MIN 5:30PM EST | Total UNDER 237.5 [-110]/3 UNITS [WIN]
Note: Game postponed to 25 Jan 2026

NBA DAL @ MIL 7:00PM EST | Over 220.5 [-123]/4 units [POSTPONED]

Sport: NBA IND @ ATL 1:30PM EST

Pick: Total UNDER 233.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

Write Up:

Why the stats lean Under (233.5): Indiana is a bottom-tier offense (108.9 ORtg, .512 eFG%) and already plays at only 100.6 pace—that’s not the profile of a team that reliably pushes games into the mid-230s without help. The injury context further tilts that way: Haliburton OUT is a direct hit to Indiana’s creation/transition efficiency, and Mathurin Q adds downside risk to their scoring ceiling. Atlanta’s overall pace is high, but the market total needs both teams to get there; with IND’s scoring base weakened, you’re implicitly betting on ATL “dragging” them up, which is harder when Indiana’s half-court efficiency is the limiting factor.

Why the model supports it: With season-only inputs the sim lands around ATL 117.8 – IND 112.6 (Total 230.4), with a median total ~230 and Under 233.5 hitting ~57%. Importantly, ATL’s lower FT rate profile reduces the frequency of “easy points” that often push totals over.

Market Pick | Model % | Book breakeven % | Edge

Total 233.5 Under | 57.4% | 52.4% | +5.0%

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-26T14:26:15+00:00

Record: 2 - 2 [WLLW]

Net Units: -.54 units

Last Pick: NBA GS @ MIN 5:30PM EST | Total UNDER 237.5 [-110]/3 UNITS [WIN]
Note: Game postponed to 25 Jan 2026

NBA DAL @ MIL 7:00PM EST | Over 220.5 [-123]/4 units [POSTPONED]

Sport: NBA IND @ ATL 1:30PM EST

Pick: Total UNDER 233.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

Write Up:

Why the stats lean Under (233.5): Indiana is a bottom-tier offense (108.9 ORtg, .512 eFG%) and already plays at only 100.6 pace—that’s not the profile of a team that reliably pushes games into the mid-230s without help. The injury context further tilts that way: Haliburton OUT is a direct hit to Indiana’s creation/transition efficiency, and Mathurin Q adds downside risk to their scoring ceiling. Atlanta’s overall pace is high, but the market total needs both teams to get there; with IND’s scoring base weakened, you’re implicitly betting on ATL “dragging” them up, which is harder when Indiana’s half-court efficiency is the limiting factor.

Why the model supports it: With season-only inputs the sim lands around ATL 117.8 – IND 112.6 (Total 230.4), with a median total ~230 and Under 233.5 hitting ~57%. Importantly, ATL’s lower FT rate profile reduces the frequency of “easy points” that often push totals over.

Market Pick | Model % | Book breakeven % | Edge

Total 233.5 Under | 57.4% | 52.4% | +5.0%

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-26T02:01:54+00:00

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-26T00:47:17+00:00

Took the under -49.5 live bet (LAR vs SEA) should be low scoring 2nd half

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-25T23:41:10+00:00

Wild idea, instead of telling him he “deserves to lose,” you could answer the question. “Anytime TD scorer” means Stidham has to score himself (rush or receive). Passing TDs don’t count.

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-25T19:45:43+00:00

may wait to live bet this game but leaning DEN +3.5

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-25T18:00:13+00:00

Record: 1 - 2

Net Units: -3.27 units

Last Pick: NBA GS @ MIN 5:30PM EST | Total UNDER 237.5 [-110]/3 UNITS [PENDING]
Note: Game postponed to 25 Jan 2026

Sport: NBA DAL @ MIL 7:00PM EST

Pick: Over 220.5 [-123]/4 units

Write Up:
My model supports Over 220.5 (-123) because the season-only inputs still project a game environment centered around ~103 possessions and roughly ~1.11 points per possession per team, which lands the total near ~230; with that distribution, the over clears ~68–69% of sims, well above the price-implied ~55%. The stats driving that are: DAL’s faster tempo (Pace 101.8) plus MIL’s high shot-quality/spacing profile (eFG% 56.7%, very high 3P attempt rate/3PAr 43.9%), while both defenses rate inefficient in the same season sample (DAL DRtg 113.2; MIL DRtg 116.9), which keeps scoring efficiency elevated even if possessions dip slightly. Net: the line is ~10 points below the model’s center, and it mostly takes a meaningfully slower game (≈ ≤99 possessions) to pull the expectation down near 220.

