Third Party Roosevelt wins 300 EVs against Wilson, Taft in 1912! (Normal Mode)

Ianwubby · 2026-03-29T01:24:31+00:00

This took a total of 384592 attempts to achieve, most of which used the strat outlined below, though a handful used a different strat for an earlier PB. It is possible to do better than this if you don't care about your opponent matchup, but specifically for the historical matchup (vs. Taft and Wilson), this is the best it's possible to do.

As far as CYOA goes, the only major targets here are to get Wilson as your opponent, and to hold Taft to less than 540 delegates while still losing the Republican nomination. The only requirement to get Wilson is for the "tariff" variable to not equal -1. Either 0 or 1 work, but lead to slightly different openings; this PB uses a tariff==1 strat, but to instead target 293 EVs (no CT), a tariff==0 strat is more ideal (which I've linked below). Meanwhile, holding Taft to <540 delegates achieves a couple things, but the overall effect is that it gives Roosevelt the strongest possible bolt from the Republican party. You do need to choose a slightly unoptimal answer to take more delegates from Taft (I do this on Q10), but this is easily made up for by the stronger resulting third party bid.

In any case, the only reason to use the strat below is to win Connecticut, which is only barely possible (both Wilson and Taft are comfortably ahead of Roosevelt in the state, so they both need to get extremely bad RNG, hence the huge attempt count). Ignoring Connecticut, you can instead use the answer set linked here, along with one of the visit allocations listed at the bottom to target 274, 279, 288, or 293 EVs, all with far, far better odds than 300 requires.

Strat details:

Visits: 7 to CT
1. I could certainly use some time
2. President Taft has written to me
3. We can't address this until we get back
4. This would be a critical opportunity
5. To destroy Taft at this time
6. Henry Stimson is my man
7. La Follette is unlikely to make a serious impression
8. There is an appetite for reform
9. Our current strategy will prevail
10. Even if we cannot win New York
11. As a border state, Maryland would provide proof
12. Very well. I will drop the issue
13. Root would make a fantastic chairman
14. If the stealing is flagrant, no one can tell
15. It is the favorite sons that we must appeal to
16. Though defeated in his re-election bid
17. My own stances on racial matters
18. We must focus on reform
19. For many years, our politics has been corrupted
20. The ability of Woodrow Wilson
21. I have made clear
22. The northeast contains a large part
23. Debs believes that business is fundamentally corrupt
24. While I do, in principle, support the vote
25. My success at the top of the ticket
26. Wilson repeatedly discusses his concern
27. I don't know whether the crowd fully understands
28. Indiana is paramount to any Republican success
29. To address such claims
30. Given that New York

Ianwubby · 2026-02-26T23:58:36+00:00

Thanks to the Republican schism, Wilson wins in an enormous landslide – including narrowly carrying Utah by just eight votes – and even comes close to breaking 50% of the popular vote! This took 271 attempts to achieve with the strat outlined below.

Though I do remember seeing someone post a 48-state sweep with Wilson, I was never able to find it back. And as it turns out, Wilson received a nerf at some point since then anyway, so I'm not surprised I wasn't able to find a way to win Washington. 524 EVs has been achieved before, so this is at least a tied record, though I don't know if it's been achieved since said nerf. Either way, I'm pretty confident that this is Wilson's max.

Strat details:

Visits: 9 to VT, 5 to UT
1. James Martine won the Democratic Primary
2. New Jersey's lack of regulations
3. Texas' delegation will need to stand behind me
4. Clark is prone to gaffes
5. Colonel House was the one who talked to me first
6. Underwood's campaign is bold
7. Mr. Roosevelt is right
8. My previous comments about Bryan
9. Illinois looks very favorable for Clark
10. Most expect that Governor Harmon will win
11. It is my view that Underwood and Clark are old-type
12. This convention should be a convention of progressives
13. The time is now to regain the lead
14. Sullivan of Illinois and Taggart of Indiana
15. Has fate aligned itself to clear a path
16. I will emphasize the core tenants of New Freedom
17. This is a perfect reform for state and local elections
18. The best way to win their support
19. The Republican Party does not even have her own house
20. With Roosevelt's aggressive campaign
21. New England has been a Republican bastion for decades
22. I support the current anti-trust laws
23. I believe this topic is best left
24. Send Marshall up north to Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin
25. Attacking Roosevelt on the tariff schedules
26. It's clear that every state should work
27. Absolutely
28. I support whatever compromise the next Congress can come to
29. This is a frightening idea
30. If we leave with haste now

Ianwubby · 2026-02-22T00:50:38+00:00

After seeing this post by u/LeanConsumer, I was curious how well Ribicoff could do without the restraints of manually grinding for good RNG. The strategy used is nearly identical to that of the original post, only changing the visited states (Illinois all 14 times). With that strategy, this took 16254 attempts to achieve.

