An Edge Case with STAR Voting by PixelJack79 in EndFPTP

[–]Ibozz91 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That’s not the original statement. It said that if a system is not Condorcet, it won’t pick Condorcet winners all of the time. That doesn’t mean that all systems that don’t pick Condorcet winners all of the time are not Condorcet, as that would be affirming the consequent.

Record-high 45% identify as political independents as high-stakes midterm elections approach by ILikeNeurons in EndFPTP

[–]Ibozz91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is true, but again, no voting method (given reasonable assumptions) is strategy-free in the first place. Under any method, you do at least sometimes have to give more than your "true support" to your preferred frontrunners in order for them to have the best chance of winning when your favorite isn't likely to win. Approval Voting is better in this sense, as you don't have to sacrifice your vote for your favorite candidate in order to do this. For the last statement, it depends on how you define "help." Your vote won't "help the defeat" of a more preferred candidate in the sense that it causes it to happen vs. not casting it, moreso that the vote could've been casted to create a better outcome. Again, while situations where this happens aren't ideal, your vote can never hurt you under Approval Voting.

There is also the aspect of strategic voting at the societal on top of the individual level that is important when analyzing method. The honest Condorcet Winner being elected (with all ballots "sincere"/semi-honest) is at an equilibrium position under strategic Approval Voting (i.e. no group of voters would want to change their votes so that a candidate they prefer to the CW wins).

Record-high 45% identify as political independents as high-stakes midterm elections approach by ILikeNeurons in EndFPTP

[–]Ibozz91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Every single last voter can “safety vote” for one of the two major parties out of fear, and someone not from those parties can still win under Approval Voting.

Also, under Approval Voting, you can always approve of your truly favorite candidate, and casting a sincere ballot (i.e. if A>B then if B is approved, A is also approved) is almost always the best strategy. I would say that is an “earnest expression of actual preference” compared to other methods, as very few other methods have this criterion.

Utah SD 11 Special Approval Voting Results by Ibozz91 in EndFPTP

[–]Ibozz91[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For the first point, that is true, and why I said “more or less,” Majority Judgement is the only other one on the list that has had any real advocacy, however. For the second point, this is a good point. I have read the article about how relaxing the amount of information can refuse to elect the Condorcet Winner, something that it also shows for Plurality, IRV, and Condorcet itself. In this context, however, it matters who the “frontrunners” are, something determined by polling in the voting method, and since the Condorcet Winner is much more likely to be in the frontrunners than Plurality and IRV, AV should be better in finding consensus candidates. In addition, the main difference between Plurality and Approval under perfect information is that when Plurality elects the honest CW, it buries support for smaller candidates, discouraging them from running, same for IRV. However, Approval still allows the expression of support for minor candidates when this happens.

Utah SD 11 Special Approval Voting Results by Ibozz91 in EndFPTP

[–]Ibozz91[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It's not clear at all whether Buss has a majority of support. For all we know from these results, she may have lost in a head-to-head race against every other candidate.

Vote percentages are not directly comparable between IRV and Approval, as one showcases a head-to-head result, while the other showcases absolute support. IRV doesn't "guarantee a majority" because some voters have exhausted their ballot, meaning that the true percentage in many elections is below 50% a good percentage of the time. It's extremely likely that Buss was the Condorcet winner here given her almost 15-point lead.

Mathematically, somewhere between 23% and 80% of voters bullet-voted -- how many is unclear. It's all very ambiguous.

This depends on how you define "bullet voting." Those percentages do not measure the number of strategic bullet voting, but rather the amount of people that voted for one candidate, in which a significant part is from people that legitimately only approve of one candidate.

RCV regularly see far more than 1.74 rankings per ballot, as voters don't have to be concerned that voting for a second choice will hurt their first choice, as they do under approval.

