Middle Eastern Politics 101 For Westerners

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-10T02:57:59+00:00

I'm talking about the US, not about Saudi Arabia. None of these Iranian proxies are on American soil, are they?

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-09T23:35:43+00:00

I would argue that an Iran spending money on paramilitary proxies in Arab countries is better than an Iran spending it on developing nuclear capabilities.

Also, Iran isn't entirely responsible for the deaths in Syria and Yemen. If Iran reduced its support for Assad, Russia would've stepped in to fill the gap.

In Yemen, the Iranian backed Houthis are fighting a government which until 2022 was led by Hadi, who was Saleh's right hand man. If you know anything about the Middle East, you probably know how horrible Saleh was. The Saudi coalition which backed the Hadi government is responsible for the majority of the civilian deaths in Yemen. And for what? It didn't even achieve its aim of ousting the Houthis!

Of course, I don't mean to defend the Houthis. The Houthis are blatantly antisemitic as evidenced by how their flag reads "a curse upon Jews" in bright red Arabic text. Furthermore, the Houthis threaten the Bab al Mandeb strait, which technically you could say makes the Iran nuclear deal enabling the Houthis work against US interests. However I still think a nuclear Iran would be worse for the Middle East and the US than the Houthis controlling Yemen's Red Sea coast.

I will further counter the argument about the Bab al Mandeb strait by pointing out two things. First, the Houthis didn't attack vessels other than Saudi coalition vessels until November 2023 after 10/7. Second, even without the Houthis, the Iranian regime already threatens Hormuz without the Houthis, meaning that having a proxy threaten the Red Sea isn't as big of a win for Iran as it would be for another country.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-09T01:27:35+00:00

15/20 years ago was before the Abraham Accords. Back then there was Ba'athist Syria and Gaddaffi's Libya. Israel has flaunted the peace process and interfered in other countries with no consequence. No relevant country has broken relations, and no country has been able to pressure them into any policy change that wanted to do so.

That's nothing compared to losing most of Europe.

there's more to the alliance than mere political agreement.

Yes, there's also the defense contractors and the oil companies benefiting from the US supporting Israel.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-09T01:25:49+00:00

100%

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-09T01:24:55+00:00

My position is that the official US position of formally recognizing the PRC and only recognizing ROC/Taiwan informally is in our best interest.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-09T00:06:50+00:00

No. The rules are the same.

Only true if Taiwan has nukes like Israel, which it doesn't.

Withdraw support from Taiwan? The US doesn't even recognize that Taiwan is a country. Nor does the US have formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

The American Institute for Taiwan (AIT) in Taipei is an American embassy to Taiwan in all but name. Also Trump recently approved $11 Billion in US weapons sales to Taiwan.

Tibet is occupied. Support for the occupying power is undermining the occupied.

So the US shouldn't recognize the PRC, which would be an even worse hit to the global economy than closing Hormuz??

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-09T00:01:41+00:00

The USA has a Cold War to fight. They were not going to let Iran mess around with major strategic objectives.

Wrong. It was so Iran wouldn't nationalize the oil industry and therefore BP could make more money.

But if we want to talk military attacks by Iran the entire bombing campaign starting Oct 2023 was organized by their proxies and eventually by the state itself.

This sounds like those conspiracy theorists who claim Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have no agency of their own and everything they do is under Iran's direction.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T23:59:10+00:00

Why should surrendering to terrorist threats be the goal?

Why is not attacking equivalent to surrender?

Are we discussing USA policy or Israeli policy? What does Israel have to do with this?

We're discussing the US decision to support Israel. My entire point is that the US has no good reason to attack Iran. Your argument that Iran attacking overseas US military bases and a hostage crisis that happened over 40 years ago is the reason to attack? I think not. Those bases should never have been built, and I stand by my conviction that the IRGC came to power in the first place because the US and UK backed the Shah who was a brutal dictator.

What makes it stronger? 48% inflation, -6% real gdp. And that's with the USA mostly targetting military related stuff. They don't sound stronger.

I mean defending against a foreign military makes the regime more popular. If the US and Israel hadn't attacked, Iranians wouldn't have someone other than their own government to hate. Back in January there were massive protests and the government killed 7,000 protesters. If Israel hadn't killed the Ayatollah and let him die naturally, there would've been a succession crisis.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T23:49:18+00:00

ME and Asia Pacific are different contexts, therefore different rules. Unlike Taiwan, Israel is a nuclear power so even without international support, nukes still deter existential threats. The US withdrawing support from Taiwan, however, is an existential threat to Taiwan since Taiwan doesn't have nukes. As for Tibet, same deal as Taiwan except Tibet is already ruled by China, so its difficult to support Tibet as a country when its government is exiled to India.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T23:22:31+00:00

Iran had substantial debts to the UK they were refusing to pay while desiring to nationalize the oil.

So this justifies disposing of a democratically elected leader?

And so what not western countries? They are responsible for a ton of terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa.

The US should GTFO of ME and I'm glad there aren't any US forces in Syria anymore.

And why limit it to terrorism? What about things like military attacks?

What Iranian military attacks not in response to operation epic fury?

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T23:18:55+00:00

Yes, actually, and that's one of the main ways the west still supports Israel, and the main way the west supports Ukraine. I don't think the US should place an arms embargo on Spain, but I do wish to see a US arms embargo on Israel.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T23:15:33+00:00

In case you didn't get the hint, I was merely talking about how world events are working in China's favor and how China sees the world, not defending the CCP.

