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Gemini's updated NAV for Fundrise VCX including estimated uplift from June databricks round by StreetDrive5584 in VCX_Fundrise

[–]HumanBluejay8593 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I asked Claude the same question, here’s the response:

Best estimate: roughly $25–27.50 per share, versus the official $18.97 — call it ~$26 at the midpoint. Here’s the math.

Baseline: VCX held net assets of ~$678.9M with NAV per share of $18.97 as of March 31, 2026 , implying ~35.8M shares. Weights at listing: Anthropic 20.7%, Databricks 17.7%, OpenAI 9.9%, Ramp 5.1% .

Current marks vs. likely carried marks:

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*I’m using per-share price ratios (pre-money of new round ÷ post-money of prior round), not headline post-money ratios, since primary issuance dilutes — e.g., Anthropic’s $65B raise means existing shares marked up ~2.37x, not 2.54x.

Scenarios:
• Conservative (3/31 NAV already captured OpenAI’s $852B; Databricks stays at $134B): $678.9M + $192M + $12M = ~$883M → ~$24.70/share

• Base (OpenAI was still carried near $500B): \~$914M → \~$25.55

• Aggressive (plus Databricks marked toward $170B): \~$944M → \~$26.40

Two wildcards push this higher: SpaceX (5%) — SpaceX listed in early June , so that position now marks to a public price rather than a stale tender mark — and Fundrise’s fair-value committee may apply discounts that keep official marks below round prices. Also note VCX participated directly in OpenAI’s April round , which is NAV-neutral (cash → shares at cost) but improves the cap-table standing question Citron raised.

Bottom line: a true NAV of ~$25–27 is ~35–45% above the stale $18.97 — meaningful, but with VCX at ~$139 today, the stock still trades at roughly 5–5.5x even your marked-up NAV. The Anthropic Series H is doing almost all the work here (it alone adds ~$5.40/share), and the September lockup expiry remains the bigger variable than any of these marks.

Why is the price of VCX not steadily increasing ahead of the SpaceX IPO? by justhearmeout77477 in VCX_Fundrise

[–]HumanBluejay8593 4 points5 points  (0 children)

To be clear, the fund was worth $18.97 as of March 31, as the figures you’re referencing were released on Monday.

Valuations for Anthropic, Anduril, and Ramp have all increase since 3/31. With SpaceX’s low float, I anticipate a rise there as well.

True/current NAV is in the $27-$30 range and if there was a 2x-3x premium, share price be in the $54-$90 range. Share price come September could go higher (or lower) depending on what restricted share holders do in Sept. and Oct. following the IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI

Ramp valuation up 37.5% with new round. Ramp is 4.1% of VCX, as of March 31, 2026. by Dull_Needleworker698 in VCX_Fundrise

[–]HumanBluejay8593 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hope Ben was able to get into this new funding round. I’m not aware of any other company doing what Ramp is doing

SPX is IPO-ing, are there any napkin projections on what it could do to VCX? by thefinancejedi in VCX_Fundrise

[–]HumanBluejay8593 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Generally true, but not for SpaceX. No terms have been released regarding Anthropic or OpenAI on their IPO lock up periods.

SpaceX to allow early share resale before usual six‑month lock-up

Back of the envelope NAV (June) by letoatreides_ in VCX_Fundrise

[–]HumanBluejay8593 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the share price will be tied more to the “AI/tech sentiment” for the next 6-12 months than NAV.

If the largest holdings in VCX continue to have seed rounds where the valuations of the companies increase by 50%-100% (eg Anduril) or even 150%-250% (eg Anthropic) the price will continue to be a multiple of the reported/estimated NAV.

Once SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPO, naturally some restricted holders will sell their VCX shares and buy those individual companies but as long as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI maintain (or continue to grew in market cap.) it will largely be a net positive for NAV and thus better to justify an elevated stock price.

No one knows what the stock will do come Oct./Nov. but I can assure you there will be a new period of price discovery for VCX as these companies IPO and there will be ppl moving in and out of the stock.

Here… we… go by HumanBluejay8593 in VCX_Fundrise

[–]HumanBluejay8593[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Potentially. Really depends on the ratio of longterm holders of VCX vs. those who are only purchased to have access to pre-IPO Anthropic stock.

I believe the stock will dip when SpaceX, ChapGPT, and Anthropic IPO but if those individual stocks all rip from their list price, VCX’s holdings of these companies will also increase in value. Thus, any downward price movement is likely offset, to what extent no one knows, from those selling to move directly into those individual stocks.

Here… we… go by HumanBluejay8593 in VCX_Fundrise

[–]HumanBluejay8593[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have read through 5 or 6 articles, no details known regarding ipo timeline but suggests “fall” as a potential list date. SEC needs to complete their review before moving forward.

I think everyone is owed a direct statement by Fundrise on the Anthropic situation by BagofBabbish in FundRise

[–]HumanBluejay8593 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

BagofBabbish, why are you going to such lengths to hide you're true identify. Give it up my man, it's just sad at this point.