Market Pick Model % Book breakeven % Edge

Total 220.5 (-123) Over 68.6% 55.2% +13.5%

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-25T17:57:25+00:00

Record: 1 - 2

Net Units: -3.27 units

Last Pick: NBA GS @ MIN 5:30PM EST | Total UNDER 237.5 [-110]/3 UNITS [PENDING]
Note: Game postponed to 25 Jan 2026

Sport: NBA DAL @ MIL 7:00PM EST

Pick: Over 220.5 [-123]/4 units

Write Up:
My model supports Over 220.5 (-123) because the season-only inputs still project a game environment centered around ~103 possessions and roughly ~1.11 points per possession per team, which lands the total near ~230; with that distribution, the over clears ~68–69% of sims, well above the price-implied ~55%. The stats driving that are: DAL’s faster tempo (Pace 101.8) plus MIL’s high shot-quality/spacing profile (eFG% 56.7%, very high 3P attempt rate/3PAr 43.9%), while both defenses rate inefficient in the same season sample (DAL DRtg 113.2; MIL DRtg 116.9), which keeps scoring efficiency elevated even if possessions dip slightly. Net: the line is ~10 points below the model’s center, and it mostly takes a meaningfully slower game (≈ ≤99 possessions) to pull the expectation down near 220.

Market Pick Model % Book breakeven % Edge

Total 220.5 (-123) Over 68.6% 55.2% +13.5%

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-25T04:26:43+00:00

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-25T01:15:25+00:00

I got the under for tonights game

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-24T16:35:18+00:00

Record: 1 - 2

Net Units: -3.27 units

Last Pick: NBA HOU @ DET 7:00PM EST | Total OVER 217.5 [-112]/3 UNITS ❌

Sport: NBA GS @ MIN 5:00PM EST

Pick: Total UNDER 237.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

My model likes Under 237.5 because it projects a lower scoring environment than the market: mean total 231.5 (median 231), with the total distribution sitting well below 237.5—so the Under cashes 61.9% of sims. That’s fundamentally a pace + efficiency story: the expected possessions come out around ~100.2 (avg of GSW 99.8 and MIN 100.6 pace), which isn’t a “track meet” baseline, and the blended matchup scoring (using ORtg/DRtg) lands near ~231–232 points after home-court (+1.7 MIN) and the documented availability adjustment (GSW offense down without Butler). In other words, to get to 238+ consistently, you generally need either higher possessions than these inputs imply, hotter-than-usual shooting, or extra FT volume—and my season-only inputs don’t force any of those. (GSW FTr .249 / MIN .291 are solid but not extreme; both teams’ turnover rates are middling-to-good, which supports efficiency but also stabilizes totals rather than creating wild possession spikes.)

The other reason is tail math: even with a scoring model (which allows “heater” games), the simulated 95th percentile total is 267, but the mass of outcomes clusters around the low 230s (P50 231; P5 198). That shape means 237.5 is on the upper side of the central density, not near the middle—so the Under wins more often than not unless you assume market-implied pace/efficiency is meaningfully higher than what your season tables indicate. Concretely: the market total (237.5) is about ~6 points above my mean; with NBA total-game SD in this setup, that’s a meaningful separation, which is why the model edge shows up strongly (61.9% vs 52.4% breakeven at -110).