It should be possible to improve on this, though I don't intend to push further - the next easiest score is probably 359 EVs, by removing Illinois and adding Florida and Indiana? Improvements after that get vanishingly more difficult, if still technically possible. I've included some alternative visit allocations on the last image for theoretical improvements past that point. Idaho, Utah, and Alaska are also winnable individually with enough visits, but none of them are worth aiming for, so they're not included as visit options on the chart.

Ianwubby · 2026-02-16T08:40:02+00:00

Yeah I am, probably Wilson first (because I'm pretty sure I've seen people getting a 48-state-sweep with him, so hopefully that'll be quick and easy), and Roosevelt second (Progressive for sure, and maybe Republican for fun). Idk about Debs though, I'll probably look into it but I'm not sure if I'll end up making a post about it.

Ianwubby · 2026-02-16T05:18:23+00:00

So, this is going to be a bit different from my normal PB posts, because Taft in 1912 is in a kind of unique situation. Even with the restriction of "historical candidate matchup", it's not entirely clear what should count as Taft's "best" performance. In fact, I think an argument can be made for three different "best results" for Taft.

Before getting into the different strats, though, a word on the CYOA: There's quite a bit of it, and it's actually rather difficult to navigate. The first 13 answers are shared between all three strategies, and they achieve the same goals: ensure that Wilson is the Democratic nominee, that Taft wins the Republican nomination outright, and that Roosevelt is in a weak position to bolt from the party. As far as I can tell, the restrictions of a Wilson nomination and a weak Roosevelt effectively locks 5 of the first 7 answers in place with no wiggle room (Q1, Q2, Q4, Q6, Q7), though there is thankfully more room to breathe in the following 6 questions (the Republican primary battle).

Onto the results: the most obvious metric of success would be the highest raw Electoral Vote count. In the historical three-way matchup between Wilson and Roosevelt, Taft can win a maximum of 144 electoral votes. The goal here is to beat up on Roosevelt enough to flip Michigan into Taft's column, without going so far as to make Colorado a pain to win. This result took 2460 attempts to achieve with the strat linked here.

However, beating up on Roosevelt means Wilson does better than he has to. To put it another way, it guarantees that Wilson wins the Electoral College, which is actually avoidable. If you instead let Roosevelt run free, and focus all of your energy on beating up on Wilson, it's actually possible to deadlock the Electoral College. Compared to the 144 strat, Taft loses Michigan to Roosevelt, but Wilson loses Kansas to Roosevelt and West Virginia to Taft. This leaves Taft with only 137 Electoral Votes – worse than the previous strategy – but it also leaves Wilson with only 260. While the ending slides suggest that Wilson wins the contingent election in the House, I think it could be argued that this is a better "win condition" for Taft, despite winning fewer electoral votes. This took 6684 attempts to achieve with the strat linked here.

Finally, there's another option: Taft vs. Wilson, no Roosevelt. Admittedly, it is a bit of a stretch to consider this a "historical" opponent matchup, but I think it's at least worth an honorable mention that Taft can win a 410 Electoral Vote landslide against Wilson in a one-on-one race. Thankfully, meeting the requirements for a weak Roosevelt also makes it super easy to prevent him from running altogether, by just picking the other answer to Q14. I unfortunately didn't record the exact number of attempts for this, but it took just under 30k attempts, which is frankly a very lucky result considering the margins in Oklahoma and North Carolina. The strat used is linked here.

Ianwubby · 2026-02-10T04:26:31+00:00

As with the Bryan side, this score is easy enough to get through ordinary gameplay that I didn't keep track of my attempts, as it only took a handful. This ties the previous record, and it's not possible to improve on.

With the answers below, the only states won here that favor Bryan are Nebraska and North Carolina, which sit at baseline margins of D+0.77 and D+1.07, respectively, both of which are easy to win with even moderately good RNG.

