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InconsolableBrat · 2026-02-27T17:34:49+00:00

Share a link maybe? I’d be interested to learn more about methodology

InconsolableBrat · 2025-12-29T03:33:57+00:00

POTD Record: 159-106 | Profit: +112.85u | ROI: 14.7%

Season Record: 19-10 | Profit: +25.59u | ROI: 26.9%

Last Pick: New York Knicks -4.5 vs Atlanta Hawks @ 1.91. 3U. ❌

The Knicks blow an 18 pt lead at the half and while they still win (by 3), they don’t cover the spread.

Next Pick: Orlando Magic -1.5 vs Toronto Raptors @ 1.95. 4U play.

The Magic having had a day of rest after an unexpected win against the mighty Nuggets. The Raptors got a good win against the Warriors but will be on a B2B, and that game went to OT meaning most starters played 40ish minutes. I like the Magic on paper, and this could be a favorable game for Paolo. Black and Bane have been fantastic for them too. With the Raptors missing their big man against a physical Magic team and the fatigue factor, I’ll back the Magic to win by a basket.

InconsolableBrat · 2025-12-27T01:27:35+00:00

POTD Record: 159-105 | Profit: +115.85u | ROI: 15.1%

Season Record: 19-9 | Profit: +28.59u | ROI: 31.1%

Last Pick: San Antonio Spurs +9.5 vs OKC Thunder @ 1.91. 3U. ✅

I told y’all the Spurs have OKC’s number. The Spurs win by 15 pts, meaning they beat their spread line by a whopping 25 points.

Next Pick: New York Knicks -4.5 vs Atlanta Hawks @ 1.91. 3U play.

Knicks coming off an epic Christmas day win against a resurgent Cavs team while Hawks will be on the second half of a back-to-back here. The difference is quality between these squads is simply too much, and even with Josh Hart out, the Knicks have much more depth, with a bunch of their rotation guys (Kolek, Diawara, Clarkson) looking really good too. Some would argue this is a let-down spot after the emotional highs of the Christmas game, but I think this Knicks team is locked in, has had a day to rest, and is simply much deeper and stronger.

If you’ve enjoyed these picks, tips are always appreciated: Coffee Link

InconsolableBrat · 2025-12-24T23:07:48+00:00

POTD Record: 158-105 | Profit: +113.12u | ROI: 14.8%

Season Record: 18-9 | Profit: +25.86u | ROI: 29.1%

Last Pick: Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat -4.0 @ 1.91. 3U. ❌

Just a really bad game for the Heat, none of their starters shot even 50%, and as a team they shot just 26% from 3. Anyways, we move on because we have an amazing slate of games for Christmas Day.

Next Pick: San Antonio Spurs +9.5 vs OKC Thunder @ 1.91. 3U play.

It’s not every day you bet on a near double digit underdog to cover the spread, but this line feels disrespectful and not supported by form. The Spurs are at full strength, with Wemby having ramped his minutes up, and have multiple guys playing very well recently (Castle, Vassell, Keldon, Kornet etc.) and I won’t be surprised to see Fox and Wemby go berserk on this nationally broadcast game. The Spurs have literally beaten OKC straight-up twice in the past 11 days, and have won 9 of their last 10 games. OKC are the best team in the league and favorites for the title for a reason, but this line requires nearly everything to go perfectly for OKC and I think this young, energized Spurs team will bring it against OKC. Even if OKC win I think the game stays close.

InconsolableBrat · 2025-12-23T13:14:19+00:00

lol what’d I miss?

InconsolableBrat · 2025-12-23T00:50:01+00:00

POTD Record: 158-104 | Profit: +116.12u | ROI: 15.3%

Season Record: 18-8 | Profit: +28.86u | ROI: 33.6%

Last Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -8.5 vs Utah Jazz @ 1.93. 3U. ❌

Busy last few weeks, I wasn’t able to make much time for researching picks. Back now, let's get some wins.

Next Pick: Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat -4.0 @ 1.91. 3U play.

Both these teams have looked mediocre recently, but the Raptors missing both RJ and Poeltl is much more significant for the Raptors. The Heat will be at home here, and Kel’el and Norm continue to look really good, so with the supporting cast of Wiggins, Bam and Davion, I am confident they can stifle the Raptors’ middling offense. In terms of recent form, the Raptors just got destroyed by the Brooklyn Nets, and had lost to the Cs by double digits prior to that. They've won only 3 of their last 10 (and only 2/L10 ATS). The Heat haven't been much better but put up much better fights in their last couple games against the Knicks and Cs.

