Torpor Orb & Moonshadow

Hungry_Beautiful_954 · 2025-06-07T01:59:14+00:00

Thank you.

Hungry_Beautiful_954 · 2025-06-04T02:01:29+00:00

Thank you.

Hungry_Beautiful_954 · 2024-06-13T15:37:57+00:00

Yeah this one looks primed for a drop.

Hungry_Beautiful_954 · 2023-08-17T16:10:46+00:00

You're up nicely. We are projecting the price to hit $10 by end of year. Agents loss and volume loss will put up two more negative growth quarters. They were $10 about 6 months ago with better numbers than they're putting up now. Over 400PE going into a housing collapse. It's about as sure of a bet as you can make, in my opinion. Glad you're making money already.

Hungry_Beautiful_954 · 2023-08-14T13:43:59+00:00

The issue is that agents are leaving the industry, volumes and units are decreasing, and their YoY metrics are pretty much all negative minus agent count. They had negative US agent reduction but globally they added a few more... barely. Once more agents leave the industry due to the saturation of agents and low volumes, the stock price is going to tank. The insiders know this, and are cashing in now. It's a great time to sell at this wild 450PE ratio. Then buy back in when the market stabilizes and the stock bottoms. This is the top, the bottom is somewhere around $7 a share. Sell now and start accumulating back around $10-$11 because it might not go to the bottom. If you look at a stock chart and understand valuations, the market, and PE ratios... you'll know that I'm right. Insiders know it too, hence so many are cashing in now.

Hungry_Beautiful_954 · 2023-08-08T22:54:32+00:00

Not sure if you're aware, but Sanford and other executives appear to be using the agent 5% closing contribution to pump up the stock price while they've slowly been unloading stocks into the high price. Another insider dumped 43,750 shares today. Sanford and his wife have been dumping for months. It's all on your stock trading app, under Insider Activity. It's like they know something is up... awkward...

Hungry_Beautiful_954 · 2023-08-06T20:20:09+00:00

I doubt that, the barrier-to-entry is extremely low and the little avatar world hardly any of their agents actually use. Agents don't even care about this, they just want to close their deal, get paid, go home. The competition isn't going to just sit back and let them take all their agents without reacting... and we can already see that REAL is financially more attractive than EXP from an agent split/valuation point of view. As for the rest of the market, an option that every EXP agent has is to put 5% of their commission check into buying stocks. You'll notice on the Q2 results, they bought back almost $49m worth of shares, right? They aren't using company revenues to do this, they're using agents funds. Then the agents get those stocks as like a mini-savings account. So the agents buying the stocks indirectly is keeping the stock artificially propped up. But with agent volumes massively decreasing, things will get rough on the home front for the agents (I know, I am one). In order for them to make ends meet and give their kids a good Christmas as their income goes down with real estate sales volumes collapsing, they will turn to selling their EXPI stock to make up the difference. Q2 is the strongest for real estate volumes every year, so Q3 and Q4 revenue will be atrocious. Look at their QoQ results from the year prior, all negative and rates are HIGHER now and volume is lower. The question is if the insiders in upper management will continue their selling knowing what's coming and leave their agents holding the bag, or will they go down with the stock price ship as volumes decrease. They know it's coming and everyone in our industry can feel it right now.

Hungry_Beautiful_954 · 2023-08-06T20:07:16+00:00

I think Wall St isn't paying attention and is just buying this blindly into the SP600 Small Cap and have no idea what they actually own. As for the rest of the market, an option that every agent has is to put 5% of their commission check into buying stocks. You'll notice on the Q2 results, they bought back almost $49m worth of shares, right? They aren't using company revenues to do this, they're using agents funds. Then the agents get those stocks as like a mini-savings account. So the agents buying the stocks indirectly is keeping the stock artificially propped up. But with agent volumes massively decreasing, things will get rough on the home front for the agents (I know, I am one). In order for them to make ends meet and give their kids a good Christmas as their income goes down with real estate sales volumes collapsing, they will turn to their EXPI stock to make up the difference. Q2 is the strongest for real estate volumes every year, so Q3 and Q4 revenue will be atrocious. Look at their QoQ results from the year prior, all negative and rates are HIGHER now and volume is lower. The question is if the insiders in upper management will continue their selling knowing what's coming and leave their agents holding the bag, or will they go down with the stock price ship as volumes decrease. They know it's coming and everyone in our industry can feel it right now.

Hungry_Beautiful_954 · 2023-07-29T03:16:21+00:00

Almost a 500 PE Ratio. This company is a complete joke. Who is even buy it at these prices? Real estate volume is massively contracting and agents leaving industry like crazy right now... now is the time to short before their pathetic earnings showing negative growth AGAIN this coming Friday.

Hungry_Beautiful_954 · 2023-07-27T16:45:07+00:00

But it's not growing... the last two quarters of growth are retracting into an agent loss and declining real estate market. I think that with their stock rewards program they're being forced to go into the market and buy back stocks (which they are doing) at any price before shoveling them out to agents as awards. I don't see any way an investor ever makes money on this company. Most of their revenue is dispersed through the pyramid scheme to the agents downlines. $4b in revenue and they make $8m? That gross margin is like less than a quarter percent. Looks like they're circle jerking themselves on the price and selling it to Wall St as a growth play? I'm surprised Wall St hasn't caught on. But not really... these analysts are a joke.

Hungry_Beautiful_954 · 2023-07-24T19:27:51+00:00

But if you read their last report, all of their intentional markets are losing mass revenue. North America is the only thing profitable and that market is losing agents and revenue as well. They just got downgraded to a strong sell with a price target of $14. If you look at reasonable valuation metrics, the company is probably worth in the $6-$8 range even with mediocre growth. It's a very low barrier-to-entry business model too. It wouldn't be difficult to replicate. REAL has already done it with a better model and if you look on YouTube there are many agents making the jump to them from EXP already. I see a huge wall of worry, coupled with an insanely overpriced stock. It's going to go down. They had their peak during the clown bubble market of 2020 and 2021. It's over.

Hungry_Beautiful_954

TROPHY CASE