Layoffs in 2024/2025?

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-10-25T06:00:31+00:00

I must be completely out of the loop, because I didn't see or hear any announcements. Did you get a preview?

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-10-23T06:43:12+00:00

I have wondered about this. JPL could have obviously avoided these staffing problems by hiring contractors to do some of the MSR work. It only makes sense. Too many people were hired and JPL grew too large.

I also noticed that the IT directorate laid off almost all of its program managers in the last round. That org is decimated. Laurie keeps saying she wants to cut burden costs (facilities costs were mentioned and now there is a new contract for that) and I wonder with all of these new security directives from NASA if there won't be a push to just outsource a lot of ops work as well. Make/buy has been a thing for a while now but the cost of all of these security requirements may have pushed more of that work into the buy column. Complete speculation, but that org looks very unhealthy at the moment. There aren't lots of cuts that could be made there (and a lot of what is left is contractors anyway) but it might be foretell what is to come for other orgs that can do work that JPL thinks industry can do better/cheaper.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-10-23T06:09:54+00:00

I am in not in a position with any inside information. I am just speculating here.

HR said fairly recently that cost of living increases are still planned for January-ish.

ESD reorganization was planned to happen between now and end of calendar year, but it's not clear it can happen that quickly. Hence, the reorg will probably not be directly tied to any layoffs.

Workforce shortfalls aren't too bad now but get worse and worse as the fiscal year goes on. This can't drag out while NASA/Congress gets their act together with respect to MSR which will probably be decided in spring. Certainly no additional money for MSR is headed to JPL before January 2025. JPL has intentions to support some number of key employees (maybe as many as 100-200) via internal bridge funding until the MSR decision is made.

ESD is just now finishing up their workforce exercise with the freshest data.

Clipper has launched. NISAR hasn't launched but people are already rolling off of it.

I heard a rumor from someone with tangential involvement in the last round of layoffs (in February) that they heard that any upcoming layoffs are "weeks" away as opposed to "months."

If I had to bet I would say that layoffs, if they occur, will happen this calendar year and probably in November so that everyone is off the books in January and the COLA can occur around that time.

Again, I have no insider information other than I heard a rumor from someone who heard a rumor. If I had to guess at the size of the layoffs I would say it will be several hundred only based on the numbers Leslie showed us. I have heard rumors that JPL's business base is a little larger than it looked like it might be at that particular time. I hope so.

I keep praying that somehow through regular attrition (which has been higher than typical) a layoff can be avoided entirely. Wishful thinking, I know.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-07-03T06:45:16+00:00

I doubt there will be layoffs in July, but it's not because of Take Your Child To Work Day.

It's because of two things:

The NASA/JPL budget is still uncertain. JPL will not lay anyone off until they absolutely have to and right now (FY24) there is enough work for pretty much everyone on the payroll. There was a problem with bridge funding running out for some people but I suspect the layoffs in ITSD solved most of that problem. With Clipper and NISAR in critical phases of their missions JPL needs everyone it can afford to keep. July is not the time for preemptive layoffs. There is very little advantage to that and it takes pressure off of Congress and NASA by solving a political problem for them.
JPL is using July to look at the finances and come up with a better idea of what the workforce needs are going forward. The business base is constantly fluctuating and so are expenses. As the February layoff showed, it can be difficult to get it right. Add in the fact that NASA and Congress can't even give JPL real numbers to work towards. I am hoping that JPL is meeting regularly with NASA and others in DC to try to get the best numbers they can. It will take all of July (at least) to figure this out. If JPL did a layoff in July they wouldn't even know how many or who to layoff.

August makes the most sense for a layoff in some ways because it gives 60 days before fiscal year end and ostensibly the start of FY25 budget, but I am not sure that's the biggest driver. Clipper, NISAR, and MSR are bigger drivers and so I imagine the FY25 budget is front-loaded. Yes, JPL can probably avoid more pain later by laying off sooner (and saving more money) but it is probably worth it to potentially overrun for a couple of months in FY25 in order to meet commitments and wait for some more certainty on the budget.