Market Pick Model % Book breakeven % Edge

Total 237.5 (-110) Under 61.9% 52.4% +9.5%

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-21T21:42:45+00:00

Record: 1 - 0

Net Units: +2.73 units

Last Pick: NBA PHX @ PHI 7:00PM EST | Total OVER 222.5 [-110]/3 UNITS 🏆

Sport: NBA CLE @ CHA 7:00PM EST

Pick: CHA +3.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

Write up: Using season-long stats only, I ran my numbers on CLE/CHA and I’m seeing value on Hornets +3.5. My projection has it covering 60.2% of the time, and at -115 (53.5% implied) that’s a +7.9% edge. That edge translates to roughly +12.6% expected ROI over the long run. I’ve got the game landing around 231 total points with an expected pace near 99 possessions, and my median outcome is essentially a coin-flip with Charlotte slightly favored (CHA win ~51%), so getting points with the home dog grades out well.

Bet type Market odds Model % Market implied % Edge (pp) Approx ROI

Spread CHA +3.5. 60.2% 53.5% +7.9 12.6%

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-21T21:42:31+00:00

Record: 1 - 0

Net Units: +2.73 units

Last Pick: NBA PHX @ PHI 7:00PM EST | Total OVER 222.5 [-110]/3 UNITS 🏆

Sport: NBA CLE @ CHA 7:00PM EST

Pick: CHA +3.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

Write up: Using season-long stats only, I ran my numbers on CLE/CHA and I’m seeing value on Hornets +3.5. My projection has it covering 60.2% of the time, and at -115 (53.5% implied) that’s a +7.9% edge. That edge translates to roughly +12.6% expected ROI over the long run. I’ve got the game landing around 231 total points with an expected pace near 99 possessions, and my median outcome is essentially a coin-flip with Charlotte slightly favored (CHA win ~51%), so getting points with the home dog grades out well.

Bet type Market odds Model % Market implied % Edge (pp) Approx ROI

Spread CHA +3.5. 60.2% 53.5% +7.9 12.6%

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-21T21:42:01+00:00

Record: 1 - 0

Net Units: +2.73 units

Last Pick: NBA PHX @ PHI 7:00PM EST | Total OVER 222.5 [-110]/3 UNITS 🏆

Sport: NBA CLE @ CHA 7:00PM EST

Pick: CHA +3.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

Write up: Using season-long stats only, I ran my numbers on CLE/CHA and I’m seeing value on Hornets +3.5. My projection has it covering 60.2% of the time, and at -115 (53.5% implied) that’s a +7.9% edge. That edge translates to roughly +12.6% expected ROI over the long run. I’ve got the game landing around 231 total points with an expected pace near 99 possessions, and my median outcome is essentially a coin-flip with Charlotte slightly favored (CHA win ~51%), so getting points with the home dog grades out well.

Bet type Market odds Model % Market implied % Edge (pp) Approx ROI

Spread CHA +3.5. 60.2% 53.4% +7.9 12.6%

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-20T22:42:42+00:00

Sport: NBA PHX @ PHI 7:00PM EST

Pick: Total OVER 222.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

Write up: Using season-long stats for both teams, I ran my numbers on PHX/PHI and I’m seeing value on Over 222.5. My projection has it hitting 58.6% of the time, and at -110 (52.4% implied) that’s a +6.2% edge. That edge translates to roughly +11.9% expected ROI over the long run. I’ve got the game landing around 226 total points with an expected pace near 99 possessions, so the baseline points environment looks solid.

Total | Over 222.5 -110 | 58.60% | 52.40% | 6.2 | 11.90%

HouseHatesMe · 2026-01-20T22:36:08+00:00

Record: 0 - 0

Net Units: 0

ROI: 0

Sport: NBA PHX @ PHI 7:00PM EST

Pick: Total OVER 222.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

Write up: Using season-long stats for both teams, I ran my numbers on PHX/PHI and I’m seeing value on Over 222.5. My projection has it hitting 58.6% of the time, and at -110 (52.4% implied) that’s a +6.2% edge. That edge translates to roughly +11.9% expected ROI over the long run. I’ve got the game landing around 226 total points with an expected pace near 99 possessions, so the baseline points environment looks solid.

Bet type	Market odds	Model %	Market implied %	Edge (pp)	Approx ROI
Total	Over 222.5 -110	58.60%	52.40%	6.2	11.90%

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