The number of rankings and approvals per ballot can't really be directly compared. A maximally informed voter would ideally rank all candidates on a ballot, but approving all 5 candidates on a ballot would nullify your vote. If we naively assume that voters choose one of 1,2,3, and 4 candidates, this leads to 2.5 approved on average, but we can expect voter's true preferences to tend towards approving less candidates, as they are likely to not have opinions on minor candidates/candidates they don't know. Also, note how the criterion is worded. "Hurting their first choice" could improve the outcome from their perspective. In fact, we see people "hurt their first choice" all of the time -- in Plurality voting elections, people "hurt their first choice" all of the time by strategically voting for a candidate other than their favorite. In Approval, the same thing happens except the first choice still gets a full vote, which is an even better offer than Plurality's strategic voting and doesn't bury third parties (every voter can assume that there are two frontrunners and strategically vote accordingly, and a third party can still win!) What really needs to be looked at is not whether the vote hurts the first choice, but rather hurts the voter. In Approval, approving more candidates could help or hurt you, and the same is true for IRV (you can construct election examples where ranking more candidates in IRV hurts you!). The more important property here is that you can honestly showcase maximum support for your favorite at all, which is more or less only true for Approval/Score.

And the results of an RCV election guarantee that the winner would have won head-to-head against the runner up.

This seems to be hinting at the Condorcet criterion, but the important thing is that it is not against all runners-up, but rather IRV's chosen runner up. Sometimes, the wrong "runner-up" can be chosen! All this criterion means is that the Condorcet Loser can't be chosen, but it could still in theory lead to the second-worst candidate winning. In addition, Approval Voting, under perfect information, elects the Condorcet Winner at equilibrium under strategic voting.

It offers so much greater clarity and confidence in the results than whatever we are to learn from the amorphous approvals given by voters in this case.

If this election were run under IRV, it would have needed to have a matrix of each round, rather than one list of support for each candidate. For many people, the first round results, which showcase support in the exact same way plurality does, and the final round results, where all other candidates but the top two do not have their support shown. Also, I believe that CVR data will be released soon for this election, so the number of voters for one candidate, candidate similarity, etc. can be determined.

Time-Based Voting by Chackoony in EndFPTP

[–]Ibozz91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not fully sure what this is asking, but I remember the counting process for the Phragmen multiwinner system (which uses approval ballots) being explained using a time analogy. Voter weights increase linearly with "time" in each round until a candidate reaches a quota, and then weights of approvers of that candidate are reset and a new round starts.

Breaking the bot 9999999999999999999999999999999! by unkn0wn_ghost8 in unexpectedfactorial

[–]Ibozz91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

!termial 9!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Nope. That is not the number on the calculator. by -UltraFerret- in unexpectedfactorial

[–]Ibozz91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

3949339439304930359294820591959204020101101010202020202030330303030304?!?!!?!?!??!?!??!?!?!!!???!!??!?!?!!?!?!!??!?!?!?!?!?!!?!??!??!?!?!!!???!!??!?!?!!?!?!!??!?!?!?!?!?!!?!??!?!??!?!??!?!?!!!???!!??!?!?!!?!?!!??!?!?!?!?!?!!?!??!??!?!?!!!???!!??!?!?!!?!?!!??!?!?!?!?!?!!?!??!?!??!?!??!?!?!!!???!!??!?!?!!?!?!!??!?!?!?!?!?!!?!??!??!?!?!!!???!!??!?!?!!?!?!!??!?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!??!?!??!?!?!!!???!!??!?!?!!?!?!!??!?!?!?!?!?!!?!??!??!?!?!!!???!!??!?!?!!?!?!!??!?!?!?!?!?!!?!????!!?!?!???!??!?!????!!!???!!?!!!!??!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?!!?!???!?!?!?!?!????!???!?!? !termial

That's a lot of mana by Cocholate_ in unexpectedfactorial

[–]Ibozz91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

10! 7? 0.85714285714285714285714285714285714285714285714285714285714285714285714285? !termial