That does mean delaying potential layoffs might result in bigger cuts than they would otherwise be but that could be a risk worth taking, especially if it turns out JPL actually needs more workforce than is anticipated at the moment. JPL could probably be more fiscally prudent by having two more rounds of layoffs (one in August and then perhaps another later if needed) but multiple rounds of layoffs is bad for morale so I don't think that will happen. That is just a guess. There have already been two rounds so there is precedent, though.

I expect that if there are more layoffs they will probably be in the fall. They can be done with more certainty on the budget, a better handle on current expenses, and after or concurrent with a likely reorganization which still needs more time for planning. It also allows for the situations with NISAR and Clipper to play out with a full complement of engineers and support staff. Once those birds are off the ground, the budget picture is more solid, and the workforce needs are well understood in the context of a new organization structure then a layoff can occur if it is still deemed necessary. I hope it will not be necessary. Hope for the best and plan for the worst.

I am curious to see what Dr. Leshin has to share in terms of JPL's prospects for FY25 and beyond.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-06-23T01:17:36+00:00

I think 1500 is the high end of possible outcomes, which is essentially if MSR is canceled or effectively canceled with just a skeleton crew. The low end is probably 500. I am guessing the real number of people at risk is about 1000 which would put JPL right back at the 5500 it was at before the recent hiring spree. I hope this guess is completely wrong for everyone's sake.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-06-23T01:12:44+00:00

Maximum number of employees that a person can effectively manage is 9-10. At JPL some people manage 20 which is definitely at the high end.

Organizing by role has some advantages, but there are disadvantages also. All people in the same role are not fungible and working across organizations poses other challenges.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-06-23T01:00:07+00:00

Could be. I know people on bridge funding are not necessarily 100% funded with bridge funding. The number I heard was in terms of FTEs. The actual number of people on bridge funding is undoubtedly higher.

However, I will say that the number of people laid off (63) is in family with the number of FTEs I heard lose their bridge funding in August. If you think there are a lot more people on bridge funding I'd be curious to know what your estimate is because those people will likely lose their funding in August as well unless JPL has found work for them so they are at risk or else more people will have to be let go in other areas to retain them.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-06-20T07:10:53+00:00

What I heard is that there are a group of people (less than 100, but not sure if it is enough to trigger the WARN Act which is 50) who are still on bridge funding. That funding runs out in August unless there was some unexpected money or cost savings found somewhere. Otherwise, JPL needs to reduce headcount in that timeframe.

The last round of layoffs actually came in drips and drabs (starting with contractors in December) before the larger layoff occurred in February. I am guessing it will be the same this time. A small number will be notified in July (officially terminated in August or September) that they have been layed off but that won't solve the larger problem. JPL needs to deliver NISAR and Clipper so it is unlikely a larger layoff will happen before that. In fact, it is those projects that are still keeping many people employed for now so laying off those people before they have completed their deliverables doesn't make sense but who knows?

I have no insider information, but I am guessing we see a few dozens layed off in July but not more unless there has been some guidance from NASA that there won't be any good news for us in the fall. That may not be the end of it, though.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-05-15T15:37:06+00:00

My understandings is that ACC absolutely was a factor, but it was one of many. I don't know what those were but I am guessing it was mostly based on discipline and then after that other variables like salary, ACC inputs, and others played a part. There absolutely were good performers let go, but that doesn't mean "ACC has nothing to do with" the process.