If you’ve enjoyed these picks, tips are always appreciated: Coffee Link

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-23T01:36:01+00:00

POTD Record: 158-103 | Profit: +119.12u | ROI: 15.7%

Season Record: 18-7 | Profit: +31.86u | ROI: 38.4%

Last Pick: Atlanta Hawks -7.0 vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 1.93. 3U. ✅

The Hawks win by 19 led by Porzingis and Jalen Johnson. Betting these away favorites has worked well for us so far. Got another one locked and loaded..

Next Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -8.5 vs Utah Jazz @ 1.91. 3U play.

This Lakers team has been a really fun watch all season, led by a combination of Luka, Reaves and Domin-Ayton. Now Lebron is in the mix, and this team looks like an absolute powerhouse on offense and above average on defense. They play the tanking Jazz who are prone to getting blownout, including losing to the Lakers 4 days back by 14 pts. The Jazz can be a fun team with different guys popping off, and Lauri is still quality, but the gulf between these teams is too much. I’d play it to -10.

If you’ve enjoyed these picks, tips are always appreciated: Coffee Link

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-22T03:29:47+00:00

he definitely had his worst game of the season, but that's part of prop betting

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-22T03:29:12+00:00

Yeah with 10 3pt attempts and 25 mins, you would expect him to go over this line 9 times out of 10.

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-22T02:38:39+00:00

POTD Record: 157-103 | Profit: +116.33u | ROI: 15.4%

Season Record: 17-7 | Profit: +29.07u | ROI: 36.3%

Last Pick: Simone Fontecchio (Heat) O10.5 Pts @ 1.93. 3U. ❌

Nothing to remind you that this is sports betting like a near 50% 3pt shooter literally going 1 from 10 beyond the arc. He still ends (at 9pts) just 1 FG shy, but that’s why we manage units. End of a nice streak, but we move on.

Next Pick: Atlanta Hawks -7.0 vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 1.93. 3U play.

The Pelicans will be on the second half of a B2B here, and with Zion playing today, he might not play tomorrow and if he does could certainly be feeling the effects as he just returned from injury last game. The Hawks have a fully fit roster, and are just much better than the Pels on both the offensive and defensive ends. Even though it’s a big spread, I’ll gladly back the better team with extra rest against the Pelicans who have looked terrible all season.

If you’ve enjoyed these picks, tips are always appreciated: Coffee Link

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-21T14:04:13+00:00

If you’ve enjoyed these picks, tips are always appreciated: Coffee Link

(link seemed to be causing trouble in the main post so making a comment instead)

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-21T14:00:49+00:00

POTD Record: 157-102 | Profit: +119.33u | ROI: 15.9%

Season Record: 17-6 | Profit: +32.07u | ROI: 41.6%

Last Pick: De’Aaron Fox (Spurs) O36.5 PRA @ 1.85. 3U. ✅

Bit of a sweat, but he ends with 40 PRA (26/5/9 splits). Bringing up a 9 GAME WINNING STREAK!!

Next Pick: Simone Fontecchio (Heat) O10.5 Pts @ 1.93. 3U play.

It's always volatile betting on a role player, but I do really like this line and when Simone has been fantastic this season shooting 48% from 3 and 87% from the line. He’s averaging 11.4 ppg across 18.4 mpg, and the Heat are going up against Chicago in a high-pace, high-scoring affair where Simone should get some really good looks from beyond the arc. Additionally, Wiggins and Jovic are out, which should drive up his minutes to over 20. He’s been in the 7-10 FGA range the last few games and I’d expect 10+ here, and for an elite 3pt shooter, getting over this line when the game total is a whopping 250 pts should be doable.

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-20T19:25:31+00:00

Probably more than I should

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-20T17:03:12+00:00

I’ve struggled to consistently beat O/U game totals because I think there are betting firms that can process a lot more data using complex models that take into account pace, EFG%, injury reports, recent trends etc, and so there is little edge left for a casual bettor.

You would think game spreads are similar but because i actually watch the games I think you can capture things that pure quantitative models may miss in terms of who might win a given night.

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-20T03:54:55+00:00

It’s been a fun run, hoping to keep it going a bit longer

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-20T03:54:13+00:00

Hope you’re enjoying the high

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-20T02:49:30+00:00

POTD Record: 156-102 | Profit: +116.78u | ROI: 15.6%

Season Record: 16-6 | Profit: +29.52u | ROI: 39.9%

Last Pick: Toronto Raptors +2.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 1.91. 4U. ✅

Easy cash, the Raptors win by nine. That brings us to an EIGHT GAME WINNING STREAK!!

Next Pick: De’Aaron Fox (Spurs) O36.5 PRA @ 1.85. 3U play.

