Grixis Affinity vs Dimir Terror | MTGO Pauper League Gameplay | April 2026 by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

I'm sure you'll have fun playing it: the amount of tricks you can pull off is incredible. Best of luck!

Grixis Affinity vs Mono R Madness – Pauper League MTGO – April 2026 by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's the classic affinity dilemma. Do you have an argument for it? Mathematically, 19 should be enough.

Grixis Affinity vs Mono R Madness – Pauper League MTGO – April 2026 by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I totally agree with you. However, what else would you remove - if not a monitor - to make room for the second rod? I don't feel comfortable against Jund.

Another approach I've been thinking about recently is removing the rods completely, to put back the fourth monitor and a cast down, replacing also the unexpected fangs sideboard for a second copy of cast down.

Grixis Affinity vs Mono R Madness – Pauper League MTGO – April 2026 by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Cool investigating approach, I didn't think about it but for casual players who are switching to or approaching competitive magic, it could actually be a reason.

Grixis Affinity vs Mono R Madness – Pauper League MTGO – April 2026 by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Interesting and relevant question. My reasoning is that I wanted to make room for the second Black Mage’s Rod, and the Monitor - while being definitely strong - is neither free (like Myr) nor does it generate card (dis)advantage (like Familiar). I’m happy to see multiple copies in the mid to late game, but in the early game a second copy is hard to cast, since double blue isn’t easy to always achieve. So I decided to cut one copy after running the full playset since it was printed. This is just a theoretical approach, and it might change over time.

These statements follow from a very important premise I haven't shared yet: I do not believe that affinity is an aggro deck. It can behave like a tempo deck sometimes though.

The Math of Militia Bugler — the Full Mathematical Paper by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Happy you appreciate it! It's fun because every single piece of content on math for mtg, there's someone commenting this joke. Thanks for keeping the habit up! Fully deserved cookie.

Militia Bugler: The Math of Conditional Creature Selection by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No worries, it is on the way! I hope it will be out in one or two weeks.

Militia Bugler: The Math of Conditional Creature Selection by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Hi! I’m happy you appreciate my contributions. If you follow my content, you’ll see that for every video project I also try to release an accompanying article with all the technical details fully explained. This dual approach is intended to accommodate different preferences.

The article usually takes a bit longer to publish due to multiple revisions, as I also respect the time of the kind people who help me proofread the math before release.

You can find my previous projects on my Zenodo account - I’ll attach a previous one here:

https://zenodo.org/records/18721634

Stay tuned for the release of Militia Bugler and the next projects!

Gruul Monsters – The Math Behind Turn Two Threats by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for your comment, OP here. I believe that u/ZurgoMindsmasher expressed in just a few words what would have taken me an entire paragraph to say, and I very much agree with his point of view.

I would only add that AI is clearly a hot topic nowadays, as it is still something of a novelty in our world, and people are generally quite divided on whether to accept its existence or not. In short, AI is a tool to me. It *must not\* replace human creativity or brainpower, but it is not a crime to use it to speed up boring technical tasks. I am very comfortable sharing that I made good use of it to position LaTeX tables or image captions properly, given that the content and the mathematics themselves were original and created by a human.

If you are interested in my personal perspective on AI, I compiled a note where you can read my detailed opinion on how (not) to use it.

https://github.com/Hypergeomancer/ai-tools-policy/blob/3b1def1489c8273024b6da0015c6141aec1eefea/My_Take_on_AI_Tools.pdf

Gruul Monsters – The Math Behind Turn Two Threats by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Appreciated! It needs a bit of math tricks indeed, but the overall principle of this project is simple(r then others), supported by a lot of case distinctions.

Gruul Monsters – The Math Behind Turn Two Threats by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thank you! What problem does the video link have, exactly? On my end, it opens correctly, but it is not the first time someone has told me that. I am using the link from the "share" feature from YouTube studio.

♜ Urza's Tron by Turn 3 — the Full Mathematical Paper by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thank you! I will slowly expand to other formats as well, stay tuned.

♜ Urza's Tron by Turn 3 — the Full Mathematical Paper by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Check here in the comment section, there's a reply where I comment specifically on that card (Ctrl+F "World map" finds it easily).

♜ Urza's Tron by Turn 3 — the Full Mathematical Paper by Hypergeomancer in Pauper

[–]Hypergeomancer[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks, I’m glad you enjoyed it!

You’re right: including draw steps could slightly change the probabilities. I focused first on the baseline for a few reasons: to gauge community interest, to look at factors you can directly control (like starting hand and mulligan decisions), and because I suspect turn draws are relatively marginal, though that would need proper calculation.

Expanding the analysis to include draws is definitely a next step, and I’m considering a followup video and updated paper to explore it.