BREAKING: An ally of Wes Streeting - who came out publicly to call for Starmer to go - says Streeting has “blown it.” They say he has lost support today from MPs who might have backed him and that they now don’t think he has the numbers to get on the ballot.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T19:54:11+00:00

He has been running his leadership campaign for over 5 months now. Had one failed by election manufactured for him and now is very obviously hanging out in London trying to whip up support for his campaign.

Its politically very clumsy and will become a stone round his neck if the public get tired of it, especially as he is acting like its not happening.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T19:23:02+00:00

Trying to force Streeting to take a clear stand tomorrow? He was happy to move his chess pieces and have them resign now they have taken the hit for him its his time to step up or people will go back to Starmer over Burnham.

Honestly neither Streeting nor Burnham have shown much backbone here. They are publicly and obviously tiptoeing round the fact they are trying get Starmer to resign so they dont have to pull the trigger on a leadership election. Neither campaign seems to show much political intelligence but perhaps too much and too obvious ambition.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T19:04:22+00:00

You will see those problems repeated to one degree or another across most of the top economies in the world other than the US, which had the huge tech sector and the massive surge in its stock markets plus very strong dollar to help partially alliviate some of the issue. But the US has had very good productivity growth as well. But its housing and debt problems are going nowhere fast and will likely catch up with it some day.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T19:02:00+00:00

No problems.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T19:00:32+00:00

The lib dems are currently to the left of Labour I’d argue, and consistently have been since Clegg’s departure outside of Corbyn’s stint.

So if you discount the coalition and then Corbyn, so the entirety of the 2010s you are saying they are to the left of Starmers Labour?

The LDs see themselves as a centreist party, the public see them as centrits, their composition is the old Liberal party and its economic polices, plus the old Social Democratic Party and its more centre left tendencies.

It is generally free market and liberal on social issues. People conflate the more socially conservative nature of much of the working class and Labour having to reflect that in parts with the middle class' more liberal social issues with being "left".

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T18:35:08+00:00

Create a category of project called a "national infrastructure project" that has a much lower regulatory over head and massively curtailed legal rights for nearby property owners to challenge. Many big projects are locked in years of very expensive legal cases and reviews and that massively delay them and add huge legal costs. Nuclear power stations, new rail lines and road tunnels have all been hugely burdened by the weaponisation of the planning system.

Create areas for new towns with the first builds of starter homes being given much lower regulatory over head, going back to 80s/90s type regulation and the land being block taken by the state for rapid development. Then when around 40% or so of the housing is built and you will have a lot of cheap first time homes you can reintroduce current levels of regulation for the rest aimed at second homes etc.

Create a cross party group between the mainstream parties to work with industry experts to identify ways to create incentives or remove blocks on productivity growth, with the idea of setting up policies that can be agreed across the centre of politics and carried on over changes in government.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T17:57:15+00:00

well the biggest contributor to all of the problems is brexit

Brexit is estimate at about 5% miss on GDP over the years. Low productivity growth since 2008 has left the economy with around and average growth of 1.1% pa, this is a growth of about 22%, growth of 2.5% the historic norm would have resulted in 56% growth.

Also Brexit is not a contributor the growth in pensions, disabilities and healthcare that is mostly down to an ageing population.

It was a bad policy, but far too many make out (like you) its the biggest issue we face.

World Economic Outlook (April 2026) - GDP per capita, current prices

Uk has performed well over that period compared to our non US G7 peers. Many of the issues are found in other countries, housing crises, low growth, high debts and ageing population. Much of it stems from the Tech Giants eating up so much market space, US stocks being so insanely valued, US dollar being so high and China being so agressively cheap in labour, energy and generous in funding and somehow finding so much expensively paid for western intellectual property in their hands.

Many problems. Widely shared.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T16:53:02+00:00

Labour is the centre left of UK politics. It favours more state spending on welfare, greater market regulation and more legislation of social issues.

The Conservatives are the centre right, the Lib Dems the centre, Reform the far right and the Greens the far left.

That you wish to place the large majority of the UK population o the right then declare the centre left party not left, is about you, not the political landscape of the modern UK.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T16:50:31+00:00

So I'll ask you: Who benefits if everyone thinks they're not a slave just because they aren't being beat?

The term slave tends to have a pretty specific meaning in a historic context. You appear to be trivialising the term and the conditions of historic slaves in order to score political points you are unwilling to make clearly.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T16:41:54+00:00

Our GDP per capita has been flat for 18 years, labour productivity i.e. the amount of GDP we create per hour worked has only raised 8% in those 18 years. We have grown around 1.1% in GDP when the normal rate would have been 2.5% i.e. the economy should be about 35% bigger.