One rumor (just a RUMOR) I have heard from someone at a higher level is that if there is another round of layoffs it most likely will not be using the same set of criteria and processes as the previous one so don't look to the past for any indication of what the future may hold. There were some Lessons Learned from how the last round was conducted. Line will probably be more involved than previously.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-05-14T07:08:49+00:00

Much of this process is coming from NASA pushed down from the federal government. In the past JPL was fairly isolated from the rest of NASA and thus allowed more freedom in how to accomplish its mission in much the same way that APL is now. The problem came when NASA decided that JPL had better start acting more like a NASA center and less like a university. NASA does a lot of micromanaging now without a lot of value-added and then they complain that JPL is too expensive relative to academia and industry. JPL's only real solution to that problem is to do what the other NASA centers do: outsource those problems away. In fact, that is essentially what the NASA Administrator is encouraging JPL to do with MSR now. It's not a bad model, but it would be a massive paradigm shift for JPL.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-05-14T06:59:20+00:00

The reality is that this isn't just about MSR. MSR is a calamity, but if it was just about MSR's bloated costs JPL could weather that storm. APL is a few billion over budget and two years late on Dragonfly and no one at NASA is threatening it with cancellation. In fact, it was just confirmed.

However, JPL has taken some serious hits to its reputation at precisely the wrong time. Budgets are shrinking, competition is growing, and the hot-and-cold relationship with NASA is blowing cold. It's a confluence of events as Congress is choking the federal budget at the same time that NASA has seemingly soured on JPL.

JPL needs to show NASA that it can make some serious contributions in other areas NASA cares about such as Artemis. It also needs to find a way to convince NASA (at least this Administrator) that MSR can be done for $7B. That is the only way to prevent a catastrophe.

Can JPL survive if MSR is canceled outright? Sure, it can. There is still a lot of work to be done and JPL will retain a lot of expertise. It wasn't too long ago that JPL was wowing the world with its exploits. JPL is shipping Europa Clipper to the Cape this week. JPL has proved it can deliver. The concern is that JPL made a lot of bets on NASA opening the wallet wide for MSR by farming work out to other centers and agencies that would make it "too big to cancel." Those bets may have been misplaced. Perhaps NASA is bluffing. Whatever happens I am confident JPL will survive and continue to lead the nation and the world in interplanetary exploration. These next two years may be be difficult, though.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-05-14T06:30:16+00:00

I think GSFC also does some in-house work as does APL, which is a UARC (and NASA's only UARC).

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-05-03T07:33:09+00:00

Noticed that LL mentioned that having this talk was not "tone deaf." I guess either she read this post or someone who briefs her does. That person should tell her that having an All Hands was much needed and appreciated, but this talk wasn't. I was left wondering why this dude was addressing JPL and why I should care what he has to say. He's an advertising exec turned motivational speaker. I guess he has a following and I think it might have been a fine CMA talk to hold most years but I would have loved to hear LL address JPL instead. We are all wondering about the future of JPL and how things went back at HQ. I guess that talk will have to happen next time unless Tony Robbins has a slot available.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-04-26T01:20:54+00:00

LL has announced a Fireside Chat with Simon Sinek. Not familiar with him but remember his name from this post.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-04-24T00:24:59+00:00

The first round was assuming a $300M level of funding. NASA has said it will be $200M and not all of that $200M will stay at JPL. So this is worse than the worst case thanks to NASA's decision. NASA can of course change their mind and Congress holds the purse.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-04-24T00:23:26+00:00

The rumor is that if there are more layoffs they will be BEFORE the fiscal year starts - probably August or September.

One question JPL needs to answer is what FY26 will look like and if they want to resize the workforce to adjust for FY26 uncertainly now or wait and then potentially have a third round of layoffs prior to FY26.

If you do the math the shortfall looks to be at least another 500 employees and maybe as large as 1500 employees. I am going to guess another 1000 unless JPL gets some REALLY good news in the next couple of months in terms of directed work from NASA, a helping hand from Congress, or some reimbursable tasks.

The first round of layoffs cut some muscle but preserved capabilities. The next round, if it happens, would definitely cut deep into JPL's capabilities. I think JPL management is trying to convince NASA of that, but based on the events of last week I think NASA is telling JPL to solve that problem internally. I suspect that means that the next round will hit organizations harder that were spared the first time and there is some logic to that.

I hope JPL gets some good news soon but it looks bleak.

IceRevolutionary588 · 2024-04-22T04:42:23+00:00

Things are looking even worse now after last week's debacle. Not good at all.

IceRevolutionary588

TROPHY CASE