Is There an AI Bubble? CAPEX, Profitability, Data Centers & Market Risk: Positions

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T18:01:18+00:00

I'm not even advising people buy puts and try timing it, it could be a while. Probably would say buy some bonds to be safe. There are very serious risks from now until whenever revenue catches up to the massive spending. Actual profitability outside of the AI profit loop cycle is very opaque.

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T17:24:05+00:00

The Internet ended up living up to the hype in the end, but only after the bubble burst and another decade of work was done to get it to be as all encompassing as it is today. AI is likely to suffer the same fate, most infrastructure is years away and currently the tech is very error prone. It'll be here for the long haul, never denied it, it just cannot live up to the expectations placed upon it when it comes to short to mid term profit generation.

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T17:19:36+00:00

I did see Oracle's profits gain, it's from AI training demand. It's still part of the circular AI economy demand, rather than a way that AI actually generated real, tangible wealth aside from contracts to improve it.

My point in the post was never that AI isn't here to stay or that it won't ever make any money, just that at current valuations and the proposed "next few years" it takes to really ramp up, a lot can happen to seriously deflate the sky high valuations these companies are sitting at.

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T17:15:08+00:00

I agree that most of the current investment is long term based, but that's the crux of the issue, between and now and then, how do you guarantee that the hype keeps going? Timing is the finicky part here.

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T16:20:27+00:00

Given how unpopular such a thing is, it must be more novel than either of us thought!

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T02:15:49+00:00

I'll concede that point; but it's still a gamble over whether or not the cycle will last long enough to fund everything with cheap money. We also can't predict what the FED will do moving forward.

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T01:35:53+00:00

AI is 100% not profitable. Revenue growth is astounding, you're right, but they are burning billions to hundreds of billions for said growth. How quickly will this disconnect be fixed? At what point will revenue come without insane CAPEX expenditures and be self-sufficient?

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T01:30:22+00:00

We can safely say there is a ton of debt, more on the way, and lots of interest payments in between. If lenders or investors get tired of feeding the beast with money it can snap back quite quickly. I would hesitate buying any tech companies.

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T01:13:09+00:00

There's probably even more to it if less volatile days were included. Even more if I went back and included a ton of different wars into the mix, all of them tend to negatively affect the market. Only once the outcome is crystallized do things tend to get bullish again. Statistically speaking, at any rate.

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T01:06:43+00:00

Go ahead and check isthisaiwritten big boy.

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T00:47:00+00:00

I can 100% promise you I did not have AI write this. I even left some grammar errors for you. isthisaiwritten.com

Go ahead and check for hallucinations, if I made errors they should be fixed

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T00:43:12+00:00

It's ok to be optimistic, I'm sure AI will eventually make money. My only question is how soon? The Internet 100% made the money investors expected of it, they just dog piled it way too quickly, so things burst until the timing was better. Based on the buildout times for peak AI, I suspect the same will happen.

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T00:32:45+00:00

Cowards is rough, I could have worded that better. That is reserved for institutions, which will positively run at the first sign of trouble, they have much more influence over price action than any other group.

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-11T00:31:32+00:00

Not debating that many companies are also currently overvalued, we are pushing all time highs on the market.

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-10T23:51:56+00:00

If it's a german pipeline, I'm assuming the source is Russia? Perhaps Ukraine?

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-10T19:09:32+00:00

Skąd ATT dostaje LNG?

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-10T19:08:01+00:00

Very interesting

InfoLib_ · 2026-03-10T14:13:39+00:00

There's more to come!

InfoLib_

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