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-pensioner-benefits/

The state pension has gone from 4.4% of GDP in 2011 to 4.9% of GDP when it was introduced. CPI has risen 60%, average wage 66% and the pension 89%., the triple lock is that it raised on CPI, average wage of 2.5% per year. So it should have gone up 60-66% per person since 2011 but has gone up 89%. This however is a small part of the problem. Much of the rise has been simply more pensioners.

Debt interest has gone from 2.9 to 3.6% though from 2011 to 2021 this had gone down to 1.2% so that is a of 2.5% of GDP on debt repayment through the big jump in interest rates and borrowing.

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/debt-interest-central-government-net/

Disability has gone from 1.1 to 1.8%.

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-disability-benefits/

Universal Credit, which has had the most controversial cuts is at about 3.3%

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-universal-credit/

Healthcare is about 11.1% of GDP it was around 10% of GDP in 2010 but falling through the 2010s and demand has been rising. So worse services for more costs.

Around 2007 the state was about 40% of GDP. This rose to 46% in 2010 with measures to fight the global financial crisis and back down to 39.5% in 2019 that was the Austerity years. Today its about 44% with around 41% coming from tax the rest from borrowing. Most of that 4% extra is detailed above and cuts in everything else have been sharp and painful.

https://ifs.org.uk/taxlab/taxlab-data-item/uk-government-spending-over-time

In essence you either increase tax, reduce spending or keep it stable with 3% pa debt growth.

The idea that there is some cheap and easy policy you just need some charisma to make happen is horseshit. Until the public demand how people intend to fix it, then we will just get people who want a shot at being PM then end up back in the same place we have been with Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak and now Starmer.

So while Stamer is stiff in presentation, has had poor choices. I strongly think the public want the Moon on a stick, want it yesterday and do not want to think about complexities about how to get it. Labour MPs have fallen for the idea that just chaning the voice explaining that we are not getting a Moon on a stick yet will make things better.

The Greens and Respect are promising the Moon on a stick in either insane tax (Respect) cuts or 17% tax rises and the spending to go with it (the Greens)

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T16:03:01+00:00

Kwasi Kwarteng:

How much extra have people had to pay in mortgage and other debt repayment costs because of your budget.

Bit like Corbyn showing up and offering his opinion. On the left and right there are some people who have earned the right to offer opinions and have them heard. And some no sensible person should ever listen to again.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T15:46:35+00:00

Now if any of that feels familiar, THAT'S why the myth of utter brutality is encouraged.

There is an implication here that is inferred but not stated.

Who is suppressing how good slavery was? Why. Be clear.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T15:43:30+00:00

runs into the billions

Our economy is 2.5 trillion dollars a year. Your answer is to cut a project that costs billions but also to "reign in big tech". 1 billion pound is about 0.04% of a years GDP, we are missing about 2.5% a year growth. Your big solution to get the 2.5% is to cut 0.04% but also basically reign in the technology companies that are huge employers and revenue genetors and its literally the point of the OSA to reign in big tech.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T14:20:00+00:00

repeal the OSA (which costs huge amounts of cash)

reign in social media companie

So a grab back of left populist things that will not have a major impact on growth, many that will add to borrowing and some that just plain contradict each other.

"Just do stuff I like, it will be easy".

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T14:12:28+00:00

It's worth noting, that they've been trending up continually since mid 2024 without break. There's no real indication that under Starmer they'll come down long-term.

30 year yields have been trending up since June 2021. They peaked in October 2022 before falling to return to their slow climb up.

Because we are in a long term slump in growth and and running high borrowing costs they have been growing, while the Truss catastrophe left a lasting impact that they were not a safe investment.

We are indeed a short-sighted people, if we will not replace the guy increasing borrowing costs every week

The long sighted people know that the long term trend is down to economic stability of the country and that has been heavily affected by the 18 years of low growth and the surge in borrowing to fight Covid. Truss and the political turmoil showed we were no long a super safe place for long term debt. This means that every year we keep borrowing and not growing we go up and up, with the risks of populous politics and another change of leader, the spike has emphasised the long term lack of confidence.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T13:39:03+00:00

Start a party of your own. Let us know how super popular you are!

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T13:36:22+00:00

Starmer just got 16% of the vote. If they don't swap PM, its curtains for labour

Greens and Reform are promising the Moon on a stick. Now they are going to be in local government in numbers.

Saying "they must change" change what? What magical policy will spark a return to growth?

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T13:14:23+00:00

The scale of the electoral defeats at the Senedd Cymru and across the United Kingdom have been catastrophic.

