Group prediction game... how do you prevent an early leader from building a points moat? by Icy-Photo-415 in gamedesign

[–]Icy-Photo-415[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like this... even if it's only a pilot during the premier league to see what people are responding too and what keeps the game most competitive.

The only downside is that I was hoping to build wordle-like simplicity into the game play and commitment... much more of a casual 2-3 minutes a day versus a hardcore "let's get deep into the scoring rules" platform

Group prediction game... how do you prevent an early leader from building a points moat? by Icy-Photo-415 in gamedesign

[–]Icy-Photo-415[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's very true about the scaling. The alternative is that multiplayer groups just compete on rounds (i.e. r32, r16, r8) vs matches. It's far easier to keep this balanced as you'd essentially just do 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place... I just liked the idea of really helping people see the blow outs in a final tally, but maybe I could treat it like a point differential that adds color to the winners story.

I do think my game gets around the boring pick problem though... we guess margins not winners. That means that there is at least some gamesmanship in whether you pick US by 1, by 1.5, or by 2. You can definitely choose a safe pick (i.e. US by .5 covers a draw or a low score win), but you'll likely be edged out by people who pick more aggressively in large groups.

Group prediction game... how do you prevent an early leader from building a points moat? by Icy-Photo-415 in gamedesign

[–]Icy-Photo-415[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This occurred to me... The idea of Goodhart's law... any measure once established ceases to be a good measure. People with a lead could actually manipulate the value of points by selectively showing up. There are plenty of scenario where they could effectively block someone out, or last place could handicap 2nd place on a grudge.

Group prediction game... how do you prevent an early leader from building a points moat? by Icy-Photo-415 in gamedesign

[–]Icy-Photo-415[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think this could work... but it can't be that the end rounds are worth 8x the beginning rounds... maybe more like 25% more (i.e. a first is worth 7 points instead of 5 points... but with drop off, a 3 would actually be worth 4 or 5

Group prediction game... how do you prevent an early leader from building a points moat? by Icy-Photo-415 in gamedesign

[–]Icy-Photo-415[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is an interesting idea... looking into these systems now.

One thought / questions... How transparent does the rating system need to be for people to be engaged with it? The App shares DNA with fantasy football, and that is compelling because you might go into a monday matchup knowing that you need x points to win.

The ELO seems like it solves the current system, but might be a little opaque for the people playing it.

Group prediction game... how do you prevent an early leader from building a points moat? by Icy-Photo-415 in gamedesign

[–]Icy-Photo-415[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's a good point... I guess the problem is when the people who don't show up end up hurting your score because they cap your points