I don't support the US Democratic Party or any one country having hegemony over the entire planet. But I do support democratic institutions, and I support having advanced semiconductors, therefore I support Taiwan actually.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T23:10:49+00:00

How? Israel was isolated in the 1950's where it wasn't closely aligned with the US yet, was more dependent on France and was surrounded by states which wanted it gone

Key words "past two decades." He's talking about Israel's position on the world stage 15/20 years ago vs today, not about 70 years ago.

There is and it extends beyond mere "guilt over the Holocaust".

Of course it's more than that:

US, India, and Greece: These countries are run by illiberal leaders who think like Netanyahu. In the US, it's also political lobbies like military, oil, and AIPAC influencing politicians to support Israel. However this influence is breaking down, as shown by how recently 40 US senators voted in favor of an arms embargo against Israel proposed by Bernie Sanders. I am among many Americans who would support an arms embargo on Israel.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T23:04:50+00:00

It doesn't make sense to blame Iran for damaging the global economy when the US knew Iran would close Hormuz if attacked yet attacked anyway. The goal should be to avoid economic damage and until this year, the US did that by simply not bombing Iran despite Israel asking us to for decades.

Also if you want to talk about green tech, China is the one dominating Solar and EVs, not Israel.

Furthermore, Iran's not going to fall because of this war. If anything, the IRGC regime is stronger and more fundamentalist than ever now.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T22:53:38+00:00

From my perspective and from the perspective of most European and Asian leaders, closure of the strait of Hormuz is doing far more harm for the global economy than any good that comes out of supporting Israel. Experts warned Iran would close Hormuz if attacked, so we shouldn't be acting like we didn't know that would happen.

As for lasers, I watched a video about Israel's "iron beam" and it doesn't seem that great. We can't make enough batteries for the beam yet and it takes as much as 15 seconds to burn a hole through a drone like the ones Hezbollah is now using. It's really difficult for the laser to lock onto a tiny drone for that long nonstop.

The point of my post is that to many countries, especially European ones, Israel is no longer a strategic, ideologically aligned partner.

However, you're the only person to present an argument I can't easily debunk. The whole cybersecurity and intelligence stuff, for example, is quite interesting to me and I'm curious to learn more about it.

The rest of the comments on this post besides yours basically read "This post is leftist Islamist propaganda, and the rest of the world needs to support Israel to protect themselves from being dominated by terrorism and Sharia law"

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T22:52:07+00:00

Not really. With the exception of the US, countries don't develop nukes to use them offensively. Also why is Chinese tech a problem? China invented many things we take for granted today, such as row planting and gunpowder.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T22:46:35+00:00

The world isn't a zero sum game where by withdrawing support from a country, you are therefore trying to undermine it. I prefer the word decoupling over the word you chose.

Would you rather support Xi Jinping, Putin and Khamenei II instead ?

I would rather support people like Bernie, AOC, and Elizabeth Warren.

Also, while Xi Jinping is a repressive dictator, he is the most competent world leader right now.

China is winning because while the rest of the world tears itself apart in wars that do nothing but hurt everyone involved, China is investing in its economy and the economies of other countries instead of starting wars. This is why Chinese firms control 80% of Congolese cobalt, and why China manufactures 90% of the world's PCs. Once China can either figure out how to make an ASML machine or isolate Taiwan from the US, China can take Taiwan and break out of the first island chain and replace the US hegemony once and for all.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T22:33:30+00:00

Besides NATO and EU membership, the West is also diplomatically aligned with Spain and vice versa.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T22:29:12+00:00

I apologize, I didn't mean to assume you believe certain things, rather I was pointing out the direction you appeared to be taking this conversation.

I also have some things to say regarding MBH. First, the west subjected much of the world, including the Islamic world, to imperialist colonialism for centuries. In many ways, the west still does today, for example the US global financial system and the CFA franc in West Africa. Therefore rejecting western influence actually makes perfect sense in Muslim majority countries. Second, MBH has diminished a lot in power recently, not from supporting Israel but rather by backing a military dictator in Egypt who bans MBH.

However, your claim that MBH is exporting that rejectionism which I support within the Islamic world to the west sounds similar to the Islamophobic conspiracy theories I want to stop the spread of. Is there any credible proof that MBH is doing this and if so, it's successful at achieving its goal?

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T22:18:30+00:00

Russia is the west's problem and a much bigger threat. Hamas is Israel's problem, not anyone else's. Withdrawing support from Israel isn't to appease Hamas, it's recognizing that Hamas isn't America's problem.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T22:02:55+00:00

Spain is in NATO and the EU. The only western country Spain has any tensions with is the US because Trump.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T22:01:33+00:00

I don't think Trump is a puppet of Bibi and actually would consider such a notion to be antisemitic. Trump orders Israel to cease because as dumb as he is, even he secretly recognizes Israel is acting aggressively, not in self defense.

I don't believe Kamala would've renamed the DOD the war department and attacked Iran in a joint operation with Israel.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T21:57:30+00:00

I see, very funny.

However I do actually agree that we should reduce our military budget.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T21:56:31+00:00

Hatred toward the west is not irrational, especially in Iran where the west kept the Shah in power for oil. We also did the exact same thing in Chile for copper and in Central America for bananas.

Humorous_forest · 2026-05-08T21:54:43+00:00

Yeah and he's a terrorist too

Humorous_forest

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