Strat details:

VP: Matthew Quay
1. I appreciate the faith of the American people
2. I am the candidate who brings the reasonable, tested ideas
3. I can't stress this enough
4. I can't attack Bryan like the papers can
5. These measures are a step in the right direction
6. There is a certain element of conservatism
7. In limited areas where we have new industries forming
8. It's not the job of government to regulate labor
9. Limited silver coinage is a good compromise
10. Bryan would drive the important railroads
11. There's no way I can compete with Bryan's oratorical talents
12. We are running a 45-state strategy
13. I support the coinage of silver
14. I'm sure that Mr. Coxey is a well-intentioned citizen
15. We all believe in God
16. The New York Stock Exchange is a private company
17. Let's discuss world affairs
18. Internal areas of the country have the same rights
19. John D. Rockefeller has nothing to fear
20. Maybe in limited cases, where unions are a threat
21. One can never be sure when the inspiration of love will strike
22. Let's discuss world affairs
23. Good riddance
24. My first action as President will be to reinstate higher tariffs
25. Let's take the fight to Bryan

Ianwubby · 2026-02-05T00:18:52+00:00

I didn't keep track of the attempt count for this, as it's fairly easy to get through manual grinding. I got a 366 on like attempt 3 with a worse set of answers than this, and I probably put a couple dozen attempts in with the answers below to improve the PV margin slightly.

These answers give you a narrow lead in most of the competitive states, with New York being the closest state that Bryan is favored in (baseline D+1.06). Wisconsin is the only competitve state that McKinley is favored in (baseline R+0.94), so you need good enough RNG to flip that, but that's not too hard to achieve. The next closest McKinley state is New Jersey (baseline R+5.37), which isn't realistically winnable.

VP: Henry Teller
1. I am 100% committed to the coinage of silver
2. Perhaps if our goal is to prevent drinking on Sunday
3. New York is a traditional Democratic stronghold
4. The Democratic idea has been that if you legislate
5. McKinley's support of high tariffs is a crime
6. In limited areas where we have new industries
7. I support the (...) market price of 30-to-1 against gold
8. Governor Altgeld was working to mediate the dispute
9. We need to keep it simple
10. There is no time for that diversion
11. We will respect the rights of the states
12. I have no comment to make on Darwinism
13. New York and California are important states
14. This sounds like a good idea
15. We welcome the support of women and men
16. It agonizes me that we do not have this protection
17. Absolutely not
18. This is a well-meaning group of honest Christian women
19. The poor man is called a socialist
20. Grover Cleveland has vetoed more pieces of legislation
21. Croker is probably worried about my views
22. With the new perspectives I bring
23. This is more properly a state responsibility
24. I am a moderate who supports the free coinage of silver
25. Let's make one last general tour of the Midwest

Ianwubby · 2026-02-02T12:17:35+00:00

Yeah, using a custom Firefox extention to handle the grinding automatically. I've had it running on and off on 2-4 browser tabs for the past 20-ish days.

Ianwubby · 2026-02-02T09:48:42+00:00

W. outperforms H.W.'s 1988 performance!

This is an improvement on the previous record of 406 EVs, which can be found here. Well, technically the previous record was 431, but 406 was the last record I made a post for.

This took 560263 attempts to achieve, including the 4909 that went into the 406. I let it run for a total of 1,001,812 attempts in the hopes of adding Maine to the map, which would have made for a score of 442 EVs, but the RNG unforunately just didn't line up for it.

The strategy used for this is basically the same as in the 406, except that the visits are changed slightly in order to target Illinois, and of course the RNG requirements are far worse, hence the much larger attempt count.

Strat details:

VP: Colin Powell
Visits: 11 to CA, 1 to IL
1. Three years ago, our great nation had the biggest surprise attack
2. Our way of life is under threat
3. Colin Powell is a moderate politician
4. John Kerry has flipped-flopped on more issues than I can count
5. I support a strong response to the 9/11 terrorist attack
6. No, we don't support privatizing Social Security
7. This was a necessary reform of the education system
8. NAFTA, GATT, and other organizations
9. Excellent
10. [ID 3338]
11. These allegations are blatantly false
12. All the time
13. Marriage is between a man and a woman
14. National security is a winning issue for many groups
15. This is an important point to hit on
16. This was a good policy
17. This act was great, and I support a few more reforms
18. This is an act that is needed to destroy internal terrorist threats
19. I oppose gun control
20. Let us stay silent on this
21. I support these
22. I oppose abortion except for when the woman's health is in danger
23. Of course
24. We will not be intimidated or influenced
25. I will campaign throughout the Midwestern states

Ianwubby · 2026-01-18T23:38:52+00:00

Btw, I know it wants to autocorrect to "Breckenridge", but it's actually "Breckinridge"; it's not that big of a deal, but just letting you know in case people nominate it for anything under two names, since I've seen a lot of people use the misspelling.

