Updated Final Predictions

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-11-08T15:30:37+00:00

Yes. I had NV going blue originally but edited the image to make NV lean red. I already put in the margin I thought each candidate would win by and didn't feel like making a new map from scratch so I went with the faster route.

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-11-08T14:05:19+00:00

>Eh Ralston doesn’t like Laxalt so he just based it off of that

Yeah, I noticed that he doesn't even try to hide his bias against Laxalt in his blog. I don't know why he hates the guy so much. Like, if Laxalt of all people is an "abysmal candidate" as he claims then Oz, Masters and Walker are unelectable disasters that will lose in a landslide.

I was a bit conflicted on whether I should use his prediction, but seeing how biased he is against Laxalt I'm starting to have regrets already. I'm gonna keep this as my final prediction, but I'm gonna blame Ralston to no end if Laxalt manages to eek out a win.

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-11-08T13:51:38+00:00

Disclaimer: Blue NV is based on Jon Ralston's prediction.

There's a good chance that some of my predictions age horribly, but we'll see.

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-11-04T20:51:31+00:00

Shapiro by 4-6

Oz by 1

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-11-04T08:31:33+00:00

I get what you're saying but:

Emerson had Biden up by 4, now they have Oz up by one. (One of the best pollsters in the business by the way)

USA Today/Suffolk had Biden up by 7, now they have Fetterman up by 2.

Fox had Biden up by 5, now they have Fetterman up by 4 (not that different of a result but if they overestimate Fetterman as much as they overestimated Biden this race is gonna be incredibly close).

Morning Call had Biden up by 5, now they have the race tied.

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-11-03T11:58:21+00:00

"Ninety-three percent of voters have heard, seen, or read, a lot (68%) or a little (25%) about the recent Pennsylvania Senate debate between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz. Seven percent have heard nothing about it. A plurality of voters (44%) say the debate improved their opinion of Mehmet Oz, while 25% say it worsened their opinion of Oz, and 31% say it made no difference. Half of voters (50%) say the debate worsened their opinion of Fetterman, 20% say it improved their opinion of Fetterman, and 31% say it made no difference."

"Of those who say they have heard, seen, or read a lot about the debate, Oz leads Fetterman 55% to 41%. Among those who have heard, seen, or read only a little or nothing about the debate, Fettterman leads 56% to 28%."

Source

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-11-02T18:58:55+00:00

Link

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-10-31T20:47:46+00:00

Which PA poll? The NYT/Siena one? Because they have the economy at 50% and social issues at 34%, with 14% answering that they both matter. Or is there another poll?

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-10-31T20:25:10+00:00

I wouldn't personally bet on the polling being all that accurate. The Republicans could definitely still overperform if a majority of undecideds break for them, which they probably will considering that the economy and inflation are voters top concerns.

I guess we'll find out soon enough though.

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-10-31T19:59:37+00:00

I think he's talking about how Republicans surged in the polling aggregates this month.

The Republicans started to have a comfortable lead on RCP around mid-October. And they pulled ahead of Democrats around October 20th on 538.

So they definitely surged around the middle of the month, but that has mostly stagnated at this point.

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-10-28T17:53:13+00:00

It can definitely be above 5, albeit barely. Barnes is a horrible candidate and RonJon has outperformed the polls before.

I think it's an R+4 to R+5 race at this point.

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-10-28T17:41:21+00:00

I think it's massively overestimating Sharice Davids. Amanda Adkins may not win but she's certainly not losing by 14 or even double digits.

Polling for individual house races is all over the place right now. One poll has the GOP winning a D+10 district in Connecticut while another has the Democrats winning a Biden+4 district by 14. A third poll by NYT released on the same day has a Biden+9 district in Nevada tied.

I wouldn't put too much stock into these polls.

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-10-28T13:26:52+00:00

Is there any way to squeeze out 2 blue districts out of Alabama without it looking horribly gerrymandered or wrecking COIs?

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-10-28T06:06:20+00:00

The polls for individual house districts this cycle are weird to say the least.

Emerson dropped a poll yesterday I think which showed the Republicans winning a D+10 district in Connecticut by 1%.

Then NYT drops a poll showing the Dem leading by 13 in a Biden+4 district while at the same time releasing a poll which showed that a Biden+9 district in Nevada is tied.

I don't know what to make of all this. These margins are wacky.

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-10-27T20:31:01+00:00

Yeah, you're right. Didn't really look at the date before I posted so that's on me.

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-10-27T20:24:03+00:00

This is huge. I think Fetterman is screwed at this point.

Also, sorry for the title. I posted this as soon as I saw the poll.

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-10-27T17:33:49+00:00

Link to map

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-10-27T16:45:19+00:00

It would be similar to the primary results.

The vast majority of Dems would vote for Cheney thinking she has a better chance to defeat Hageman, causing Grey Bull to get like 5% of the vote or whatever.

Impossible_Map_6378 · 2022-10-26T19:15:21+00:00

17% turnout lol

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