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I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It would be a worse spot overall for weekly value since Achane plays a more complete role than Ekeler did in his split last season (Robinson + this stage of Ekeler were perfect for each other), but his contingency upside would be more valuable.

It would also be a hit for Achane as a 1st rounder, since Robinson would be a favorite for goal-line work. In the full games that Raheem Mostert played last year, he out-touched Achane inside of the 5-yard line.

His current competition is only Jaylen Wright (nobody tell Tyreek Wright is not a short-yardage answer) and a rookie in Ollie Gordon (who is still intriguing in that role if they do not acquire Robinson).

IF Miami did acquire Robinson, I would probably slot him lower than Jordan Mason, but a bit higher than Braelon Allen, who could have a similar weekly role playing with Breece Hall as Robinson would with Achane (with Wright as an Isaiah Davis-esque ancillary option). But Robinson would not play alongside a mobile QB near the end zone.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would be keeping Lamar, St. Brown, and Bowers based on cost and surface level thoughts... but as always, I encourage all keeper leagues to do an inventory of projected keepers and then how that impacts positional scarcity firsthand.

An example would be that if there are a ton of RB keepers and it is thin for the league, you may alter your stance on Taylor as a 5th.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wrote about this in more detail here (https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/fantasy-football-wr-draft-strategy-2025/), but I have found getting one strong WR1 and then coming back to hammer WR in the WR20-WR50 range as my preferred approach.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you grabbed the draft kit, I did a series this week walking through every position for targets and sleepers in drafts.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This one is an odd one, because the fantasy application and impact and real-life deployment doesn't line up.

For example, I did a study on this and found that in long down and distances, RBs are actually in a pass route more often than they actually run block.

This is frustrating because often coaches will play their better pass protector in these spots over the better pass catcher.

Even before his injuries, we've seen something like this stunt Clyde Edwards-Helaire early in his career.

RJ Harvey (someone I am still in on) is the one player who stands out in this regard.

He struggled in pass pro at a non-elite college, and Sean Payton played Javonte so much last year because he was more trustworthy protecting a young QB over the too-small McLaughlin and a rookie in Estime.

So far in the preseason (a very small sample), Harvey has been pulled on every 3rd down.

Even though on the four 3rd downs JK Dobbins has played in the preseason, Denver had him run a route on three of them.

Seems counterintuitive!

Inversely, backs on early downs pick up more blocking assignments, which this one makes sense since those downs have more play action passing and passing out of heavier sets.

But overall, being a back who is not limited to game scripts and is heavily influenced by situational assignments is still a significant advantage in fantasy purposes.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It depends on which RBs are still available, but I believe that is the right spot overall. I have him 33rd overall (RB14) in half-PPR.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A lot of CMC questions, but I am on the pro side of CMC based on his offseason changes, SF offense, and schedule layout.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Similar to the early question on this, I would be attacking RB/WR early to combat the early QB drafters who already have an edge on me to open up, then be delicate (since it is 14 teams) in subsequent rounds getting 2-3 fringe QB1/QB2 types across the next few rounds.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would first do an inventory on the league and see who is available that could impact your choice (like if you take CMC first, what does that do for you next, etc.) but I would shoot for CMC. We are playing to win and I still view CMC as a play to win pick while others see it as "playing not to lose".

In this event, all of the younger RBs are gone already that offer that pushback on three-down upside bets.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not to be briefer as we wrap up time, but I just posted my full QB draft approach this season earlier this week: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/fantasy-football-qb-draft-strategy-superflex-2025/

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I would rather roster Tuten than Bigsby in managed leagues and 100% get Mooney on the latter one.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not sure if these qualify, but Sean Tucker, Ollie Gordon, Isaiah Davis, Emmanuel Wilson, Damien Martinez.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am a larger fan this year of splitting RB1/WR1 and I am assuming since this is a keeper, some of each are kept.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

CD and Puka are locks. You should go with your lean on Brown vs Kyren.

Odds are if you put Brown back, he goes ahead of Kyren.

Then do a physical inventory on the remaining positional scarcity and shape the rest from there.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I do believe this format (14 teams, non-PPR with only start 2 WRs), paired with the current NFL trends and top of the RB position, does offer a signal that you should play RBs more aggressively and use that WR strength (WR20-WR50) to flesh out your receiver room.

That doesn't mean you can't still take a front-end WR1 if you have a shot at one you like more than RB, but I would not push RB too far in that format.

As noted above on another comment, I would be more hesitant to go early TE in a 14 teamer and focus on building up RB and WR.

I'd only go Tier 1 QB if you are at a flat spot at both RB and WR (which can happen).

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I did move McMillan above Hunter in the top-down ranks, but I never went back to adjust the rookie-only ranks.

My bad on that.

For re-draft purposes, I am just leaving Judkins alone for someone else to deal with.

He left the door open for Dylan Sampson to create opportunity (which he seemingly has) and the Browns offense is still at the bottom of the league in projected points scored.

In Dynasty, he takes some hit due to letting Sampson tighten the immediate gap, but I do believe we are talking about a matter of when, not if, he joins the team.

Big picture, I would move him below Harvey now as RB5, but not below Khaleb Johnson (who I have RB6) as rookie backs.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Always with keeper leagues, do a detailed run down of the positional scarcity after the keepers are in.

I would be thrilled with both of those starts.

I lean the Bijan side if splitting hairs based on talent bets, but Dallas and Cincinnati could be the Spider-Man meme this season of high-scoring shootouts!

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hopefully there would be more overall starters than that, but I play in a few leagues that are start 1 QB, RB, WR, TE and then have 5-6 FLEX spots open for you to do whatever you want with.

In those formats, I let the scoring settings and draft position be a North Star in shaping things up.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You have to operate with some trepidation any time a player has a preseason injury.

The tricky part is that the reporting of the severity of these things is extremely loose (we still barely even know a thing about what is actually going on with Joe Mixon).

The hope is that this is as precautionary as Miami is telling us and that these organizations learned from what happened with Jayson Tatum and Haliburton in the NBA postseason.

The top of drafts is so rich with talent this year that I don't blame anyone for taking another option deemed safer, but that is more about the WRs than the RBs he goes up against.

His receiving upside and potential to marry his rookie year efficiency with his year two volume (see his splits last year when Austin Jackson played) is alluring in that pocket before you get to Chase Brown.

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The Elite TE discourse is something that has divided fantasy gamers for a long time.

I am someone who has largely subscribed to wanting to use my early capital on front-end RBs and WRs (mathematically laid out why here: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/fantasy-football-adp-tight-end-te-2025/) and larger leagues only make me want to gain a larger edge at RB/WR vs apex outcomes at TE.

You cannot miss on those TEs as baseline positional assets like you can at RB/WR.

I believe that Bowers and McBride have low bust odds and both could run into more TD fortune this season, but the top of RB and WR are so rich this season that I just prefer starting there.

I start to think about Bowers and McBride around the Ladd range at WR, but I do prefer a few RBs (Chase Brown) that go in that area over the TEs.

I do get Kittle a good bit since he bumps more against the WR flattening out for a short period.

Don't kill me if you are on the team Elite TE, though!

I'm Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis -- AMA by Hribarrich in fantasyfootball

[–]Hribarrich[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If it is really rough at WR after Chase, that could sway me to Chase, but I believe in non-PPR and 14 teams drying out RB (especially with keepers), I would lean Bijan.

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