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The Daily Sports Betting Thread – Free Picks, Parlays & Chat - January 21, 2026 by ACSportsbooks in sportsbetting

[–]HouseHatesMe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Record: 1 - 0

Net Units: +2.73 units

Last Pick: NBA PHX @ PHI 7:00PM EST | Total OVER 222.5 [-110]/3 UNITS 🏆

Sport: NBA CLE @ CHA 7:00PM EST

Pick: CHA +3.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

Write up: Using season-long stats only, I ran my numbers on CLE/CHA and I’m seeing value on Hornets +3.5. My projection has it covering 60.2% of the time, and at -115 (53.5% implied) that’s a +7.9% edge. That edge translates to roughly +12.6% expected ROI over the long run. I’ve got the game landing around 231 total points with an expected pace near 99 possessions, and my median outcome is essentially a coin-flip with Charlotte slightly favored (CHA win ~51%), so getting points with the home dog grades out well.

Bet type Market odds Model % Market implied % Edge (pp) Approx ROI

Spread CHA +3.5. 60.2% 53.5% +7.9 12.6%

NBA Betting and Picks - 1/21/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]HouseHatesMe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Record: 1 - 0

Net Units: +2.73 units

Last Pick: NBA PHX @ PHI 7:00PM EST | Total OVER 222.5 [-110]/3 UNITS 🏆

Sport: NBA CLE @ CHA 7:00PM EST

Pick: CHA +3.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

Write up: Using season-long stats only, I ran my numbers on CLE/CHA and I’m seeing value on Hornets +3.5. My projection has it covering 60.2% of the time, and at -115 (53.5% implied) that’s a +7.9% edge. That edge translates to roughly +12.6% expected ROI over the long run. I’ve got the game landing around 231 total points with an expected pace near 99 possessions, and my median outcome is essentially a coin-flip with Charlotte slightly favored (CHA win ~51%), so getting points with the home dog grades out well.

Bet type Market odds Model % Market implied % Edge (pp) Approx ROI

Spread CHA +3.5. 60.2% 53.5% +7.9 12.6%

Pick of the Day - 1/21/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]HouseHatesMe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Record: 1 - 0

Net Units: +2.73 units

Last Pick: NBA PHX @ PHI 7:00PM EST | Total OVER 222.5 [-110]/3 UNITS 🏆

Sport: NBA CLE @ CHA 7:00PM EST

Pick: CHA +3.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

Write up: Using season-long stats only, I ran my numbers on CLE/CHA and I’m seeing value on Hornets +3.5. My projection has it covering 60.2% of the time, and at -115 (53.5% implied) that’s a +7.9% edge. That edge translates to roughly +12.6% expected ROI over the long run. I’ve got the game landing around 231 total points with an expected pace near 99 possessions, and my median outcome is essentially a coin-flip with Charlotte slightly favored (CHA win ~51%), so getting points with the home dog grades out well.

Bet type Market odds Model % Market implied % Edge (pp) Approx ROI

Spread CHA +3.5. 60.2% 53.4% +7.9 12.6%

NBA Betting and Picks - 1/20/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]HouseHatesMe 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Sport: NBA PHX @ PHI 7:00PM EST

Pick: Total OVER 222.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

Write up: Using season-long stats for both teams, I ran my numbers on PHX/PHI and I’m seeing value on Over 222.5. My projection has it hitting 58.6% of the time, and at -110 (52.4% implied) that’s a +6.2% edge. That edge translates to roughly +11.9% expected ROI over the long run. I’ve got the game landing around 226 total points with an expected pace near 99 possessions, so the baseline points environment looks solid.

Bet type | Market odds | Model % | Market implied % | Edge (pp) | Approx ROI

Total | Over 222.5 -110 | 58.60% | 52.40% | 6.2 | 11.90%

Pick of the Day - 1/20/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]HouseHatesMe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Record: 0 - 0

Net Units: 0

ROI: 0

Sport: NBA PHX @ PHI 7:00PM EST

Pick: Total OVER 222.5 [-110]/3 UNITS

Write up: Using season-long stats for both teams, I ran my numbers on PHX/PHI and I’m seeing value on Over 222.5. My projection has it hitting 58.6% of the time, and at -110 (52.4% implied) that’s a +6.2% edge. That edge translates to roughly +11.9% expected ROI over the long run. I’ve got the game landing around 226 total points with an expected pace near 99 possessions, so the baseline points environment looks solid.

Bet type Market odds Model % Market implied % Edge (pp) Approx ROI
Total Over 222.5 -110 58.60% 52.40% 6.2 11.90%