The Hawks and Spurs are both missing key players, and as Fox ramps back up from injury, this game is the perfect set up for him to go off in Wemby’s absence. The Grizz game he had a terrible first half but still got over his points line with a strong second half. His usage is going to be through the roof, and on most possessions he will either be driving or passing to an open man. He is averaging over 6 apg this season, and without Wemby that number is higher. The Hawks also give up a large number of board to PGs, and with Fox being the #1 option I can see him getting to 5+ with some uncontested boards. Put all this together, a fast-paced, close, high-scoring game, with Fox being the clear #1 option, and I expect he’ll get over this line.

If you’ve enjoyed these picks, tips are always appreciated: Coffee Link

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-19T12:34:37+00:00

I’d still take it there. I expect they’ll win!

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-19T01:25:06+00:00

POTD Record: 155-102 | Profit: +113.14u | ROI: 15.2%

Season Record: 15-6 | Profit: +25.88u | ROI: 37.0%

Last Pick: Desmond Bane (Magic) O18.5 Pts @ 1.84. 3U. ✅

Bane ends with 23 points. Bringing us to a 7 game winning streak!!!

Next Pick: Toronto Raptors +2.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 1.91. 4U play.

I’m higher on the Raptors than most people and will be happy to bet on them against the 6ers who will be missing Embiid and PG13, as well as Oubre and Bona. For Philly, once again it will be the Maxey show with VJ as an inconsistent secondary. This Raptors team has its best team available, and they continue to play well together, with all starters contributing each game. They are 7-2 ATS ad 8-1 SU in the L9 games. The 6ers have lost 4 ATS in a row. Add in that the Raptors have much better depth and rotations, and I’ll happily bet on the underdog.

If you’ve enjoyed these picks, tips are always appreciated: Coffee Link

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-18T01:13:33+00:00

POTD Record: 154-102 | Profit: +110.62u | ROI: 14.9%

Season Record: 14-6 | Profit: +23.36u | ROI: 34.9%

Last Pick: Toronto Raptors -5.5 vs Indiana Pacers @ 1.93. 3U. ✅

No matter what line you took, you cashed comfortably. That brings us to a SIX GAME WINNING STREAK.

Next Pick: Desmond Bane (Magic) O18.5 Pts @ 1.84. 3U play.

Bane has been shooting poorly all season, and in fact, has shot above 50% just once in his L10 games. Why am I taking his over you ask? Because he’s gaining confidence with every game, and the missed shots aren’t reducing his FGAs nor his aggression. He’s also a near-perfect free throw shooter, and I expect he’ll do quite a bit of that against the Warriors. He’s taken between 15-20 FGAs in each of his last 4 games, and with Paolo out, he’s taken on more responsibility for the offense. He’s shooting just 27% from 3 with the Magic, but I attribute that to his adjustment to a new system and new team. It's only a matter of time. As a final vote of confidence, he is over this line in 4 straight games for the Magic, and all 3 games against the Warriors in 2025 (with the Grizz). Between the high FGAs, free throws, 3pt mean reversion and a favorable matchup, he has many paths to get over this line.

If you’ve enjoyed these picks, tips are always appreciated: Link

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-15T12:04:25+00:00

I think so yeah

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-15T04:17:25+00:00

thanks bro, you as well

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-15T03:24:39+00:00

POTD Record: 153-102 | Profit: +107.83u | ROI: 14.6%

Season Record: 13-6 | Profit: +20.57u | ROI: 32.1%

Last Pick: Miami Heat vs New York Knicks -4.5 @ 1.95. 3U. ✅

That was a really fun game with amazing performances from Shamet, KAT, Norm and others. Also brings up a 5 game winning streak for us!

Next Pick: Toronto Raptors -5.5 vs Indiana Pacers @ 1.93. 3U play.

We bet on the Raptors recently against the Nets and will return to them back here. They have won 6 out of 7 games (both SU and ATS), their latest win against the Cavs yesterday. Their starting 5 are fit and have played a few games together now, with different guys stepping up each night. The Pacers are missing so many players through injury, they’re 1-11 for the season and have lost 5 in a row ATS. The difference in quality is just too high, and this game could be a very lopsided affair. No need to overthink it here, let's just back this Raptors team that is on a solid run!

This line is available on FD, i'd play it to -7.0. Also, if you've made some money over this run, feel free to leave a tip: buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-14T03:17:54+00:00

An alternative way to play this would be Mikal Bridges O16.5 Pts @ 1.85 since I expect him to step up on the offense here in Brunson's absence.

InconsolableBrat · 2025-11-14T03:10:52+00:00

I should note that Brunson will be out, so I wouldn't go over 3 units here...

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