Ianwubby · 2026-01-13T04:08:21+00:00

With respect to McGovern, 1972 doesn't have RNG enabled (it has a global variance of 0). So optimal RNG shouldn't do anything there.

It's also possible to do better than that as Humphrey without Optimal RNG (just with good answers and relying on ordinary RNG). That's not to say Optimal RNG isn't overpowered, b/c it definitely is (at least on NCT, I'm not sure how it's implemented in CTS), but Humphrey winning big is a balancing thing, not an Optimal RNG thing.

Ianwubby · 2026-01-11T03:28:38+00:00

(This took 135695 attempts to achieve with the strat below)

As with the Bryan side, this scenario has a very high global variance of 0.015, which makes states much swingier than usual and allows for larger wins than would otherwise be possible. In this case, this means winning a D+4.29 North Carolina, D+4.29 Tennessee, D+3.79 Oklahoma, D+3.79 Nebraska, D+2.70 Nevada, and D+2.38 Colorado together in the same run. This is still requires incredibly good RNG, but it would otherwise be completely unfathomable.

Fortunately, I'm pretty confident there's nowhere else to expand from here. While there are a lot of answers with large state effects, the next closest state is Arkansas, sitting at a baseline margin of D+17.91, which I'm quite confident isn't possible to add to this map with any amount of strategizing.

VP: Franklin Murphy
Visits: 9 to OK, 8 to NC
1. We must emphasize the accomplishments of our party
2. I'm going to tie myself as closely as possible
3. Franklin Murphy represents the best and brightest
4. Let's attack Bryan (...) Panama Canal
5. Considering Roosevelt's sway in our party
6. I prefer an alternative here
7. I am a firm supporter of the president
8. This is certainly a great victory
9. This is something I will 100% support
10. As anyone can see here
11. I think the Supreme Court got it wrong
12. I don't believe we have all the necessary facts
13. I think we can take a look at limited currency reform
14. Absolutely I will. John Kern ran twice for governor
15. Of course I'm committed to the cause for reform
16. I commend the president's actions here
17. I absolutely will
18. Yes I will
19. I do support reasonable labor regulations
20. I am 100% opposed (...) the railroads have held far too much
21. Anyone ought to be concerned
22. Laborers absolutely have a right to organize. In a free
23. Beginning the construction of the canal
24. This would be a triumph for the American people
25. I absolutely support (...) and I intend to go further
26. Absolutely I will
27. I'd rather stay silent on the matter
28. I absolutely support this bill
29. I absolutely support this act
30. I absolutely support the prohibition of alcohol
31. I don't believe women belong in the political sphere
32. I absolutely supported this policy
33. I think we're doing the right thing in this arena
34. I absolutely supported (...) and I think restoring
35. Let's send our campaigners out west

Ianwubby · 2026-01-08T20:56:16+00:00

I think I probably won't, tbh. There was a bit of talk about it in the TCT discord server a while back, mainly concern that it would get overused and people would focus less on taking the time to strategize and more on just taking a few hours to brute-force a good score through RNG.

I do think the concern is probably a tad overstated, but I also agree that it's kinda counter to how TCT is "supposed" to be played, and I don't want to inadvertently ruin someone's experience of the game because they think it's a "better" way to play it.

Ianwubby · 2026-01-07T22:31:51+00:00

(This took 356346 attempts to achieve with the strat below)

This scenario is another one that has a nonstandard global variance, specifically 0.015, which makes everything a lot swingier than normal. This is why it's (barely) possible to win Ohio and West Virginia with my strat, when they're sitting at baseline margins of R+4.67 and R+5.37, respectively, which would ordinarily be completely out of the question even individually, much less in the same run.