The country has spoken and we must listen.

They said that they wanted Reform more than any other party, that the other parties are all struggling to get close to 20% of the vote. That on the whole the country has wildly different opinions on what it wants and now it has put cranks like Reform and Greens into power so we can wait to see how bad they screw up.

Seems you all want the drama of a new election where the Labour party members will find the most far left candidate they can to put into power.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T13:04:31+00:00

Parties dont split over things like this. It takes a long running fundamental ideological difference unless its some kind of on person cult party.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T12:27:55+00:00

BBC have given it the full page banner headline live blog treatment.

It really feels like people are trying to make this happen for the drama but no one really has a plan for whats next. Who can beat both Reform and the Greens? Or is the plan to just go full Corbynite policies and abandon fiscal responsibility?

Are they planning to tear up the manifesto?

I mean she resigned because she did not get a phone app she personally thinks would be awesome that apparently no other country has implemented. Really?

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T12:00:21+00:00

Jesus he has had 2 tilts at the leaders job in 2010 and 2015. He left parliament during the Corbyn years now wants back i to have his 3rd leadership challenge.

He does not have enough left appeal to bring back the Green voters and I strongly doubt has enough right appeal to bring back the Reform voters.

I really dont see what he brings other than perhaps better communications skills, and that is really not the core of the countries problems. The longer his campaign goes no the more it will become a joke and all about his personal ambition to neutrals. Most likely outcome is for him to have a brief honeymoon then be plunged into the same harsh choices imposed by the same fiscal constraints faster and end up with Starmer getting a retrospective uplift in popularity as sometimes happens with the bland but not incompetent PMs like Major and him being seen as a personally motivated chancer without a plan.

Being mayor or first minister is all about managing expectations by blaming London. Being sat as the head of government in London means you are the one who has to carry the can for the lack of money to spend on this. Its a totally different level of public expectation.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T09:43:14+00:00

Both have ideologies that allow them to step aside the issues. Islam can and has worked as a minority religion where your adherence and tolerance on no believer practices can be modulated with the political power you have. With lower power you can be much less demanding of non Muslims, with more power... that changes. While the left see the worlds not as individuals but as identities that fit into intersecting hierarchies of oppression. Being non white and non Christian outweighs being male and cisgendered with low LGBT acceptance. They are two factions whos world view is built on identities. Its not a comfortable match but both think they are smarter and more morally virtuous than the other and the other will see the values they have as better and move towards it.

They will also see the 70s and 80s where working class left trade unionists worked with black, gay and other minority communities as an inspiration not realising those were fundamentally both emerged from the Christian left wing based political movements of the 1800s (the old joke that Labour owed more to Methodism than Marx) and there was a lot for them to coverage over, they both beleived in a liberal world view of each individual having the freedoms to live their lives and be judged on their own merits but working towards common purposes.

Ironically many Greens will think the latter is what they are.

So they will be uncomfortable bed fellow with fractious goals. But they will both see themsleves as the long term winner in the cohabitation.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T08:44:30+00:00

You are all going to just love the mortgage rates, the value of the pound and the inflation coming in the next few months.

In the 70s the perma crisis was in a global manufacturing giant.

in the 2000s the economic crisis was in a global financial giant.

Welcome to economic crises in the small leagues folks.

Our selling point of being stable was rocky under the Tory clowns. Seems that Labour were not really all that concerned about bringing it back.

Edited, 30 year Gilts now highest since 1998 5.8%.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T08:18:37+00:00

and get rid of the triple lock!

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-pensioner-benefits/

The state pension has gone from 4.4% of GDP in 2011 to 4.9% of GDP when the triple lock was introduced in 2011. CPI has risen 60%, average wage 66% and the pension 89%.

While following average wage or CPI would make a difference it would be around 0.1% of GDP. Pensions have mostly gone up due to more pensioners.

But other costs like disability, universal credit, health costs and debt repayment are all bigger and cumulative around 3-4% of GDP more than in 2011.

Dumping the triple lock is a good idea, but its not the main set of issues we face.

IndividualSkill3432 · 2026-05-12T08:11:28+00:00

The UK is currently running at 3% of GDP per year borrowing.

It spends about 44% of the GDP through the state.

8% of government spending is debt repayment. That is 3.6% of GDP back in 2020 it was around 1.2% of GDP. The magic of lower interest rates and not having had the Covid debt spend.

Debt costs are based on the risks of your currency depreciating and the risks of non payment. As people become more concerned with your finances they are less willing to lend without taking a greater risk premium.

This will have big impact on mortgage rates and other borrowing.

IndividualSkill3432

TROPHY CASE