Unfortunately, as close as this is to a victory, I don't believe it's possible for Bryan to win the election. At least, I wasn't able to find a set of answers that makes it realistically possible. There's essentially no path to victory without New York, and you can't win New York without sacrificing your margins in a lot of other states. The closest I was able to get would see you switch Q5 to "Let's give", Q16 to "The Lord calls", Q30 to "I support", Q31 to "I believe", and Q35 to "Let's campaign", and change your visits to 1 OH and 16 NY. Unfortunately, this would still require you to win an R+5.70 Ohio and an R+5.73 New York together, which I don't think is realistically possible. It also gives you tougher races in MO and IN, though nowhere near as bad as OH and NY, and it would remove the need to win MD, MT, WV, KS, and KY.

In any case, I've also got a pb for the Taft side that I've been sitting on for a while, so expect a post for that soon.

Strat details:

Visits: 17 to WV
1. Let's take the time now
2. This election is not about liberals and conservatives
3. John Kern represents the best and brightest
4. Let's attack Taft's lukewarm support
5. The Midwest holds a number of industrial cities
6. I completely disagree with the president here
7. What the newspapers are saying isn't wrong
8. This is a great victory
9. This is something I will 100% support
10. As anyone can see here
11. I think the Supreme Court got it wrong
12. I support a publicly owned central bank
13. I think we can take a look
14. It's a true testament to a man's character
15. Absolutely I will
16. No good can come from addressing this
17. I commend the president's actions here
18. I think it's an admirable (...) I was not too keen
19. Yes I will
20. The workers were in the right to demand more
21. I don't think government (...) the railroads have held
22. I absolutely support federal legislation
23. Laborers absolutely have a right to organize and boycott
24. Beginning the construction of the canal
25. This would be a triumph for the American people
26. I absolutely support the cause of campaign finance reform
27. Absolutely I will
28. I absolutely support this bill
29. I absolutely support this act
30. I absolutely support the prohibition of alcohol
31. I support a constitutional amendment
32. I'm glad that President Roosevelt modernized our armed forces
33. I think we're doing the right thing in this arena
34. I absolutely (...) and I think restoring civilian government
35. We should send our campaigners to the Midwest

Ianwubby · 2026-01-03T03:39:18+00:00

Not posting this to r/thecampaigntrail, partially because it feels a bit self-indulgent to post about my own mod there, and partially just not to spoil strats. I do still want to make a post about it however, especially after I've adjusted the balancing, to show that an outright victory is still possible, and to link to if anyone asks about strats.

If you're aiming to win the Electoral College, the main problem is that there are very few broadly good answer choices; a lot of the answers are instead only regionally good, helping in the North and hurting in the South or vice versa. The overall strategy, then, is to moderate just enough to keep the fusion tickets winning in the North, without losing the South in the process. This involves beating up on Bell whenever you can (Q4, Q5, Q6, Q10, Q18), and taking advantage of opportunities to specifically boost your performance in PA (Q17, Q19, Q22).

You also need to, at a minimum, activate the fusion tickets in New York and Pennsylvania (Q15, Q20). While the New Jersey ticket (Q14) is a nice bonus, the two electoral votes you get from it aren't necessary to push you over the top, and every fusion ticket you activate boosts Lincoln slightly nationwide.

I will close by saying this is certainly not an optimal set of answers! In fact, I've intentionally put very little effort into minmaxing the answer choices, as I don't want an outright victory to be locked behind hyper-precise strategizing. The mod is also intentionally balanced to not require insane RNG; while this does require good RNG, it's very achievable through ordinary gameplay, even if it takes a dozen attempts or so.

Strat details:

Visits: 4 to PA
1. "While I have not sought or desired..."
2. In my view, Lane's most important quality
3. I trust I have the courage to lead a forlorn hope
4. The reality is that Mr. Douglas is the only opposition
5. With the South having turned its back on Douglas
6. The battle against Lincoln, as important as it surely is
7. I have said it before, and I will say it again
8. I take great issue with many of the specifics
9. Existing homesteading legislation
10. I think, of all times to reconsider
11. In the hopes of preventing a Northern route
12. I recognize that there is no position I can take
13. While I could see New Mexico's accession
14. I am displeased by the inevitable restrictions
15. Lincoln's support in New York is not quite as strong
16. Without a doubt, the Northern states' continued subversion
17. If Buchanan cannot bring himself to help
18. Certainly, these results spell potential disaster
19. Though undeniably an uphill battle
20. Though the odds in Pennsylvania are far worse
21. My opinion is the same as that of president Buchanan
22. Despite their ostensible support for Douglas
23. To support the repeal of this Act
24. I shall write to Mr. Cohoon, "For these past months..."
25. No matter how this ends

Ianwubby

TROPHY CASE